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Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco


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Congrats, guys.  While the squall arrival was impressive with a gust to 30mph and a temp drop from 38 to 32 in like 5 minutes, radar depictions were correct in showing that the squall line began to fracture right over me with more north and south, ultimately leaving me with a tiny coating that I couldn't even call 0.1".  Nevertheless, there is whiteness on the ground and it was very enjoyable watching it arrive just like a thunderstom squall line in the summertime.

 

BTW, did anyone else see the rainbow Sunday afternoon after the rain was pulling out of here?  I think that was the first time I've ever seen a rainbow in January.  Fairly rare for these parts I would suspect.

 

I see NWS hasn't pulled the mention of snow with the rain event this weekend and other posts I've read seem to indicate that our area might be improving just barely enough with the coastal to give us something more than just a cold rain.  Here's hoping.

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Congrats, guys.  While the squall arrival was impressive with a gust to 30mph and a temp drop from 38 to 32 in like 5 minutes, radar depictions were correct in showing that the squall line began to fracture right over me with more north and south, ultimately leaving me with a tiny coating that I couldn't even call 0.1".  Nevertheless, there is whiteness on the ground and it was very enjoyable watching it arrive just like a thunderstom squall line in the summertime.

 

BTW, did anyone else see the rainbow Sunday afternoon after the rain was pulling out of here?  I think that was the first time I've ever seen a rainbow in January.  Fairly rare for these parts I would suspect.

 

I see NWS hasn't pulled the mention of snow with the rain event this weekend and other posts I've read seem to indicate that our area might be improving just barely enough with the coastal to give us something more than just a cold rain.  Here's hoping.

Yep i saw the rainbow. I've never seen one with so many different colors. We counted 7 variations of colors

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Congrats, guys.  While the squall arrival was impressive with a gust to 30mph and a temp drop from 38 to 32 in like 5 minutes, radar depictions were correct in showing that the squall line began to fracture right over me with more north and south, ultimately leaving me with a tiny coating that I couldn't even call 0.1".  Nevertheless, there is whiteness on the ground and it was very enjoyable watching it arrive just like a thunderstom squall line in the summertime.

 

BTW, did anyone else see the rainbow Sunday afternoon after the rain was pulling out of here?  I think that was the first time I've ever seen a rainbow in January.  Fairly rare for these parts I would suspect.

 

I see NWS hasn't pulled the mention of snow with the rain event this weekend and other posts I've read seem to indicate that our area might be improving just barely enough with the coastal to give us something more than just a cold rain.  Here's hoping.

Saw the rainbow times 2. Very vibrant "main" rainbow with a faint 2nd one below it. 

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I'm guessing the overnight models killed the weekend storm possibility for us?

first one came around yesterday and raised eybrows.  Now eyes back closed.  It still is a nice storm and is going to be close for the interior locals (back in 2001 kx country maybe??).

 

second is a close miss as well.  Still better to be tracking something winteryish....then shorts n t's.  

 

Long range sounds like its REALLY up in the air now, as blocking (NAO/AO)may not stick around as once thought, but poss SSW and normal Feb Nino climo to hopefully feed some of us down the line.  Doesn't sound horrible, but doesn't sound great either.  

From what I read, some analogs are nasty...and some still nice.

 

Nut

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I'm guessing the overnight models killed the weekend storm possibility for us?

The models really have not changed much over the past few days other than timing/speed of when coastal low becomes primary... which has it look like a near miss on some runs and makes it look a little interesting on others... that looks to be key on if we have a chance or no chance at all... can it get just cold enough or do we have 30s and rain?

 

The AO looks to be heading toward peak negative values this weekend which is good typically for hopes of east coast storm

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

ao.sprd2.gif

 

NAO is also remaining negative which again is typically good for east coast

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

nao.sprd2.gif

 

PNA looks set to remain positive which favors ridge in west and trough in east

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

so we have several things in our favor... just a matter now of is it a close miss temperature/track wise or do some of us get at least a little bit of snow?

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The H5 orientation of the vort is really nice for the coast, but the interaction between it and the ULL to the NW isn't enough so the system becomes not captured and the storm slides off to the NE. If we can get more interaction with the northern stream and potentially close off to the south of the MD, the system will tilt the qpf shield further to the NW and expand as the storm deepens and we can develop a deformation axis around the 95 corridor instead of along the coastal plain. Will be interesting to see the 12z ensemble package and what the Euro will be up to.

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