Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,603
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Arabian Sea Cyclone Chapala


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 111
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I will coin the term 'raisin effect' to describe what's currently going up with Chapala. As the low level inflow is restricted and replaced by very dry continental air, the cyclone is drying up and the CDO is shrinking. Shear still looks pretty low, but the disruption of the positive feedback is weakening Chapala and the eye is shrinking and filling up. Winds might have a harder time to mix down, but I still think it will pack a punch at landfall, borderline cat 1/cat 2.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I will coin the term 'raisin effect' to describe what's currently going up with Chapala. As the low level inflow is restricted and replaced by very dry continental air, the cyclone is drying up and the CDO is shrinking. Shear still looks pretty low, but the disruption of the positive feedback is weakening Chapala and the eye is shrinking and filling up. Winds might have a harder time to mix down, but I still think it will pack a punch at landfall, borderline cat 1/cat 2.

 

In any case, the major threat with Chapala is going to be with the heavy rain and flooding, which is pretty much a given at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In any case, the major threat with Chapala is going to be with the heavy rain and flooding, which is pretty much a given at this point.

No doubt....8-10" along the track, plus some hot spots of over a foot, in places that get a 1/4 of that in a year will make for a very dangerous situation. Also, it will only take a small deviation to the NW of the remnant's current forecasted track to get to the most populous part of Yemen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Purportedly from Chapala, though it says Oman, which it cant be. Not sure if the phrase spoken in the video is arab, but if it is, then that would add credibility of it being Chapala, as I don't think many arab speaking countries get this kind of weather. It's a very recent video, and I haven't seen it elsewhere, and it's at night, and it's currently night time at Yemen. It could also be a severe weather event, taking into account that lightning is not that common in TCs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_F-tX6ueKcQ

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, a couple of Twitter accounts that /seem/ to be from al-Mukalla.

 

https://twitter.com/Alamoudi211/with_replies

 

https://twitter.com/Ahmed_basharahi

 

https://twitter.com/iishiema

 

 

 

Al-Qaeda dominates the city of Mukalla and there are no trained rescue teams .

The wind died down, but flooding and mudslides may still be a major issue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/004316502760195911/epdf

This is the last actual hurricane that came down the Gulf of Aden that I could find -- 1885.

Nice find!!! Pretty cool that the 1885 storm was basically destroyed by the same dry air issues. Despite having some of the warmest watet temps in the world being surrounded by desert on 3 sides is just too much

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A key difference between this storm and earlier storms is the time of year - after the monsoon, and not before. That does change things a little compared to May. I don't think there's been a storm like this in the second peak of the IO season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It briefly made landfall near Al Mukalla but has re-entered the sea again.

io0415.gif

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 47.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 736 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A MID TO LOW-LEVEL 7NM EYE FEATURE THAT IS VISIBLE IN THE MSI ANIMATED LOOP. A 030303Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THAT TC 04A WAS BRIEFLY OVER LAND NORTH OF THE MIJDAHAH REGION, HOWEVER SINCE THEN HAS TRACKED BACK INTO THE GULF OF ADEN. DUE TO THE BRIEF LAND INTERACTION AND SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF CONVECTION, THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS. GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS PERSISTS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DECAY SLOWLY. TC CHAPALA IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF OMAN. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND TURNING POLEWARD BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE SHABWAH REGION AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL DECAY RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THROUGH TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//

Link to comment
Share on other sites

More here:

 

 

If that's downtown, there's got to be a lot more damage in outskirts and villages.  I can't imagine mud/stone huts do well in this sort of situation.  And I also can't imagine that Yemeni drivers know what to do when they reach flowing water.  We'll hear more about this in however many days it takes any kind of media to make it there.  What do you do when there's no local government and no UN to do a casualty count, coordinate aid, etc?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IMERG image of Chapala's rainfall, showing 500 mm totals over Socotra.

 

chapala_rain_28_october-3_november_2015.

The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM or IMERG is used to make estimates of precipitation from a combination of passive microwave sensors, including the GMI microwave sensor on board the GPM satellite, and geostationary IR (infrared) data. This image shows IMERG rainfall estimates for the period 18:00 UTC 28 October to 08:30 UTC 3 November 2015 for Yemen, the Gulf of Aden and the surrounding region in association with Cyclone Chapala. IMERG shows rainfall amounts on the order of 5 to 15 inches (shown in yellow and dark red, respectively) over south central Yemen and along the coast to the right of where Chapala made landfall as indicated by the storm track (shown in white) while significant areas of eastern Yemen appear to have received at least 3 inches of rain (shown in green). The highest total over Yemen was 398 mm (~16 inches). Most of these totals are the equivalent of a year's worth or precipitation or more. So far at least 3 persons are reported to have died and 200 injured as a result of the storm on the island of Socotra located about 150 miles east of the Horn of Africa. IMERG rainfall totals for Socotra are between 12 (dark red) and 20 (shown in purple) inches of rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...