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Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco


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A lot has to come together for this to work out.  A few things to remember to keep everyone grounded:

 

1.) We're 5+ days out.

2.) The high to the northwest is right on the threshold (1030mb).  If the coastal trends too strong it will run further inland (a la 12z CMC) and flood the coastal plain with warm air.

3.) The initial low on the EURO drive into GA/TN.  If that trends too strong or the coastal doesn't crank fast then it's weenie suicide for all.

4.)  Looks like the Pacific energy comes onshore Tuesday night / Wednesday.  Despite the recent advances in satellites and such, I still like to wait for systems to get into the denser observation network of North America.  Do not be surprised if the 00z - 12z models Wednesday illustrate a trend.

5.)  The EURO is alone in showing a powerhouse hit and should be considered the upper end.  The GEFS and GFS OP right now only have about a 8" - 14" of snow south of I-80.  Fun for some, but not really a significant storm since it happens on a weekend and the roads will be quickly cleaned up.

6.) Beware the clown snowfall maps beyond 48 hours.  Do not focus on the "sweet spots" shifting from county to county each run. The difference in the snowfall map algorithms vary greatly from each paid site (Eurowx.com, Wx Bell, Storm Vista, etc.) 

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A lot has to come together for this to work out.  A few things to remember to keep everyone grounded:

 

1.) We're 5+ days out.

2.) The high to the northwest is right on the threshold (1030mb).  If the coastal trends too strong it will run further inland (a la 12z CMC) and flood the coastal plain with warm air.

3.) The initial low on the EURO drive into GA/TN.  If that trends too strong or the coastal doesn't crank fast then it's weenie suicide for all.

4.)  Looks like the Pacific energy comes onshore Tuesday night / Wednesday.  Despite the recent advances in satellites and such, I still like to wait for systems to get into the denser observation network of North America.  Do not be surprised if the 00z - 12z models Wednesday illustrate a trend.

5.)  The EURO is alone in showing a powerhouse hit and should be considered the upper end.  The GEFS and GFS OP right now only have about a 8" - 14" of snow south of I-80.  Fun for some, but not really a significant storm since it happens on a weekend and the roads will be quickly cleaned up.

6.) Beware the clown snowfall maps beyond 48 hours.  Do not focus on the "sweet spots" shifting from county to county each run. The difference in the snowfall map algorithms vary greatly from each paid site (Eurowx.com, Wx Bell, Storm Vista, etc.)

Excuse me, but 8-14" snow IS a significant storm. 6"+ is significant.
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A lot has to come together for this to work out.  A few things to remember to keep everyone grounded:

 

1.) We're 5+ days out.

2.) The high to the northwest is right on the threshold (1030mb).  If the coastal trends too strong it will run further inland (a la 12z CMC) and flood the coastal plain with warm air.

3.) The initial low on the EURO drive into GA/TN.  If that trends too strong or the coastal doesn't crank fast then it's weenie suicide for all.

4.)  Looks like the Pacific energy comes onshore Tuesday night / Wednesday.  Despite the recent advances in satellites and such, I still like to wait for systems to get into the denser observation network of North America.  Do not be surprised if the 00z - 12z models Wednesday illustrate a trend.

5.)  The EURO is alone in showing a powerhouse hit and should be considered the upper end.  The GEFS and GFS OP right now only have about a 8" - 14" of snow south of I-80.  Fun for some, but not really a significant storm since it happens on a weekend and the roads will be quickly cleaned up.

6.) Beware the clown snowfall maps beyond 48 hours.  Do not focus on the "sweet spots" shifting from county to county each run. The difference in the snowfall map algorithms vary greatly from each paid site (Eurowx.com, Wx Bell, Storm Vista, etc.) 

 

I agree with this for the most part. I think a lot will depend on how the shortwave ridge that reaches the west coast amplifies. The orientation and strength of this ridge will impact the strength and track of the primary low, and thus the degree of secondary cyclogenesis along the east coast. As you rightly state, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the eventual impacts this system will have in central PA.

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The prospects of a formidable storm for the region are growing over the past 24 hours with Euro Op and Ensembles really coming into the picture with a potential MECS for Friday-Sunday. Of course, the surface reflection and maps are fine to look at now, but the important thing to keep in mind is the H5 representation over the next few days. This has been a complex setup for a while due to the amount of energy in the playing field.

The ridge out west like Heavy pointed out is going to be big because that will lead to major implications on the trough amplification down stream. Also, from experience, the southern stream has been crazy moist this year due to the Nino so models have not been doing a good job on the QPF shield and placement with developing low pressures. Still a lot of variables to be solved at 4.5-5 day leads, but the analogs and Ensemble depiction so far has been very nice to see if you want a potential big snow.

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Euro text output... Im not the greatest when it comes to ratios so if someone could chime in but to me looks to be better than 10:1 and these precip totals are absurd...

 

MDT - 1.85"

AOO - 2.09"

JST - 1.98"

IPT -1.48"

AVP - 1.59"

PIT - 1.88"

UNV - 1.77"

LNS - 1.81"

THV - 1.89"

HGR - 1.89"

 

what other airports does everyone want?

kfig

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The 12 z Euro Ensemble mean has the best look of the year for CTP through our late week event. The 51 member mean showed about 6 inches for the northern tier of PA & closer to 10 inches toward the LSV.

Many very nice looking hits on the individual members.

still trending in a good way....

 

ALL of us would take 6-12" and consider it a huge win this year...despite what the models are showing.  We all know what can happen, as well as what needs to happen, but are happy to see such a strong consensus w/ the Op and Ens runs of basically every major model.  Can it go wrong sure, but were 24 hrs into what is really our first legitimate threat...so I'm just going to enjoy watching this unfold.

 

25" or less..........toss it...........

 

 

My arse!!

 

Nut

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Ugh...I hope not. Those were agonizing. Much easier to take a cutter than to be on the wrong side of a sharp gradient.

Iso has a great write up in the Med term discussions.  He thinks there will be a relaxation (albeit brief) and that AO and NAO should trend back into the - column for Feb, w/ more sustained blocking (especially if we can finally bust up the PV already).  Go check it out.  

 

he too feels suppression for this storm is also a possibliity.  

 

Nut

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Stop. Both of you just stop.

 

That was the 18z GFS. If there's a model run that is useless outside of printing for toilet paper, right there it is. I'm not going to begin photoshopping horrible pictures of headstones and writing your screennames on them with marginal humor because you're panicking over the 18z Go **** Yourself model run.

 

Give it a few days. If Euro and Euro Para start doing that, I'll be around with Jim Jones grape drank.

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