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Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco


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Anyone that can't see the pattern is changing in big way over the next few weeks is blind and should find a different career or hobby.

 

Posted 14 October 2015 - 09:44 AM
 
I'm punting on Winter 2015-16.
 
I find it funny how MANY respected mets/hobbyists have been seeing the signs, (and have spelled out in various levels of detail), as to how and why a pattern change is looming...for almost a week now (see Tip/Iso/Mag/DonS/DJR/ORH/BobChill/Usedtobe/40/70). That's not cherrypicking...they are just some of the respected/talented folks that I follow..good or bad.  When they say it looks bad...it's usually bad...no two ways about it...you can't polish a turd...).
It takes no degree...just an understanding of the indices, and the implications thereof, to see it surely is a pattern change.  Whether or not it translates to snow in many of our backyards or not remains to be seen, but PNA going from - to +, AO going from + to -, and normal Nino climo alone is surely enough to warrant concern if you cancelled winter over 2 months ago (but in fairness for different reasons).  Not sure why anyone who knows what they're doing and has been around long enough would do such a thing.  H@ll I largely don't know what I'm doing comparatively speaking...but to speak in absolutes in this business....
I'm not bashing, but when someone is hanging onto something they put out and looking for reasons to be right...that's not fair to those who put alot of info/reasoning here on a frequent basis...right or wrong.  Just takes away from credibility.  Were all wrong once in a while....sorry but just sayin :)
 
I'm anxious to see the changes taking place in the next few days, and despite how it translates to our neck of the woods, I'm glad to be headed where we are.
 
Hope Santa was good to everyone...
 
Nut
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted 14 October 2015 - 09:44 AM
 
I'm punting on Winter 2015-16.
 
I find it funny how MANY respected mets/hobbyists have been seeing the signs, (and have spelled out in various levels of detail), as to how and why a pattern change is looming...for almost a week now (see Tip/Iso/Mag/DonS/DJR/ORH/BobChill/Usedtobe/40/70). That's not cherrypicking...they are just some of the respected/talented folks that I follow..good or bad.  When they say it looks bad...it's usually bad...no two ways about it...you can't polish a turd...).
It takes no degree...just an understanding of the indices, and the implications thereof, to see it surely is a pattern change.  Whether or not it translates to snow in many of our backyards or not remains to be seen, but PNA going from - to +, AO going from + to -, and normal Nino climo alone is surely enough to warrant concern if you cancelled winter over 2 months ago (but in fairness for different reasons).  Not sure why anyone who knows what they're doing and has been around long enough would do such a thing.  H@ll I largely don't know what I'm doing comparatively speaking...but to speak in absolutes in this business....
I'm not bashing, but when someone is hanging onto something they put out and looking for reasons to be right...that's not fair to those who put alot of info/reasoning here on a frequent basis...right or wrong.  Just takes away from credibility.  Were all wrong once in a while....sorry but just sayin :)
 
I'm anxious to see the changes taking place in the next few days, and despite how it translates to our neck of the woods, I'm glad to be headed where we are.
 
Hope Santa was good to everyone...
 
Nut
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

Bravo!!! and AMEN!!!!  My sentiments exactly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  

 

(Did I use enough exclamation points to make my point?)

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The PNA region seems to want to hold on very strongly, but it's axis crest is negatively oriented. This would disfavor any shortwaves that may be available to dig upstream. The lack of blocking downstream is the worst fly in the ointment and will be equally stubborn to change in the near term.

 

There is an indicator, via the GEFS in their Long Range, that some change could be in the offing in the downstream sector, whilst the PNA region still cooperates in the main.

 

Meanwhile the Atlantic Ridge is either Central based or a tick east (depending on model of course) But a much less influential southeast ridge (at H5) can only help.

 

Patience has been the watchword this winter, since back in November, actually. All that latent Nino heat has to be assimilated and distributed obviously. Only a displacement or split of the PV would become enough of an offset.

 

Winter may turn out short lived, but I'm betting that it will be felt for long enough to please most. After all, the components to a major storm (which could eliminate in one fell swoop, any negative departures previous to that) are available - it's a matter of timing thereafter.

 

R-ville UPDATE EDIT

 

Just updating a few things... The ridge axis via the GEFS is a bit too negatively tilted to allow for substantial digging on its lee edge - thus, at this point at least, the Op runs don't manifest the potential.

 

The indexes are aligning - still a matter of timing. There is also support for storminess centering on 1/10/16 time period, via the Bering Sea Rule and other lesser known indexes.

 

Watching for the Scandinavian Ridge to re-align for help in the NAO region and we could be game on.

 

Last but not least - the PA Farm Show Rule would be in effect for this time period as well - just to add a bit of fun mythology into the mix.

post-2399-0-19473300-1451243754_thumb.pn

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First of the year out of BGM for Scranton Metro. Not expecting much.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

243 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

NYZ022-024-PAZ038-043-044-047-280345-

/O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0014.151228T2300Z-151229T1500Z/

STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORNING...GIBSON...HORNELL...BATH...

CAMERON...NORTH CAMERON...WEST CAMERON...ELMIRA...COWLEY...

LEONA...SPRINGFIELD...TROY...MOSHERVILLE...BEAUMONT...

KASSON BROOK...NOXEN...RUGGLES...STULL...CENTER MORELAND...

ALDOVIN...SCRANTON...WEST SCRANTON...HUDSON...MINERS MILLS...

PARSONS...PLAINS...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...JEANESVILLE

243 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM

EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HAZARDOUS COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND

SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY

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Looks like I'm not the only one finding interest in this time pd for our part of the world.

 

Just looked at the range of models in the period between the 5th and 6th of January. The Typhoon Rule states that the pattern over East Asia has a direct correlation with the Eastern CONUS in 6-10 days. So, I thought to myself...with my January 11th severe weather event call I had better take a gander out there to see what's up. [ 49 more words. ]

http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1608

 

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post-815-0-89047100-1451340467_thumb.pngLow level cold quite noticeable across Pennsylvania at this hour as CAD signature and evaporational cooling continues. It will likely be a messy night across northern areas, particularly in the Alleghany Plateau. Elsewhere, to the southeast, most areas will quickly turn over to plain rain as warm air aloft floods in.

 

While one of the first winter events for the region, in the scheme of things this will be a very low-impact event for most areas.

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Precip has been rather sparse with the bulk of the precip shield lifting up to our west so far, and not too much really developing in our neck of the woods. We'll eventually see the part of the main precip shield that precedes the frontal passage.. but that would also come with the significant southerly flow aloft, so any sleet in the central counties will probably be quite brief. Sleet will probably hang on longer in the north central.. but freezing rain will probably be the bigger deal. 

 

This really could've been quite an ice storm setup with the very strong high well positioned to our north but lack of antecedent cold and the bulk of the precip shield lifting west makes it more of a nuisance and localized type event. Dewpoints are still in the 20s in the central stations like JST/AOO/UNV/IPT so I would expect temps to fall to freezing or somewhat below at the onset of more steady precip, but icing is probably going to be relegated to elevated roadways/walkways/etc as well as trees. Not to mention more widespread areas of icing in general are probably going to be on the eastern side of the Allegheny front and the northern and central ridge tops, where higher elevations closer to the 925mb level will be colder... as 925 temps are running colder than surface temps currently per mesoanalysis. It's one of those events where you could be raining at 32 for awhile and not really have any ice while up on the one of the ridges it's 30-31 and it's just enough to see accrual on trees... and that comes down to having no preceding cold in place and a warm, unfrozen ground.

 

Mesoanalysis 925mb temps:

post-1507-0-13867000-1451350927_thumb.pn

 

Mesoanalysis Surface temps:

post-1507-0-94097600-1451350957_thumb.pn

 

Sfc Wet Bulb:

post-1507-0-01286000-1451350830_thumb.pn

 

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Pretty much ended up all rain here this eve, just not enough cold at the surface to do anything. Did have a check at a couple of the local ridges and didn't note any icing. 

 

I do know one thing, I cannot wait for Thursday to get here and for this god awful pattern to be out of here.. even if the coming normal chilly weather comes with a fairly dry pattern for now.  

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