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Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco


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I have to say, WGAL 8 has addressed the potential in probably the most responsible way for the "threat" being on the other side of the week.Very well done. I am incredibly interested to see if Weather World makes reference on tonight's broadcast.

Thanks! We're always careful to let the public know of the threat, but not pin down amounts until we're pretty confident. No sense in throwing out amounts and going "but it's not a forecast", or posting snow maps this early. The energy hasn't been fully analyzed by the sonde network yet! Still some changes to come, I'm sure.

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Question: I know everyone is thinking that something could go downhill since this has happened in the past many times, but what are the thoughts of this getting even better? Are we in a position to rival 96 in terms of snow amounts? I am in Lancaster county and I still remember I believe Matt saying we will be measuring this with a yardstick. Would love to hear that again. We have an incredible amount of energy and warmth nearby in the Atlantic which I know could be a blessing and a curse. I just wanted to see what others thought.

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If you take a look at 700 mb on the UKMET, Canadian, GFS and Euro OP...they all have a trailing connection the down to the Caribbean event as the storm is winding up off Delmarva and cranking out to sea.  That's a hallmark of a big one.

also read that the Euro showed a potential stall right at the delmarva once it closes off/captures.... :whistle:

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18z GFS has a beautiful banana high stretched from Eastern Canada flanking the western edge of the storm all the way down to Corpus Christi, TX.  In eastern Canada it's a 1036 mb strength...really nice to see.

 

One concern is that it's going to have a lot of folks along ans east of I-95 mixing.  Even Lancaster and Berks County probably go all sleet for a time.

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Question: I know everyone is thinking that something could go downhill since this has happened in the past many times, but what are the thoughts of this getting even better? Are we in a position to rival 96 in terms of snow amounts? I am in Lancaster county and I still remember I believe Matt saying we will be measuring this with a yardstick. Would love to hear that again. We have an incredible amount of energy and warmth nearby in the Atlantic which I know could be a blessing and a curse. I just wanted to see what others thought.

I think the postitves/takeaways from the last 24 hours is the strong consensus/low spread in plausible outcomes.....

 

theres gonna be a storm.  

 

At 4 days out....thats a BIG takeway.  Most of us being sensible weenies (outside of taggers), know thats all we can ask for at this juncture.  Thats why I'm giddy.  WAY to early for IMBY forcasting to start.  That 45" lollipop the euro showed this afternoon in eastern WVA could be in VA, to VT by gametime.  Its gonna snow...and snow lots....now we figure out exactly where.  Tomorrow night when the shortwave hits the West coast and better data sampling becomes available...things will start coming into focus.  At 46...i've seen this all too often, and while thats not a very meteorologically savvy answer...its the best one I got.

 

Nut

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If you take a look at 700 mb on the UKMET, Canadian, GFS and Euro OP...they all have a trailing connection the down to the Caribbean event as the storm is winding up off Delmarva and cranking out to sea.  That's a hallmark of a big one.

 

Another hallmark is the 850mb zonal wind anomalies are a tremendous -6 to -8 standard deviations per the Euro (GFS is similar too). That kind of an easterly fetch off of the Atlantic alone would add solid support to the very high snow amounts that have been being put out on the models. I think Feb 4-6, 2010 had something to the tune of -4 to -6. Crazy.

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Another hallmark is the 850mb zonal wind anomalies are a tremendous -6 to -8 standard deviations per the Euro (GFS is similar too). That kind of an easterly fetch off of the Atlantic alone would add solid support to the very high snow amounts that have been being put out on the models. I think Feb 4-6, 2010 had something to the tune of -4 to -6. Crazy.

Both Dec 2009 and Feb 4-6, 2010 did.  Don't wait this to be any further west, or mixing for a lot of people.

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