ncforecaster89 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Radar from Salalah, Oman (due north of the centre around now) shows a rain band extending to around 100 NM from the coast a couple of hours ago. http://www.met.gov.om/opencms/export/sites/default/dgman/en/weather-chart/map-data/ salalah radar.JPG Unfortunately the Yemen met service website is as useful as a chocolate teapot and does not have any current observations, though does have a warning out for Socotra. Thanks for the link! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Not sure if this is real or fake but it purports to be from the island of Socotra. http://www.emirates247.com/news/emirates/cyclone-chapala-live-oman-s-coastal-areas-evacuated-2015-11-01-1.608666 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I can see Chapala going annular, the environment may somewhat favor it. No indications so far, just mentioning the somewhat enhanced potential of such development. ... There are some indications now...Looks like JTWC's forecast is too low...probability of a major in Yemen is real high now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Big eye has popped out and it has taken a jog to the southwest. It's winning the battle with dry air for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I was just going to post that Socotra should be getting hit pretty hard right now. That video above is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I was just going to post that Socotra should be getting hit pretty hard right now. That video above is pretty impressive. unfortunately main part of Socotran population seems to be on North coast. however, they have some of the strongest monsoon winds on earth so there likely isn't much flimsy construction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Shear is now 5kt or less and there's more environmental moisture than there normally is (desert front to the north is helping with this). Chapala also has a huge moisture envelope now, so dry air intrusion will likely have to wait until the cyclone is much closer to landfall. I can't stress how unusual this is. This probably why JTWC has been adamant about weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I don't think that video is from Socotra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I don't think that video is from Socotra. Video fake, pic perhaps real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Shear is now 5kt or less and there's more environmental moisture than there normally is (desert front to the north is helping with this). Chapala also has a huge moisture envelope now, so dry air intrusion will likely have to wait until the cyclone is much closer to landfall. I can't stress how unusual this is. This probably why JTWC has been adamant about weakening. GFS shifted south, it may hug the Gulf of Aiden for an extra day and make landfall near AIden. Edit: Nevermind GFS is further south but still way northeast of AIden and not near any populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 This news website (who posted the video on YouTube) seems to believe the reality of the video shown in post #62: http://www.emirates247.com/news/emirates/cyclone-chapala-socotra-island-hit-1-dead-and-9-injured-video-2015-11-01-1.608666 Some good additional information as well. Here is a second video from Socotra with some impressive lightning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I have my doubts about the veracity of the Lightning segments but other I suspect the other segments may well be real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Video fake, pic perhaps real The photo appears to be real. A Yemeni journalist has been covering the event and reports wind damage and flooding. Apparently there has also been a fuel shortage on the island, contributing with issues in the evacuation and recovery efforts. http://www.startribune.com/yemen-s-socotra-island-hit-by-rare-cyclone/339159951/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Hail (with video) in Salalah, Oman: http://www.timesofoman.com/article/70808/Video/Oman-weather:-Hailstorm-in-Salalah-as-cyclone-Chapala-approaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I have my doubts about the veracity of the Lightning segments but other I suspect the other segments may well be real. This real-time map shows there has been lightning occurring. Two of the blue dots show up at Socotra. http://wwlln.net/WWLLN_movies/Movie_of_Lightning_in_EurAfrica_BIG.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 JTWC continues to harp on wind shear and dry air, but it just hasn't happened. I'm really uncertain where the figure of 10-15 knots of shear and the southerly vector is coming from, but CIMSS shows less than 5kt at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 The Tc takes a noticeable jog south and intensifies as it approaches Socotra. I dont know see why the video shown above could not be real. They are getting hit pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Does anyone have a decent link for updated satellite imagery of Chapala? I'm having trouble finding anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Does anyone have a decent link for updated satellite imagery of Chapala? I'm having trouble finding anything. http://rammb.cira.co...ne/tropical.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Fascinating and unique situation going on. Water vapor showing that really nice outflow out ahead of Chapala. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 http://rammb.cira.co...ne/tropical.asp Thanks! Chapala still seems to be tracking west of the forecasted path. Beautiful storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 The Tc takes a noticeable jog south and intensifies as it approaches Socotra. I dont know see why the video shown above could not be real. They are getting hit pretty hard. socotra is one of the most unique places on earth in terms of geology, biology.I have doubts about the high wind video because it literally could be anywhere tropical. I doubt the lightning video because there seems to be little wind and the clouds seem to be barely moving. I think the beach pics are real and the flooding vid may well be real as the architecture looks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Apparently this is in Socotra. Bad news. https://twitter.com/adennetwork/status/660972779500605441 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 So possible years worth of average rain in places in a couple days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Looks that way So possible years worth of average rain in places in a couple days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 So possible years worth of average rain in places in a couple days? This may not end well for Al Mukalla depending on weather or not that crumbling hill is as steep as it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 So possible years worth of average rain in places in a couple days? For the western highlands maybe. San'aa, the capital in the west, gets about 11". The southern and eastern coastal areas get far less, often less than 2". Only in the higher terrain of the central and eastern regions do they get 3-5"/yr. So, for these coastal cities of Al Mukalla and whatnot, we could easily be talking 5+ years of rain. There's a reason there's little to no vegetation. Hell, at least Socotra gets a nice even 10-12" and has some vegetation. These areas have little to none. It's going to be a catastrophe when those soils start getting hit with 1-2"/hr rainfall rates. After months of baking in the sun, that soil literally turns into a hydrophobic chalk-like dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Looks to me that the first feeder bands should be impacting the coasts now in the landfall area. We're still 24 hours from landfall. Ugh. I'm sure to these folks, who have no real experience with a hurricane, it's going to seem like the world is ending. The road system isn't built to even handle more than the rare thundershower washing down a wadi, so a hurricane is likely to completely cut off roads via washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 This is going to be a large casualty event. A lot of worst case scenarios seem to be coming together (geographically, socially, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Can someone link the sat images page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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