Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I think a lot of folks wouldn't have been surprised at late-November/early-December opportunities (even if that seems to contradict my above post), but with the pattern possibly wanting to set up, it may well come to fruition. Interesting stuff looking at long-range guidance in December. I made a "call" a few weeks ago that it wouldn't totally shock me if we got a look or two in December, and I definitely stand by that. It's not overly bold or anything, but I'm happy to see some hints of it. I still think that if we can scrape a few inches and get good looks, then that could bode quite well for later in the season. That JMA February look I posted yesterday gave me a tingle in the right places. Hopefully I wasn't seeing...well...something that I looked like one thing but was really another. Yeah, somehow I would not be surprised if we get a "look or two" as you say, sometime in the early part of December. I still think we'll end up warmer than normal overall like many have said, but that would not preclude some kind of event and doesn't mean the entire month will be a "meh, wake me up when this awful pattern changes!" kind of one (like last year!). For some reason, I almost wonder if we'll have a relatively warm middle of December, then get colder with more favorable chances toward the end leading into January. Pure speculation there (and some weenie hope, to be sure!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Wedge on GFS seems tough next week! Could we be speaking freezing drizzle in valleys end of next week? Am I out there on the idea? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Once that thanksgiving week energy in the southwest moves east the pattern looks pretty good for first week of dec hopefully we can keep it that way as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Wedge on GFS seems tough next week! Could we be speaking freezing drizzle in valleys end of next week? Am I out there on the idea? Thoughts? Too early and not a legit air mass either way. Flow is NE and ocean is still pretty warm. It will be run of the mill dreary late fall stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Too early and not a legit air mass either way. Flow is NE and ocean is still pretty warm. It will be run of the mill dreary late fall stuff.Ahh, fondly reminds me of November, 1977. I was in college and was sick of close to 10 days of drearydom. But the winter ended up pretty good with the rare performance of a Miller B and 10" where I was living a/k/a Bliz of 78'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Too early and not a legit air mass either way. Flow is NE and ocean is still pretty warm. It will be run of the mill dreary late fall stuff. Great point! Off the ocean! I tell ya... I am trying too hard! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Wow on the -EPO ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 GFS now for multiple runs, along with the euro ensemble mean shows a very nice pattern for first week of December. We even got our first weenie snow run on the GFS tonight. We're a long way out, but it would be so sweet to cash in on the first week of December. Lets gooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 GFS now for multiple runs, along with the euro ensemble mean shows a very nice pattern for first week of December. We even got our first weenie snow run on the GFS tonight. We're a long way out, but it would be so sweet to cash in on the first week of December. Lets gooooo. GEFS support that as well, the whole country is in the freezer to start meteorological winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 No way to not like the gfs ens solutions at the end of the run, IMO. Wouldn't take much for some of them to turn into an early season snow opportunity. This reminds me so much of 09. If I remember correctly, 09 was warm even on Dec 1. Couple of frontal passages later, and a wave of low pressure and we had snow on Dec 5. Again, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 No way to not like the gfs ens solutions at the end of the run, IMO. Wouldn't take much for some of them to turn into an early season snow opportunity. This reminds me so much of 09. If I remember correctly, 09 was warm even on Dec 1. Couple of frontal passages later, and a wave of low pressure and we had snow on Dec 5. Again, IIRC. Yep, that was a great December. Currently number 4 CPC analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 No way to not like the gfs ens solutions at the end of the run, IMO. Wouldn't take much for some of them to turn into an early season snow opportunity. This reminds me so much of 09. If I remember correctly, 09 was warm even on Dec 1. Couple of frontal passages later, and a wave of low pressure and we had snow on Dec 5. Again, IIRC. Unfortunately the EPS took a step back last night and flattened the epo ridge. Hard to care much though. Long range ens runs have been shifting around quite a bit. Time will tell. Personally, I'm generally optimistic for Dec. The big nasty things that can ruin a month of winter are just not showing up as we move forward in time. We're still going to need plenty of luck of course. Dec is tricky. Especially near the cities. You will probably put some # up for the month though unless the wheels come off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Unfortunately the EPS took a step back last night and flattened the epo ridge. Hard to care much though. Long range ens runs have been shifting around quite a bit. Time will tell. Personally, I'm generally optimistic for Dec. The big nasty things that can ruin a month of winter are just not showing up as we move forward in time. We're still going to need plenty of luck of course. Dec is tricky. Especially near the cities. You will probably put some # up for the month though unless the wheels come off. I'm not all that gung ho about winter weather until about the 10th. From then until about the end of Feb, I want an icebox. After that, I want warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 LR 12z GFS shows something which I believe is a typical repercussion of the El Nino. Tell me if I am wrong, but check out the Southern Stream here...I feel like we haven't seen something like this a lot in the last few winters. If we can get a decent cold push we could definitely cash in on something in early December. Bob, thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 GFS still looking interesting. Day 10-11? So close. End of the run..........possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 LR 12z GFS shows something which I believe is a typical repercussion of the El Nino. Tell me if I am wrong, but check out the Southern Stream here...I feel like we haven't seen something like this a lot in the last few winters. If we can get a decent cold push we could definitely cash in on something in early December. Bob, thoughts? It's a split flow look for sure. Ensembles in general have at least a brief period that would support a more southern track storm. But we still don't have a block showing up anywhere so it would have to be timed perfectly. We have to hope the cold front gets through here as quickly as possible too. It's still 10 days away from the possibility of even being cold enough for frozen. And unless the pattern reloads the cold isn't going to be here for more than 3-4 days. Nothing we can do except pass time and watch. Until something real gets inside of 5-6 days we really can't think about or expect much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 WOW! LR but this looks like the freezer door opens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Just for %#* and gigglies, the day 10 EURO is semi weenie-ish. Has a sprawling 1040HP overthe Lakes, with some CAD and a low forming in the SE. Means nothing, but similar to what Bob said if we can get the front to clear and allow a HP to build behind it and then time a shortwave properly we might cash in early DEC. Pattern is far from ideal, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Just for %#* and gigglies, the day 10 EURO is semi weenie-ish. Has a sprawling 1040HP overthe Lakes, with some CAD and a low forming in the SE. Means nothing, but similar to what Bob said if we can get the front to clear and allow a HP to build behind it and then time a shortwave properly we might cash in early DEC. Pattern is far from ideal, but we'll see. Sounds similar to the GFS at day 10 which has the high a bit further west over the plains (so no CAD) and what looks like waves of LP along a stalled front in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yep, that was a great December. Currently number 4 CPC analog. Please please PLEASE don't extrapolate a whole month based on a day listed here. That is not at all intended by this product. Its only meant to show a daily analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Euro ens have been backing off on the EPO d10-15. 2 runs in a row that aren't very pretty. Considering the weeklies initialize from 0z ensembles, I expect the weeklies to look pretty bad week 3 at least. We'll see. The answer to the question about the late month cold pattern being transient or not is looking like transient has the upper hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Euro ens have been backing off on the EPO d10-15. 2 runs in a row that aren't very pretty. Considering the weeklies initialize from 0z ensembles, I expect the weeklies to look pretty bad week 3 at least. We'll see. The answer to the question about the late month cold pattern being transient or not is looking like transient has the upper hand. Yeah...DEC nino climo + (+AO) + (+NAO) = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 IIRC, didn't the last weeklies forecast the epo ridge to break down in that week 2/3 pd? Euro ens seem to be following right along in the LR. Will be interesting to see if this run's week 3/4 push heights back to the N/NW like the previous run. Anyone know the GEFS para has performed so far? Curious if there has been any verification done. Stark difference in the LR vs Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Weeklies don't really look inspiring. +ao/nao door to door and basically neutral in the epo region. It's not a torch pattern but the cold anoms are centered from the SW through TX through the end of the run. Not a snowy pattern anywhere in the east except SNE would probably have some chances because of better climo in general. H5 does indicate an active STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Please please PLEASE don't extrapolate a whole month based on a day listed here. That is not at all intended by this product. Its only meant to show a daily analog. Sorry, could have worded it better. I meant that December 5th of that year was showing up as a top analog. Wasn't extrapolating to the whole month, the pattern should obviously be much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Long range seems to have changed on the models! Not optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Models continue to go back and forth with long range ideas, and that is typical. But with the AO still so positive and expected to be positive into December, hard to believe it's going to turn very cold in the east soon. El Nino climate may win out here, but we will see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Long range seems to have changed on the models! Not optimistic It changes twice a day. No reason to get caught up on any one run. Besides, the most realistic expectation is for a fairly timid December, so people should not get upset if such an expectation becomes reality. Of course, I say all this with the realization that people will freak out no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 12z GFS still showing only brief cool shots and some warmth too. No signs of a lasting -NAO and things are moving all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 EC_GFS_CMC.gif This about as aligned as I've ever seen the 3 major globals at this time horizon. Euro, CMC, GFS continue to advertise higher than normal heights over the eastern 1/3 of north america. At this rate my daffodils will be coming back up in a week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.