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Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco


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The storm next weekend looked very interesting on a couple of Euro products.

The EPS ensemble mean at 12z takes the low from Tennessee up to the Kentucky/West VA border, but then shifts the low to secondary off the coast of VA, and then it takes the low northeast from there. There is is good cluster of low tracks that are in a great spot off the coast for our region for snow.

The EPS ensemble mean produces about 3 inches of snow in the LSV, with closer to 6 inches further north in CTP by this time next weekend.

The new Upgraded Euro or "Para" Euro operational 12z run today showed a similar track that I discussed above as the EPS ensemble mean.

The snow amounts were much better however for those of us in the LSV.

It produced about 9 inches of snow at MDT.

So, we have the best model ensemble mean, & many of its individual members,that would work for decent snow for us.

We also have the best operational model, with its Upgraded higher resolution model that is set to replace the existing Euro operational on March 8th, showing a good track & snow totals that would get the snow party started.

Hopefully the Euro will lead the way, as it has repeatedly done over the years,towards resolving the final track over the next few days.

P.S....The 12z Euro ensemble mean had the best run of the season as far as snow totals for us in Central PA for the upcoming 15 days. The snow total at the end of day 15 showed about 8 inches around MDT.

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Euro OP continues to thumb its nose at any potential with the dual threats end of the this week and early next week. The one thing to really take away from that run was the down right cold outlook into January after the 17th. Pretty stout look at the current time. I'll be curious to see how the EPS looks once the data comes in. 

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Euro OP continues to thumb its nose at any potential with the dual threats end of the this week and early next week. The one thing to really take away from that run was the down right cold outlook into January after the 17th. Pretty stout look at the current time. I'll be curious to see how the EPS looks once the data comes in. 

We have the shots of cold air and we have the active pattern that we need... just cant get them to arrive in the correct order yet

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It has been rather interesting how much the Euro has been crushing the GFS with the MJO forecasting yet the GFS/GEFS continues to be used in CPC's MJO discussions... first image is GFS/GEFS forecast verification from Dec 26 forecast to Jan 9 and of course I lost the link for the Euro image... second is new forecast from Jan 10 for GFS/GEFS... third is new Euro forecast from Jan 10...

 

Currently in Phase 8 and other than the late loop back GFS/GEFS continues to produce it appears as if the transition to Phase 1/2 is continuing and in pretty solid agreement across almost all models which from what I know (or think I know :-) ) in tracking the MJO is a good (cold) thing for us for at least the near term...

 

operdyn_verif15D_full.gif

combphase_noCFSfull.gif

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

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Was at the cabin for the weekend and was looking from afar.  Sure looks like while we are transitioning...there is quite the normal chaos within the models and discussions thereof.  Looking forward to seeing how all of this evolves, but whether or not it ends up in our favor or not, I sure look forward to it.  Gut feeling is that the models are playing catchup, and will hopefully "find" the storm for the weekend. Hope ya'll get clipped tomorrow too.

 

 

Nut

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Any chance anything interesting happens tomorrow? Or are we talking windy flurries?

From the CTP AFD:

 

"THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL COME WITH PASSAGE OF SHARP COLD FRONT

TUES PM. STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RTS AND EVEN SOME MARGINAL

MDL CAPES INDICATED WITH FROPA...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF

GROUND WHITENING SNOW SQUALLS. THE BRIEFLY LOWERED

VSBYS...COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL FLASH FREEZE AS TEMPS FALL BLW

32F...COULD CREATE A TRAVEL HAZARD TUES AFTN/EVE. "

 

A white ground?  Sign me up.

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The environment looks good on the 18z NAM soundings for a few hours Tuesday afternoon to evening. Pretty unstable up to around 650 mb, though a bit dry below 850 mb. The GFS still has some pretty good lapse rates, but isn't as deep with the height of the moist unstable layer.

 

The 4km NAM shows some scattered areas of snow showers in the early afternoon and then a significant but narrow band of snow around 21 UTC here. I think that depiction makes sense given the narrow forcing and instability ahead of the cold front. Given that narrow forcing, there might be only 20 minutes of moderate/heavy snow but this will likely still be the most exciting event of the winter thus far.

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