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Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco


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Have ended up with about an inch of fresh powder this evening from the area of snow that pushed in from western PA with it still snowing currently. High ratio snow as well, there was a couple good bursts with some nice sized aggregates. 

 

Models haven't looked all that great for this weekend affair as of late. PA seems to be stuck in between the Lakes low and the developing coastal as there has looked to be less interaction (phasing) between the two. This limits both timely cold air intrusion as well as precip in general in PA as the coastal low ends up weaker and further to the east. We could end up having some last minute comeback but I'm not sure we could get the Sus Valley involved given the marginal air mass. 

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Have ended up with about an inch of fresh powder this evening from the area of snow that pushed in from western PA with it still snowing currently. High ratio snow as well, there was a couple good bursts with some nice sized aggregates. 

 

Models haven't looked all that great for this weekend affair as of late. PA seems to be stuck in between the Lakes low and the developing coastal as there has looked to be less interaction (phasing) between the two. This limits both timely cold air intrusion as well as precip in general in PA as the coastal low ends up weaker and further to the east. We could end up having some last minute comeback but I'm not sure we could get the Sus Valley involved given the marginal air mass. 

looks like at least 2" additional inches overnight here.

didnt measure but judging from whats on my car.

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a million vorts, yet no snow. WTF.

Yep....pattern changed....but we cant buy a break round here. 

 

At least its cold....but i HATE wasted cold....

 

Hoping they keep it up in northern pa and points north and east for those that rely on it.

 

My sleds are bored....

 

Nut

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Nut , did you see the video on facebook of the sled hitting the deer?

Nope....linky please.

 

I've got a couple friends that have knicked them and know of guys ending up in the hospital from it.

 

Been snowmobiling virtually for a few weeks now.  Thank God for snowcams.... :cry: .

 

Nut

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Actually the Euro is the only model suppressing it with its latest run.  GFS, CMC, GEFS, EPS, UK all showing big hits of varying strengths for CPA.  GFS gives us (LSV especially) over a foot and the CMC gives us 2 Feet with 2 1/2 feet Lanco and eastward.  There's been a lot of great discussion down in the mid atlantic forum where I've been getting my "post fixes" for the last few weeks since there's been almost nothing going on around here...lol.

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Wow....a lot of us are in the 24" bullseye now.  I want to think of 1983 but the evolution of this storm is totally different.  BTW, no need to think that I believe this is how this storm is going to play out in the end.  I've been around too long and seen way more busts than many of you here.  But, at least as of this moment this storm has a serious amount of model support.  Even though the Euro op suppressed, many of its ensemble members showed the storm much further north.

 

(Edit...recent comments by DT seem to indicate that the current depiction of the storm evolution actually is similar to that of 1983.  That storm was a fantastic storm as I was a first year student in Optometry school in Philly.  I kept listening to KYW for every Accuweather report.  This storm even got Joel Meyers to do a few broadcasts, along with John Cosett, Dave Bowers, and probably JB and Elliott Abrams.  Philly international recorded 21.3" officially which made it the single biggest snowstorm in recorded history at the time.  It was also the first time I witnessed lightning and thunder in a snowstorm.  I remember it like it was yesterday.)

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Check out the 18z GFS output for KMDT:

 

160123/0000Z 150 07015KT 28.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0
160123/0300Z 153 07015KT 30.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117 8:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 156 05023KT 32.4F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 0.163 5:1| 1.6|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 0.35 11| 86| 3
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0900Z 159 03024KT 31.0F SNOW 16:1| 8.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.531 11:1| 10.1|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 0.88 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 162 01025KT 30.6F SNOW 18:1|16.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.896 15:1| 26.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.77 100| 0| 0
160123/1500Z 165 01021KT 31.0F SNOW 8:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.396 14:1| 29.7|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 2.17 100| 0| 0
160123/1800Z 168 35023KT 31.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 14:1| 30.1|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 2.22 100| 0| 0

 

Yes, that's 16.3 inches of snow in a 3 hour period.  :lol:

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