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Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco


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ok I am going to do text output precip for 0z GFS just because again these are absolutely ridiculous...

 

   MDT - 3.49"

    AOO - 1.69"

    JST - 1.39"

    IPT - 1.79"

    AVP - 1.9"

    PIT - 1.19"

    UNV - 1.58"

    LNS - 2.67"

    THV - 3.7"

    HGR - 2.93"

    KFIG - 1.03"

    KROC - .25"

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are snowfall to liquid ratios available?

 

At Hour 138 there's a strip of -5 to -10 ºC 850 temps that drop into eastern Penn coinciding with the monster CCB. I would say def better than 10-1 during that timeframe but regardless I have no words for that GFS run. This mornings Euro parallel, todays 12z Euro, and this 0z GFS monstrosity have gotta be the most insane computer model runs I've ever seen. 

 

It might be in our region or it might not be but something big's gonna go down, even if this system doesn't get captured and stall we're still probably looking at a significant albeit maybe not historic snowstorm since this should be a moisture laden system with it's Gulf and Atlantic moisture sources.

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I just reviewed the GFS regional snow map for our area.

I have never seen numbers like this in my 20 + years of closely following the weather. I know all of the disclaimers about the " clown" maps, especially 5 days out. But to see 38 inches at Harrisburg & 39 inches at York, there are no words to describe it. I mean, to see an 8 inch storm only happens every few years. An 18 inch storm starts to flirt with top 10 all time for Harrisburg. A 28 inch storm would beat the all time record from 1983. 38 inches is uncharted territory !!!

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I just spent a few minutes reviewing the GEFS & it is fine for us.

There are 12 of the 21 ensemble members that are VERY good hits.

No suprise with the GFS, but The low positions & timing are extremely out of sync, which causes the mean low position at any specific time stamp for the mean to be heavily skewed by FEW members that are outliers that are way out to sea. The mean precip is just under 1 inch for the LSV and the snow mean was near 8 inches, which was similar to the EPS mean from earlier today.

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Well, the extreme southern Sus Valley and SE PA up to Allentown might get some moderate snow with light snow maybe getting further up into NE PA , but tonight's 0z Euro looks to be about a complete miss for the rest of the C-PA region. Looks more progressive and the storm gets captured further east. Ends up winding up the low fairly close to the coast but CCB is pretty tight this go around. Ends up looking more like last nights 0z Euro. 

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Euro shows 6 inches for Harrisburg area.

Canadian had us at 20 inches.

The GFS had us at 38 inches.

What a roller coaster...

I'd be thrilled with the average of these 3 models,

which for Harrisburg would be 21 inches.

This is going to a long, emotional week of tracking.

That is an insane gradient on the Euro!!! From 6 inches in Harrisburg, to almost two feet on south east York County. Let's see what the EPS show. I doubt the gradient will be as tight as the euro op shows.
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Well, the extreme southern Sus Valley and SE PA up to Allentown might get some moderate snow with light snow maybe getting further up into NE PA , but tonight's 0z Euro looks to be about a complete miss for the rest of the C-PA region. Looks more progressive and the storm gets captured further east. Ends up winding up the low fairly close to the coast but CCB is pretty tight this go around. Ends up looking more like last nights 0z Euro. 

 

 

Euro shows 6 inches for Harrisburg area.

Canadian had us at 20 inches.

The GFS had us at 38 inches.

What a roller coaster...

I'd be thrilled with the average of these 3 models,

which for Harrisburg would be 21 inches.

This is going to a long, emotional week of tracking.

 that Euro from this morning, wow! What a gradient. Just south and East of us, some of those folks are 3'

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