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Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco


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Models are in relatively good agreement attm with regards to the early week storm save for the finer details. They all (GFS/CMC/Euro) are pointed toward a potential wintry mix event. GFS is cold enough for a front end snow bomb, while Euro and Canadian are more of a straight sleet and freezing rain event. They all have the strong high pretty well positioned, and at 1040+ on the progs the cold won't be easy to budge at all even with the low tracking west. 

 

12z GFS snowmap, some of this is probably sleet..but it's still the coldest of the bunch and would support a front end snowfall

post-1507-0-75326800-1450987793_thumb.pn

 

CMC (@101hr... a lot of sleet over the course of the event)

post-1507-0-32648000-1450987808_thumb.pn

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I'd give body parts to see something close to that happen....just gotta figure out which ones are worth bartering with....

 

Merry Christmas all and here's to a few late presents from Santa  :santa:

 

Nut

Gall bladder will do :) but if you really want it to happen you might want to go kidney.

 

Merry Christmas to everyone on here :santa:

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The PNA region seems to want to hold on very strongly, but it's axis crest is negatively oriented. This would disfavor any shortwaves that may be available to dig upstream. The lack of blocking downstream is the worst fly in the ointment and will be equally stubborn to change in the near term.

 

There is an indicator, via the GEFS in their Long Range, that some change could be in the offing in the downstream sector, whilst the PNA region still cooperates in the main.

 

Meanwhile the Atlantic Ridge is either Central based or a tick east (depending on model of course) But a much less influential southeast ridge (at H5) can only help.

 

Patience has been the watchword this winter, since back in November, actually. All that latent Nino heat has to be assimilated and distributed obviously. Only a displacement or split of the PV would become enough of an offset.

 

Winter may turn out short lived, but I'm betting that it will be felt for long enough to please most. After all, the components to a major storm (which could eliminate in one fell swoop, any negative departures previous to that) are available - it's a matter of timing thereafter.

 

 

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haha not sure why i thought he said organ instead of body part (but yeah toe would be better)

LOL...The heat of late has me wheary....parts/organs...matters not at this juncture...

 

Gall/appendix gone, so i guess kidneys/liver (while pickled a bit from last night) are negotiable.

 

they say pig toe/earlobe are gonners by evolution anyway, so i'm guessing they might not be enough to get the deal done.

 

Headed to the fam soon.  I hope the 12z's don't put coal in my stocking...

 

Have fun all.

 

Nut

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LOL...The heat of late has me wheary....parts/organs...matters not at this juncture...

Gall/appendix gone, so i guess kidneys/liver (while pickled a bit from last night) are negotiable.

they say pig toe/earlobe are gonners by evolution anyway, so i'm guessing they might not be enough to get the deal done.

Headed to the fam soon. I hope the 12z's don't put coal in my stocking...

Have fun all.

Nut

Rooting for you bud, farm show shouldn't hurt!

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Hope I'm not too late. Merry Christmas to everyone in here!!! At work currently going on the half way point of my 16 hour shift. Heading home to see family in the AM. Looks like some winter fun finally in the cards next week!!

 

Edit: GFS and Euro playing Grinch. Will see if the models are underestimating the CAD potential.

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