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Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco


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Closes off at 500mb in the perfect spot, 500 low tracks south of DC which is excellent for C PA.  This looks great.  NCEP site is slow, so I won't bother posting images.  

Is it closed off at 700?  can see that on Ttidbits...

 

Im stuck at 114  :whistle:

 

the suspense is killing me.  Hearng in Mid atlantic, that Northern MD is 30+...and still snowing.

 

O

M

 

G

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question for the mets.

 

What confidence does the GFS give you at T-110 hrs till liftoff?  

 

does this still hold much weight in comparison to the King (in regards to it being so consistant.  Do you like how the evolution is shown based on what your looking at.

 

Based on the GFS, any caution flags?

 

Nut

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The 12z GFS closes off the 500 hPa low a bit earlier and farther west than the 06z run. This allows for the surface low to intensify sooner along the coastal baroclinic zone. The system then begins to occlude as it reaches peak intensity just east of the Delmarva peninsula, placing much of central PA in the region favorable for mesoscale banding. If the system occludes a bit later, it may stall off the coast of New England and place south central PA in the banding region for a shorter amount of time.

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question for the mets.

 

What confidence does the GFS give you at T-110 hrs till liftoff?  

 

does this still hold much wait in comparison to the King (in regards to it being so consistant.  Do you like how the evolution is shown based on what your looking at.

 

Based on the GFS, any caution flags?

 

Nut

 

Well if you lock in the GFS at 100+ hours, you may need several of these to get through the week...

 

post-869-0-48240800-1453135162_thumb.jpg

 

But seriously, as others have mentioned, I think we will need to wait until the shortwave ridge is fully sampled by the radiosonde network before becoming too confident in model guidance.

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Well if you lock in the GFS at 100+ hours, you may need several of these to get through the week...

 

attachicon.gif20160118_113631.jpg

 

But seriously, as others have mentioned, I think we will need to wait until the shortwave ridge is fully sampled by the radiosonde network before becoming too confident in model guidance.

I get that (and will likely be partaking in something while staring at the puter in the coming days)...and understood.  I guess my question is really more of a "what model has the best 5 day skill scores" (knowing that we are still 1+ days from landfall of the shortwave).  I know the "old" GFS overamped....the "old" King held energy back in the SW...but if I read correctly, the updates have fixed these biases...no?  

 

Nut

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I get that (and will likely be partaking in something while staring at the puter in the coming days)...and understood.  I guess my question is really more of a "what model has the best 5 day skill scores" (knowing that we are still 1+ days from landfall of the shortwave).  I know the "old" GFS overamped....the "old" King held energy back in the SW...but if I read correctly, the updates have fixed these biases...no?  

 

Nut

 

For the northern hemisphere, the Euro has higher skill at day 5 than the rest of the guidance. I'm not sure about specific biases that come into play during east coat cyclogenesis though.

 

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

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For the northern hemisphere, the Euro has higher skill at day 5 than the rest of the guidance. I'm not sure about specific biases that come into play during east coat cyclogenesis though.

 

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

thank you.  I've seen the skill scores posted, but do not know where ya'll get em...

 

will be interessting with the new upgrades to see if the GFS can bridge the gap.

 

The lower the anomaly score...the better the verification...correct?

 

Nut

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