Eskimo Joe Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Happy Torchvember! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Nice few days of weather this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Happy Torchvember! No complaints from me...until it finally does get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Nothing wrong with warmer weather this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Went up to King's Gap on this pretty Sunday to get the last gasp of color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 A Warm November is fine with me and can lead to better times for winter weather down the road. Below normal temps in November don't produce snow very often here. Let the pattern flip at the end of the month so we can start to score snow in December! In the meantime, we can save a little on heating costs over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 CFS is game,set, match for the eastern 1/3 of the US this winter. Wake me up when it's September 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Kinda like the warm, can't lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Awesome weather today, getting into the mid 70sF here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 A Warm November is fine with me and can lead to better times for winter weather down the road. Below normal temps in November don't produce snow very often here. Let the pattern flip at the end of the month so we can start to score snow in December! In the meantime, we can save a little on heating costs over the next few weeks. Totally agree. Cold in November rarely works out for snow, then you get a pattern flip to warm in December that's lasts into January. Love a warm November so you can enjoy extended early fall temps. Golfing is cheap in November! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 CTP posted this interesting graphic to FB yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 cfs has a great track record, look at last year...lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 CTP posted this interesting graphic to FB yesterday. Nice graphic. Shows you that a La Niña pattern basically is the worst to have for snow lovers in Susquehanna Valley. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Nice graphic. Shows you that a La Niña pattern basically is the worst to have for snow lovers in Susquehanna Valley. Sent from my iPhone It also can illustrate that neutral or weak El Nino's are no slam dunk either given the strong clustering of somewhat below average winters right in that weak El Nino range. Also mixed results with the two strongest ninos on there.. which in all likelihood are the 82-83 and 97-98 ninos. The 82-83 winter was a bit above average for Harrisburg (aided by the Feb '83 blizzard) while 97-98 was a just about a no show. Of course the 97-98 Nino managed to produce in interior PA with UNV for example recording a slightly above average winter snow wise. The pattern in the storm sense that winter was one that was traditionally favorable for C-PA snows but there was so much warmth in the pattern that it made the events that managed to be snow very marginal. I specifically remember that winter for getting some decent snowstorms but the snow would completely melt within a few days. Speaking of 97-98, while this Nino has been the strongest one since then, and likely at least top 3 or 4 one overall, there's some pretty big differences outside of the ENSO regions. Saw this comparison today. Much more warmth along both seaboards this year, and the Atlantic is completely flipped temp wise vs this time in 1997. At any rate, it's just about a given that we will be likely dealing with a strong to at least strongly moderate El Nino through the course of the winter... which should help deliver split flow and a robust southern stream with more moisture loaded systems and coastals than we've really seen the last couple winters. That's something I would have a good amount of confidence in saying. However, other factors are going to play key roles in what we see around these parts this winter. One thing that jumps out to me with SST anomalies is just the overall amount of warm anomalies in both the oceans currently with sizable + departures all the way up the west coast to Alaska as well as in the western Atlantic along the Eastern Seaboard. The warm water up the west coast (outside of the nino regions) is a continuation of what we have seen the previous two winters.. which could imply more of a potential western ridging setup, which would allow cold canadian air to flow into the central and eastern US. The snow weenie in me can see the potential in that setup with the western ridging and a strong undercutting subtropical jet. On the Atlantic side, I have to wonder about those positive departures along the Eastern seaboard if they persist. Certainly could be a good thing for the interior northeast in a coastal storm scenario with the warm water adding some extra fuel but that warm water could also hurt the I-95 corridor and coastal plain, especially early in the season (December into Jan) with any coastal that tracks close to the coast. Overall I see a high risk, high reward type scenario for this winter. I think one of the biggest keys will be if we see any semblance of the overall pattern we had last winter in the eastern Pac/west coast. I consider that more important for us than if we can get the more traditional -NAO blocking going.. as I'm not really keen on it being a significant influence once again. And if we had to rely on that in the face of an unfavorable Pac setup.. it better be one heck of a block because I think we could get overrun with a heat wave in a hurry in the wrong setup this year. Very hard to determine (as it always is) what will ultimately happen but as the last couple winters has taught us, I wouldn't get too complacent with traditional assumptions (i.e it's a strong El Nino so we're doomed or +NAO = eternal torch, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Great post MAG! Everything I have read so far has said that the second half of met. winter into March should be the coldest part of winter with the most storms. I agree with your high risk, high reward comment. I think it will help us to be back in the interior this year in CTP territory. The last 2 years have produced around 40 inches of snow per year at MDT, but it has mostly been a few inches per event. This year I think we have a much better chance for a big storm pattern with this set up, especially as we get into late January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Honestly if we get 15" for the year but it comes in one storm I'm happier than 10 1" slop events and two 2.5" events. I'm actually worried about my family in east Texas. Severe ice storms are seemingly very likely there this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 3 days in a row of cycling after work in shorts and a tee shirt. No heat or A/C needed for the homestead. This...is pretty much perfect weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Honestly if we get 15" for the year but it comes in one storm I'm happier than 10 1" slop events and two 2.5" events. I'm actually worried about my family in east Texas. Severe ice storms are seemingly very likely there this winter. Me too. I'd honestly take a winter of warmth (and even rain) if I knew we had one foot-plus storm...especially if it was well more than a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 I would rather have a winter like 1996 where we had 2 big storms in 1 week in January, but also had a good winter beyond that with over 70 in. at MDT. I would also take a winter like 2003, where we had good events in December to get us started, and then had the great President's Day storm and again had a winter that I think ended near 60 in. at MDT. I want a few big storms, but also have a fair number of smaller events. This year, with the type of El Niño that we are facing, the threat of bigger events should be on the table, especially the second half of winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Honestly if we get 15" for the year but it comes in one storm I'm happier than 10 1" slop events and two 2.5" events. This....100% this! I can't stand all the one inch events. Most of that has to do with the salt mess. It doesn't matter if it's one inch or ten inches, PennDot will bring out the trucks and salt the **** out of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 This early June weather needs to end!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 This early June weather needs to end! Hit 80 here buddy. It was warmer this afternoon than it was at the beach on Labor Day weekend. I read in the Philly thread that Paul Knight is going cold and wintry to end the month. He's usually spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I sweated the past two days. Screw this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I would also take a winter like 2003, where we had good events in December to get us started, and then had the great President's Day storm and again had a winter that I think ended near 60 in. at MDT. That was a snow weenie's best Christmas ever, in 2002. Foot of snow on Christmas Day is hard to top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Hit 80 here buddy. It was warmer this afternoon than it was at the beach on Labor Day weekend. I read in the Philly thread that Paul Knight is going cold and wintry to end the month. He's usually spot on. I hope he is right. I would be happy just to have normal temps right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Paul Knight was on a special Weather World show this past Tuesday....he has retired from Penn State...he actually predicted not as harsh of cold as last year but much snowier....especially in the eastern half of PA. He did not mention the end of this month so I don't know where the philly thread got that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Well that was an awesome week of weather. No sense in below normal temps now...there is nothing redeeming about a 46/31 day with a NW breeze and thick stratocu, sorry. Looking seasonable this weekend, then a bit above normal again next week. Definitely watching the week around Thanksgiving for the chance at some wintry appeal. Hard to get it before then most years anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I'm fine with some warmth in November but it had better be cooler by Thanksgiving. I don't know if it's a mental thing or how we vision the winter holidays in terms of environment or just memory as a child but something about it being sunny and 60 on Thanksgiving doesn't feel right and never has. Sunshine is fine, but I'd prefer the temperatures be a little cooler. It doesn't have to be cold like it was last year, nor does it have to snow the day before as it did last year. Actually, let me correct myself; it doesn't have to overproduce in snow in some places and totally bust in other places like it did last year. But I would like it to be brisk. "But of course that is just my opinion. I could be wrong." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Joe Bastardi on Weatherbell.com's free weekly "Saturday Summary" video today had a good pattern discussion. He expects nothing for the east through around the 20th or so of this month. Then, the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas, he expects the pattern to be more "wild than mild", meaning more storms in the East. He said the jet stream will start to cut underneath us, while the ridge starts to back more towards western half of Canada. The video is a good watch, it starts with hurricane discussion, but the second half of it is about the up coming pattern, which I think is Bastardi's best skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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