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Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco


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Well, to be fair, I believe the NWS should stay away from forecasting something like this until 72 hrs, minimum. Too many people rely solely on their forecasts to risk a major panic for something that could end up a colossal bust

Just refer to NYC last year. 2 feet of a snow and they announce a blizzard and they get a regular snowstorm.
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I'm not saying that they should start up the hype machine now.

A simple mention or a minor discussion of possibilities should be provided

at this time. Mt. Holly's discussion gave this potential storm 1 nice paragraph going over a few model tracks & possibility of snow, rain or a miss.

It's not like we are talking about a possible clipper. With what is on the table

of possibilities, it should be mentioned at this juncture.

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Thx Mag.  As your staring and glaring at the pic....focus on the grey area and tell me what what the Para is doing to the CPA crew.....

 

:whistle:

 

Dare I say that pic prob give some of folks "woodies"

 

(sorry....I couldnt resist)

 

Nut

 

I was so busy being a  :weenie: looking at my county in 36-40" that I didn't even notice the actual  :weenie: haha. 

 

GFS has a somewhat decent hit for PA but it's still def the more progressive model (big surprise) and not quite as heavy with the precip as last night and weaker with the low. The Euro capture and cutoff is what turns this from what probably would be your usual sizeable moisture laden Miller A to something ridiculous. Looks like the Canadian has more of a Miller B look (in the right spot for C-PA to capitalize) with a transfer to a deep coastal that hugs the coast.

 

One thing to worry about somewhat if models go more for a Miller B is p-types of course if we end up with a primary west of the mountains that drives up more. Although the overall pattern could suggest that might not happen, there's no anchored 500 ridge in the west.  Instead, the ridge progresses along with both the Euro and GFS except the 0z Euro of course phases and cuts the storm off. I think the progression could help push the storm and keep the low under us... although not enough phasing could also push the thing too far under us too. Lots to sort out this week. 

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Precip into the SW 1/4 of PA at 126hr and most of PA at 132hr. Pretty heavy snow south of I-80 at 138hr and southern half of the state still getting hammered at 144hr. Northern mainly moderate snow. For the Pit gang you guys are def involved with this too. 

 

12z Euro is going to put some big numbers up in the southern half of the state, wow.

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Euro text output... Im not the greatest when it comes to ratios so if someone could chime in but to me looks to be better than 10:1 and these precip totals are absurd...

 

MDT - 1.85"

AOO - 2.09"

JST - 1.98"

IPT -1.48"

AVP - 1.59"

PIT - 1.88"

UNV - 1.77"

LNS - 1.81"

THV - 1.89"

HGR - 1.89"

 

what other airports does everyone want?

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I only have this for a few more days so here take a look at the clown map.

 

 

Man that's a large swath of PA in 16"+. When's the last time Washington,PA was in a bullseye with 27"? Lol

 

I could also add that there's a region of -8ºC  850 temps in south central PA that's around during the height of this too, so ratios could def be higher than 10-1. One step at a time though. 

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This could blow to pieces everyones snow totals in our pool!

On my phone looking so could be wrong, is our high for Friday-Sat 36-38?

I haven't even made an update on it, but let's say it's basically very little across the board. This will change it lmao

I've updated the totals, just no written update. Been fairly boring. Lots of T's

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