usedtobe Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Models continue to go back and forth with long range ideas, and that is typical. But with the AO still so positive and expected to be positive into December, hard to believe it's going to turn very cold in the east soon. El Nino climate may win out here, but we will see! I agree though I'm no long range guy. I also see where the euro ens mean goes to a positive EPo along witht eh AO and NAO which if correct would lead to a really warm period towards the end of its run. Luckily, its at the end of the run so the next run may flip back to a colder look with the epo. We need a negative EPO to try to offset the positive AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I agree though I'm no long range guy. I also see where the euro ens mean goes to a positive EPo along witht eh AO and NAO which if correct would lead to a really warm period towards the end of its run. Luckily, its at the end of the run so the next run may flip back to a colder look with the epo. We need a negative EPO to try to offset the positive AO. Both the GEFS/EPS have trended in the wrong direction over multiple runs. The previous cold idea for early Dec has all but vanished. IMO- it looks pretty ugly right now. H5 mean says hello pac zonal for all of the conus and Canada. Source region is flooded so if it were to happen like that the first week of Dec then a step back to cold will take a good bit of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Both the GEFS/EPS have trended in the wrong direction over multiple runs. The previous cold idea for early Dec has all but vanished. IMO- it looks pretty ugly right now. H5 mean says hello pac zonal for all of the conus and Canada. Source region is flooded so if it were to happen like that the first week of Dec then a step back to cold will take a good bit of work. Yeah with the broad positive height anomalies showing up in both models across much of Canada, and then losing the epo ridge, it is not a good look. I really never had any expectations for December though..pretty much like last December. Things could change, but as long as the PV stays intact and we continue to see persistently low heights poleward, outside of something transient its gonna tend be mildish around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 maybe we should worrry about the snow event the GFS has next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Best run this season. .5" for the cities with a few inches in the NW 'burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Heh, GFS has been pushing some interesting weather in a number of its recent runs around this time. Now we're "in range" for some weenie snow maps. 224 hours out is better than 384 lol ETA: REMEMBER THE CAVEATS GFS Total Snowfall Map.png This signal has been showing up for late that weekend for a few days now. Still a long way to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Anafrontal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Heh, GFS has been pushing some interesting weather in a number of its recent runs around this time. Now we're "in range" for some weenie snow maps. 224 hours out is better than 384 lol ETA: REMEMBER THE CAVEATS GFS Total Snowfall Map.png If northern Mississippi is getting 3"+, then we're definitely getting at least a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 1050+ HP cruises into Midwest near end of tonights 00z GGEM run... plus nice coastal in la la land of the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Anafrontal lol Yeah, that always works out so well. 0z GFS still has something late next weekend...and then a stronger coastal around the 5th. Might be a window of about 10 days for something, but man the timing would have to be awfully good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Yeah, that always works out so well. 0z GFS still has something late next weekend...and then a stronger coastal around the 5th. Might be a window of about 10 days for something, but man the timing would have to be awfully good. Well, we're getting to the time of year where it can happen, but hard to believe it will right now. Would be nice to sneak some small event in early if the rest of the near term is going to be crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Yeah, that always works out so well. 0z GFS still has something late next weekend...and then a stronger coastal around the 5th. Might be a window of about 10 days for something, but man the timing would have to be awfully good.3/5/15 redux baby, come to Papa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 We're "only" eight days out from that first cold front that the overnight runs have been advertising for a while. Now it includes a coastal a few days after that (definitely out in la la land and mainly rain here) but could this be a pattern shift for December? Can an expert chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 We're "only" eight days out from that first cold front that the overnight runs have been advertising for a while. Now it includes a coastal a few days after that (definitely out in la la land and mainly rain here) but could this be a pattern shift for December? Can an expert chime in?Obviously, not an expert, but hoping or expecting a pattern change at this point is too early in the season imho. A fluke is probably the best we can hope for at this point I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 12z GFS has something interesting that has popped up at 159 hours, there is energy in Canada that looks primed to dive down into the trough on the East Coast, might be interesting to see if it spins up a Miller B. This is highly unlike any other previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Tonight with very low dews and any precip arriving around midnight not ruled out some wet snowflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 We're "only" eight days out from that first cold front that the overnight runs have been advertising for a while. Now it includes a coastal a few days after that (definitely out in la la land and mainly rain here) but could this be a pattern shift for December? Can an expert chime in? Taken through time...these equations tend to have exponential error growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Which is why LR op runs can change so dramatically from run to run and why looking at an op run way out in time for specific details can be an exercise in futility. For longer range, ensembles are the way to go. As you probably already know Wonderdog, those use members that each have a slight difference that (hopefully)allow them to better compensate for the errors that inevitably present themselves over time. Even then, ensembles can be unstable at times. Ens means are good...but varying initial conds is still a crude and over avg'd way to account for inherent model error and lack of data. Also...outliers can be randomly good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 12z GFS has something interesting that has popped up at 159 hours, there is energy in Canada that looks primed to dive down into the trough on the East Coast, might be interesting to see if it spins up a Miller B. This is highly unlike any other previous runs. Call me crazy, but I'm not at interested to see if a Miller B can blow up. At all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 12z GGEM at the end of its run looks interesting with a closed decent h5 low barreling eastward... and looks like a coastal is starting to form as well... though the 1028 H leaves something to be desired... but the 00z GGEM had the same idea at the end if its run with a blockade of H's to our north... so we shall see if it keeps showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Call me crazy, but I'm not at interested to see if a Miller B can blow up. At all. Crazy! Anything that can help it get wintry is good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 12z GGEM at the end of its run looks interesting with a closed decent h5 low barreling eastward... and looks like a coastal is starting to form as well... though the 1028 H leaves something to be desired... but the 00z GGEM had the same idea at the end if its run with a blockade of H's to our north... so we shall see if it keeps showing up Was just looking at that. Interesting look. Overall there are hints in the guidance lately of a possible window for "something" in early Dec. We have seen much worse H5 looks than what the 12z GFS is advertising at the end of its run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 It's the GGEM guys. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Crazy! Anything that can help it get wintry is good to me! DC in a Miller B: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 How can you not get excited about that 500mb vort loop from the para-gfs ensmebles! http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gefs-mnsprd&area=namer&cycle=20151121%2006%20UTC¶m=500_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 It's the GGEM guys. Sent from my iPhone True, but nothing of consequence wrt weather will be happening here over the next week or so... so I just took a peek at the GGEM for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Call me crazy, but I'm not at interested to see if a Miller B can blow up. At all.It depends on expectations. I always feel like miller b's get a bad rap in here. It's true they are not as favorable as miller a's here, with our south and west location, but we have had several notable miller b storms hit here. Feb 10 2010 to name a recent one. We often can get small to moderate sbows from them also which is fine but some here get upset when we get 3" and Boston gets 20. That's kinda climo though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 It depends on expectations. I always feel like miller b's get a bad rap in here. It's true they are not as favorable as miller a's here, with our south and west location, but we have had several notable miller b storms hit here. Feb 10 2010 to name a recent one. We often can get small to moderate sbows from them also which is fine but some here get upset when we get 3" and Boston gets 20. That's kinda climo though. They rightly get a bad rap. We luck into them on extremely rare occasions - certainly not often enough to look forward to them. They produce far more frustration for us than they do snow. If we were to have a stout -NAO and one showed up in the models, then maybe I'd be more interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 It depends on expectations. I always feel like miller b's get a bad rap in here. It's true they are not as favorable as miller a's here, with our south and west location, but we have had several notable miller b storms hit here. Feb 10 2010 to name a recent one. We often can get small to moderate sbows from them also which is fine but some here get upset when we get 3" and Boston gets 20. That's kinda climo though. Some bad memories for many here from failed miller b events. I actually did decently here in the Dec 2010 Boxing Day storm (about 5") but even that was well less than forecast. The eastern and NE areas in this subforum tend to do better overall in these events I suppose, but I can recall plenty of misses and under performers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 DC in a Miller B: image.jpeg YA! But snow pack close by helps cool temps! I want more of the US in snowpack! I never count on a Miller B giving me snow, but windy cold! I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.