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November 2015 nowcast and short term obs/discussion


Ian

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Interesting little nugget or whatever you want to call it.  Since I've started working in Maryland, I've notice that during events that have marginal boundary layer temperatures WITH either: 

 

1.) Little or no wind with a northward component -AND/OR-

2.) Warm temperatures preceding the event

 

the Frederick Valley will warm quick than expected, which can complicate forecast precipitation type during changeover events.

 

Check out the GFS (MAV) MOS guidance for Frederick Airport (FDK) for today.  It's 16z at the time of this post, and MAV guidance has FDK to be a 41.

 

post-1389-0-85980300-1448899833_thumb.jp

 

But taking a look at the latest observation, FDK is sitting at 43, even warmer than DCA.  Now I know it's only 2 degrees and I'm in no way implying anyone at LWX, or any other forecaster is wrong, etc.  Just an interesting local tidbit.

 

post-1389-0-02784100-1448899946_thumb.jp

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Most places are running below guidance so far today.. tho NAM MOS may end up fairly close. A tough one given how atrocious NAM MOS has been lately.. tho I suppose in situ CAD should be something it's good at. 

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40 IMBY

Warmer air seems to be starting to return at 850 but near low point still. Glad to take the forecast today and bust on temps. :P Tho I did say it would be colder than yesterday at least... 

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Interesting little nugget or whatever you want to call it.  Since I've started working in Maryland, I've notice that during events that have marginal boundary layer temperatures WITH either: 

 

1.) Little or no wind with a northward component -AND/OR-

2.) Warm temperatures preceding the event

 

the Frederick Valley will warm quick than expected, which can complicate forecast precipitation type during changeover events.

 

Check out the GFS (MAV) MOS guidance for Frederick Airport (FDK) for today.  It's 16z at the time of this post, and MAV guidance has FDK to be a 41.

 

attachicon.gifFDKbust.JPG

 

But taking a look at the latest observation, FDK is sitting at 43, even warmer than DCA.  Now I know it's only 2 degrees and I'm in no way implying anyone at LWX, or any other forecaster is wrong, etc.  Just an interesting local tidbit.

 

attachicon.gifFDKvsDCA.JPG

 

Your MOS image says FME, not FDK. 

 

That said, I vaguely recall FDK as perhaps one of those AWOS sites that runs a tad warm overall.  It was 85.8 in August when Dulles was 85.3...

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Chilly with occasional raindrops here, we really are more or less on target with temperatures from 00z models 18 hour guidance, most had the DC/Baltimore metro in the 40-42 degree range including Euro, GGEM, and 4k NAM, with suprisingly GFS being the warmest guidance, as well as the early RAP/HRRR runs .It sure is great to have Wxbell lol.12z Euro is mostly 1.0"-1.5" of rain thru Wednesday Night for the LWX area.

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Chilly with occasional raindrops here, we really are more or less on target with temperatures from 00z models 18 hour guidance, most had the DC/Baltimore metro in the 40-42 degree range including Euro, GGEM, and 4k NAM, with suprisingly GFS being the warmest guidance. It sure is great to have Wxbell lol.12z Euro is mostly 1.0"-1.5" of rain thru Wednesday Night for the LWX area.

GFS has trouble with CAD so actually, not that surprising...

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Temp has held here between 36.5 (high) and 33.5 (low). I am probably in the minority but I like cold dreary days like this. I have been outside every opportunity I found today and this evening. Driving anywhere stinks though.

Agree. Walked 5 miles today. Went to cemetery and cleaned up and changed flowers over to a Christmas/winter theme. Then I walked back end of property and selected/marked a couple trees to cut later this week.

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11/7:       .03"

11/9:       .66"

11/10:     .27"

11/12:     .12"

11/18:     .02"

11/19:     .54"

11/28:     .06"

11/29:     .26"

11/30:     .12"

 

Monthly total:    2.08"

 

Seasonal total:  9.14"

 

Since June 1:    16.36"

 

Managed to pull out a below normal November despite a record El-Nino.

 

9 days with a high of 66F+, and only 3 days with highs in the 40s.  Don't even feel like calculating the anomaly.  It was probably like a +20F month or something.  Pretty darn miserable

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