Ian Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 Another day of this and I might gut myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 39 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Interesting little nugget or whatever you want to call it. Since I've started working in Maryland, I've notice that during events that have marginal boundary layer temperatures WITH either: 1.) Little or no wind with a northward component -AND/OR- 2.) Warm temperatures preceding the event the Frederick Valley will warm quick than expected, which can complicate forecast precipitation type during changeover events. Check out the GFS (MAV) MOS guidance for Frederick Airport (FDK) for today. It's 16z at the time of this post, and MAV guidance has FDK to be a 41. But taking a look at the latest observation, FDK is sitting at 43, even warmer than DCA. Now I know it's only 2 degrees and I'm in no way implying anyone at LWX, or any other forecaster is wrong, etc. Just an interesting local tidbit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Damn!!!!! Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 Most places are running below guidance so far today.. tho NAM MOS may end up fairly close. A tough one given how atrocious NAM MOS has been lately.. tho I suppose in situ CAD should be something it's good at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Sweet cold day! But, Cold Rain will be a common term this year and I get to repeat it again today! 36 and feels like 29! I am missing SNOW! Had to look at pictures to see it! 11/26/2014 I had the attached shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 Dulles temp down to 37 at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Dulles temp down to 37 at noon. 40 IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 I dropped to 35.. DP of 34 - almost 100% saturated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 40 IMBY Warmer air seems to be starting to return at 850 but near low point still. Glad to take the forecast today and bust on temps. Tho I did say it would be colder than yesterday at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Got down to 38.2 at 10am, but have rebounded slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 I dropped to 35.. DP of 34 - almost 100% saturated! TWC interactive radar shows mixing not too far from you, though not saying it's accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 I had some frozen mangled junk mixed with rain on my windshield while driving into work this morning. But not enough to start this years signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Looks like Camp David / Raven Rock might be mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Interesting little nugget or whatever you want to call it. Since I've started working in Maryland, I've notice that during events that have marginal boundary layer temperatures WITH either: 1.) Little or no wind with a northward component -AND/OR- 2.) Warm temperatures preceding the event the Frederick Valley will warm quick than expected, which can complicate forecast precipitation type during changeover events. Check out the GFS (MAV) MOS guidance for Frederick Airport (FDK) for today. It's 16z at the time of this post, and MAV guidance has FDK to be a 41. FDKbust.JPG But taking a look at the latest observation, FDK is sitting at 43, even warmer than DCA. Now I know it's only 2 degrees and I'm in no way implying anyone at LWX, or any other forecaster is wrong, etc. Just an interesting local tidbit. FDKvsDCA.JPG Your MOS image says FME, not FDK. That said, I vaguely recall FDK as perhaps one of those AWOS sites that runs a tad warm overall. It was 85.8 in August when Dulles was 85.3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 37.9 at my house, low for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 I had some frozen mangled junk mixed with rain on my windshield while driving into work this morning. But not enough to start this years signature. A trace should be illegal to document. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Chilly with occasional raindrops here, we really are more or less on target with temperatures from 00z models 18 hour guidance, most had the DC/Baltimore metro in the 40-42 degree range including Euro, GGEM, and 4k NAM, with suprisingly GFS being the warmest guidance, as well as the early RAP/HRRR runs .It sure is great to have Wxbell lol.12z Euro is mostly 1.0"-1.5" of rain thru Wednesday Night for the LWX area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Chilly with occasional raindrops here, we really are more or less on target with temperatures from 00z models 18 hour guidance, most had the DC/Baltimore metro in the 40-42 degree range including Euro, GGEM, and 4k NAM, with suprisingly GFS being the warmest guidance. It sure is great to have Wxbell lol.12z Euro is mostly 1.0"-1.5" of rain thru Wednesday Night for the LWX area. GFS has trouble with CAD so actually, not that surprising... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 Which models tend to do best? Hi res models should in theory. Tho looks like all forecasts were a bit too warm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Your MOS image says FME, not FDK. That said, I vaguely recall FDK as perhaps one of those AWOS sites that runs a tad warm overall. It was 85.8 in August when Dulles was 85.3... Bah. My brain is mush these days, need to quit the Internet for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 it's currently 35 degrees here, down from the day's high of 38. it's a miserable day. Agreed. It is terrible outside right now. 36 and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Beautiful late fall day. I'm just happy it feels like it's supposed to this time of year. I'm sick of sunny and 60. I'm good on that until April. Light rain and 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 High of 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 High here was 42 at midnight. Low 37 this afternoon. Currently 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Temp has held here between 36.5 (high) and 33.5 (low). I am probably in the minority but I like cold dreary days like this. I have been outside every opportunity I found today and this evening. Driving anywhere stinks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Temp has held here between 36.5 (high) and 33.5 (low). I am probably in the minority but I like cold dreary days like this. I have been outside every opportunity I found today and this evening. Driving anywhere stinks though. Agree. Walked 5 miles today. Went to cemetery and cleaned up and changed flowers over to a Christmas/winter theme. Then I walked back end of property and selected/marked a couple trees to cut later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 0.62" rain over the last 3 days of November at my house... ended November with 2.48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 11/7: .03" 11/9: .66" 11/10: .27" 11/12: .12" 11/18: .02" 11/19: .54" 11/28: .06" 11/29: .26" 11/30: .12" Monthly total: 2.08" Seasonal total: 9.14" Since June 1: 16.36" Managed to pull out a below normal November despite a record El-Nino. 9 days with a high of 66F+, and only 3 days with highs in the 40s. Don't even feel like calculating the anomaly. It was probably like a +20F month or something. Pretty darn miserable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 November stats IMBY High 78 Low 26 Precip 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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