Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 For fun, a look ahead for SNE from W/E November 14th up until Jan 2 2016. Using some various methods I put together a couple of years ago to try and picture how the atmosphere will evolve. A very generalized and broad look at the rest of the year. W/E 11/14 The week should feature a way above normal period mainly dry with some minor frontal rains. + 5 to +7 for the period W/E 11/21 The story of this week will be an intense Great Lakes low which will sweep mild and wetter conditions up the coast followed by a very strong frontal passage leading to a briefly colder couple of days +4 to + 6 for the period. gales possible W/E 11/28 Starting out chilly and stormy transitioning to a mild turkey day, should be pretty dry but with strong radiational cooling +1 to +2 W/E 12/5 A major pattern change evolves with a possible major East Coast storm similar to Dec 2003 except a tad warmer which may cause coastal rains -2 to -3 W/E 12/12 The start of the week could feature a 95 corridor slow moving cold snowstorm which could be stalled and major then a quick transition to another mild period +1, 0 W/E 12/19 A complete relaxation of the pattern with warmer and drier than normal conditions with windy days + 2 + 3 W/E 12/26 A warm week with a large wet storm which could cut or hug the coast, possible Grinch type changing to snow as an Arctic boundary intrudes +2 to +3 W/E 1/2 cold to a warmer week with tranquil conditions with another arctic blast on the doorstep + 2 to +3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Torch November, slightly less torch December. Probably the way I would lean right now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Nice work, looking forward to verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Nice Ginxy, good luck. Hopefully those early December snowstorms work out. Going to be a warm start to MET winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 Thanks guys, yea looks pretty AN, hopefully we can sneak in a couple of decent storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Good stuff Ginx. You've had the hot hand since 02/09/13. Let's Go Mets ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 Good stuff Ginx. You've had the hot hand since 02/09/13. Let's Go Mets !thanks LGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 I endorse this message ('cept the Mets part) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Good work Steve. That looks like as good a stab as any at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 Good work Steve. That looks like as good a stab as any at this point. thanks timing could be a bit off but I think generally decent stab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 As good a stab as any. Regarding W/E 12/12.....make it so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 I agree ... nice, "stab in ribs" of the winter anxious. Altho, I might even suggest turning the blade in Schadenfreude because the teleconnectors and now the machine guidance based upon operational intervals are all flagging about double the +5 to +7 anomalies we'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Pretty much aligned with my winter outlook as well. Pretty much written off the first half with a stronger second half as the Nino calms down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 For fun, a look ahead for SNE from W/E November 14th up until Jan 2 2016. Using some various methods I put together a couple of years ago to try and picture how the atmosphere will evolve. A very generalized and broad look at the rest of the year. W/E 11/14 The week should feature a way above normal period mainly dry with some minor frontal rains. + 5 to +7 for the period Wait, an additional torch after this coming week? I thought it was supposed to cool down a bit. Dang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 Wait, an additional torch after this coming week? I thought it was supposed to cool down a bit. Dang! some cool days but warms up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Looks good Steve. You've done well with these in the past few years. The Christmas torch cutter seems to be a tradition lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Ginx, my only question would be if you could further elaborate on some of the keys and tools you use to create your outlook? This isn't me questioning your abilities but rather curious to learn how you put it all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Ginx, my only question would be if you could further elaborate on some of the keys and tools you use to create your outlook? This isn't me questioning your abilities but rather curious to learn how you put it all together.nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Lollets just say I get enough ridicule lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 lets just say I get enough ridicule lolHaha ok KatoDog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Scrolls and ancient mud samples from salt water marshes near Westerly RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Scrolls and ancient mud samples from salt water marshes near Westerly RI. Lunar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Lunar That's definitely part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 That's definitely part of it.keep trying definitely not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Haha ok KatoDogyea thats it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Scrolls and ancient mud samples from salt water marshes near Westerly RI.no but thats probably more accurate than the MJO forcing Mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 keep trying definitely not Really? You don't include the full moons in your storm time frames? Seems like you are always pointing that out, surprised you don't use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Really? You don't include the full moons in your storm time frames? Seems like you are always pointing that out, surprised you don't use it.what I point out is if a storm occurs during a full moon they tend to be more intense. The moon doesn't cause storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Must be the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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