anotherman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 F off 7am work...I'm staying up for the EURO now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I mean, has there EVER been a model run that depicts this may qpf in winter? This has to be a historic run - the H5 cutoff is textbook stuff. Now watch the Euro shift 300 miles SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What time is Euro - 12:30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'll check in later but this is why I come to this place. Perhaps a new thread would be in order if the euro comes in hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 First post of the season. A run like that was worth coming out of my slumber! Scared to be in the "model bullseye" this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 ok I am going to do text output precip for 0z GFS just because again these are absolutely ridiculous... MDT - 3.49" AOO - 1.69" JST - 1.39" IPT - 1.79" AVP - 1.9" PIT - 1.19" UNV - 1.58" LNS - 2.67" THV - 3.7" HGR - 2.93" KFIG - 1.03" KROC - .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 CMC is a solid hit for most, though it backed down from its insane 12z run. SEPA back to LSV 1.75+ with sharp cut from there. Not much of a distance before dropping to <1.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS is as wound up as you can tolerate without significant mixing issues for everyone. Still...wow...just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 are snowfall to liquid ratios available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Whats kroc output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 are snowfall to liquid ratios available? At Hour 138 there's a strip of -5 to -10 ºC 850 temps that drop into eastern Penn coinciding with the monster CCB. I would say def better than 10-1 during that timeframe but regardless I have no words for that GFS run. This mornings Euro parallel, todays 12z Euro, and this 0z GFS monstrosity have gotta be the most insane computer model runs I've ever seen. It might be in our region or it might not be but something big's gonna go down, even if this system doesn't get captured and stall we're still probably looking at a significant albeit maybe not historic snowstorm since this should be a moisture laden system with it's Gulf and Atlantic moisture sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 00z UKIE is more like the Euro than GFS. Obviously lower snowfall, but colder for this subforum and a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I just reviewed the GFS regional snow map for our area. I have never seen numbers like this in my 20 + years of closely following the weather. I know all of the disclaimers about the " clown" maps, especially 5 days out. But to see 38 inches at Harrisburg & 39 inches at York, there are no words to describe it. I mean, to see an 8 inch storm only happens every few years. An 18 inch storm starts to flirt with top 10 all time for Harrisburg. A 28 inch storm would beat the all time record from 1983. 38 inches is uncharted territory !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEFS are further east than the OP, at least mean-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The Canadian only gives Harrisburg 20 inches... I guess I could live with that ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEFS continues downward trend. The 00z GFS OP was a great temporary high, but this event still has a lot that has to go right. Still leaning toward a bust for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If 20 inches is a bust, then I must be in heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 I should add that many member have less than 4" of snow, some are total shutouts for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I just spent a few minutes reviewing the GEFS & it is fine for us. There are 12 of the 21 ensemble members that are VERY good hits. No suprise with the GFS, but The low positions & timing are extremely out of sync, which causes the mean low position at any specific time stamp for the mean to be heavily skewed by FEW members that are outliers that are way out to sea. The mean precip is just under 1 inch for the LSV and the snow mean was near 8 inches, which was similar to the EPS mean from earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 So far through 96 hr the Euro's coming out faster and a bit weaker than the 12z run and the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well, the extreme southern Sus Valley and SE PA up to Allentown might get some moderate snow with light snow maybe getting further up into NE PA , but tonight's 0z Euro looks to be about a complete miss for the rest of the C-PA region. Looks more progressive and the storm gets captured further east. Ends up winding up the low fairly close to the coast but CCB is pretty tight this go around. Ends up looking more like last nights 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro shows 6 inches for Harrisburg area. Canadian had us at 20 inches. The GFS had us at 38 inches. What a roller coaster... I'd be thrilled with the average of these 3 models, which for Harrisburg would be 21 inches. This is going to a long, emotional week of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro shows 6 inches for Harrisburg area. Canadian had us at 20 inches. The GFS had us at 38 inches. What a roller coaster... I'd be thrilled with the average of these 3 models, which for Harrisburg would be 21 inches. This is going to a long, emotional week of tracking. That is an insane gradient on the Euro!!! From 6 inches in Harrisburg, to almost two feet on south east York County. Let's see what the EPS show. I doubt the gradient will be as tight as the euro op shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro will be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Right back to the double-gut punch I see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 We're getting trolled...looks like it is going to be an interesting week. How soon before the low will be making landfall in the US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Right back to the double-gut punch I see... I don't want to panic yet, but...haven't we NEPA'ers seen this story before? I really don't want to see another I-95 special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't want to panic yet, but...haven't we NEPA'ers seen this story before? I really don't want to see another I-95 special... Yep. We'll see these solutions, people will say "No way the precip shield stays that tight"...and then it will. Might need the complaining thread again soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well, the extreme southern Sus Valley and SE PA up to Allentown might get some moderate snow with light snow maybe getting further up into NE PA , but tonight's 0z Euro looks to be about a complete miss for the rest of the C-PA region. Looks more progressive and the storm gets captured further east. Ends up winding up the low fairly close to the coast but CCB is pretty tight this go around. Ends up looking more like last nights 0z Euro. Euro shows 6 inches for Harrisburg area. Canadian had us at 20 inches. The GFS had us at 38 inches. What a roller coaster... I'd be thrilled with the average of these 3 models, which for Harrisburg would be 21 inches. This is going to a long, emotional week of tracking. that Euro from this morning, wow! What a gradient. Just south and East of us, some of those folks are 3' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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