Amped Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Appears to be deepening fast, will have a pinhole eye if it manages to clear out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 30 minute updating floater: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Not a pinhole, but eye is warming/clearing fast...definitely a major now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Not too shabby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 rb0-lalo.gif Appears to be deepening fast, will have a pinhole eye if it manages to clear out. Hi Amped. I'm very unfamiliar with TCs in this part of the world, myself. Consequently, I will likely spend some time looking into the history of Cyclones in this region, as time permits. Although I am always fascinated by any TC of hurricane-force...I'm very concerned about a MH strength system striking in that part of the world. Off the top of your head, do you know what has been the most intense and/or most devastating TC in the general vicinity of where this system is expected to make landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I made a post about it in the West Pacific thread ncforecaster89. Let's say cyclones in this area are pretty rare. Probably the better known example is cyclone Gonu, which strengthened to cat 5, before hitting eastern Oman as a cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Rammb imagery updates more frequently: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I made a post about it in the West Pacific thread ncforecaster89. Let's say cyclones in this area are pretty rare. Probably the better known example is cyclone Gonu, which strengthened to cat 5, before hitting eastern Oman as a cat 2.Phet in 2010 was similar albeit slightly weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I made a post about it in the West Pacific thread ncforecaster89. Let's say cyclones in this area are pretty rare. Probably the better known example is cyclone Gonu, which strengthened to cat 5, before hitting eastern Oman as a cat 2. Thanks mxwx! I also just found and read this excellent article about the history of TCs in the Arabian Sea. It can be found at this link to TWC: http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/cyclone-chapala-yemen-oman-arabian-peninsula Edit: Very informative post you made in the WPAC thread, as well. Interesting, and very understandable, that Yemen has never experienced a recorded hurricane intensity landfall...with the rather arid and mountainous climate in this specific area. Will be praying for those who may be in harms way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 This is all I could find in the DB. The white track was from a weak TD/TS in 2008 that caused 180 deaths in Yemen due to floods...so you can imagine this has potential to become pretty severe in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Kind of an interesting trivia: Chapala is the largest freshwater lake in Mexico, and it's in the state of Jalisco. Hurricane Patricia just went over it a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 It's definitely built a tight core with virtually zero shear. Perfect small cane with a small area of divergence aloft. Blocked out the typical dry air in the area. This just might kick some ass before landfall. Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 Hi Amped. I'm very unfamiliar with TCs in this part of the world, myself. Consequently, I will likely spend some time looking into the history of Cyclones in this region, as time permits. Although I am always fascinated by any TC of hurricane-force...I'm very concerned about a MH strength system striking in that part of the world. Off the top of your head, do you know what has been the most intense and/or most devastating TC in the general vicinity of where this system is expected to make landfall? I am not familiar with Arabian cyclone history. Wikipedia shows cyclone Phet 2010, Gonu 2007 and The 1977 Oman cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I am not familiar with Arabian cyclone history. Wikipedia shows cyclone Phet 2010, Gonu 2007 and The 1977 Oman cyclone. Thanks Amped for the reply to my question. Looks like this will be an educational experience, and may very well be an unprecedented TC landfall for Yemen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Latest track and intensity forecast from the JTWC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I'm reading a lot of messages on social media suggesting a Cat 4 landfall. Although I'm just now familiarizing myself with this geographic area, I would be very surprised if TC Chapala crossed the coast at that kind of intensity, or anything above 100 kt., based on the arid and mountainous terrain its circulation will encounter prior to landfall. This is looking a lot like a Patricia redux in many ways. The main similarities being the cyclones small size, it's prospective rapid intensification to Cat 5 strength, and the likelihood that it will be rapidly weakening in the last few hours preceding landfall. In addition, it's looking like we may very well see another historic and unprecedented TC landfall; this time in a completely different part of the world. Simply amazing! #El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 The recent ADT satellite estimates have leveled off over the past 2 hours after they brought it to 115 kt. Cat 4 intensity. Although the eye has continued to warm and clear out...it has been offset by a slight warming of the coldest cloud tops. Here's the latest IR satellite image, along with the latest ADT estimated intensity graph: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Well, that changed quickly! Cyclone Chapala began rapidly intensifying once again, during the past hour, and now has estimated maximum sustained winds (MSW) at 135 kt. (borderline Cat 4/5 status). That's a 40 knot increase in the MSW during the previous six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Going back to bed with one last look at the latest IR image. Small, circular, and contracting eye, all suggest Chapala is now a 140 kt. category-five. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Nilofar from last year was quite strong/intense (Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm), although it eventually got trashed by shear and wound up dissipating over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Shame its going to pass just south of the Dhofar. That would be a fun place to chase in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I'm reading a lot of messages on social media suggesting a Cat 4 landfall. Although I'm just now familiarizing myself with this geographic area, I would be very surprised if TC Chapala crossed the coast at that kind of intensity, or anything above 100 kt., based on the arid and mountainous terrain its circulation will encounter prior to landfall. This is looking a lot like a Patricia redux in many ways. The main similarities being the cyclones small size, it's prospective rapid intensification to Cat 5 strength, and the likelihood that it will be rapidly weakening in the last few hours preceding landfall. In addition, it's looking like we may very well see another historic and unprecedented TC landfall; this time in a completely different part of the world. Simply amazing! #El Nino Note: I actually do have some operational experience in forecasting in this region. Usually dry air entrainment from the Empty Quarter/extreme deserts to the north starts significantly impacting cyclones before direct terrain interaction can even really take a toll.This situation is a smidgen different as there is a desert front laid out over central Saudi and widespread southeast flow when it comes in for landfall with some "pooling" of moisture to the south, so the typical extremes are muted somewhat. Eastern Yemen receives very little rainfall, even in the highlands, so it's possible that these areas will receive many years worth of average rainfall in a single day. With the lack of vegetation, erosion and slides will be incredible. It's less rugged the further east you go, so direct terrain degradation is likely to be slower than that experienced by Patricia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Shear isn't going to be an issue with this one, so it will be interesting to see how far inland it can make it before completely dissipating. Luckily, there isn't much in the way of population once you get past the coasts in Eastern Yemen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Note: I actually do have some operational experience in forecasting in this region. Usually dry air entrainment from the Empty Quarter/extreme deserts to the north starts significantly impacting cyclones before direct terrain interaction can even really take a toll.This situation is a smidgen different as there is a desert front laid out over central Saudi and widespread southeast flow when it comes in for landfall with some "pooling" of moisture to the south, so the typical extremes are muted somewhat. Eastern Yemen receives very little rainfall, even in the highlands, so it's possible that these areas will receive many years worth of average rainfall in a single day. With the lack of vegetation, erosion and slides will be incredible. It's less rugged the further east you go, so direct terrain degradation is likely to be slower than that experienced by Patricia. Its a very interesting setup. IIRC, most of the big landfalls in this area were further west/north, i.e. Salalah had northerly winds. There will be interesting orographics at play in the mountains up the coast. It's late in the year for this sort of scenario, which is rare enough as-is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Forecast track has shifted south from a largely unpopulated coast to what looks like an utterly unpopulated coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Note: I actually do have some operational experience in forecasting in this region. Usually dry air entrainment from the Empty Quarter/extreme deserts to the north starts significantly impacting cyclones before direct terrain interaction can even really take a toll.This situation is a smidgen different as there is a desert front laid out over central Saudi and widespread southeast flow when it comes in for landfall with some "pooling" of moisture to the south, so the typical extremes are muted somewhat. Eastern Yemen receives very little rainfall, even in the highlands, so it's possible that these areas will receive many years worth of average rainfall in a single day. With the lack of vegetation, erosion and slides will be incredible. It's less rugged the further east you go, so direct terrain degradation is likely to be slower than that experienced by Patricia. Thanks, CS, for sharing your forecasting experience with the unique atmospheric and geographical environment in this particular region. I'm fascinated by it, and am very interested to see how this will ultimately play out from a meteorological and forecasting perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Man...Chapala sure has weakened significantly since its peak earlier this morning, as evidenced by the latest satellite imsges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 So who's on their way to Yemn to chase..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 So who's on their way to Yemn to chase..? To the very best of my knowledge, no one. I don't chase outside the U.S. and Josh said he's not going to chase Chapala. I wonder if anyone we know of has ever chased a TC in the Indian Ocean basin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I can't think of a worse possible place to chase a tropical cyclone than Yemen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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