nj2va Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I'm concerned. I just sat back today and watched a few lose a couple screws over what some thought about December. LR forecasts are just wagers or semi educated guesses. They don't mean a ton most of the time, yet people still get riled up over them. Personally, I want 75 and sun imby for thanksgiving. I've grown to enjoy it. This. Also it goes both ways - I remember a period last winter where everyone was excited for an "epic pattern" in the heart of the winter. IIRC, we didn't see any snow during that time. I don't bother with the LR...I just stare intently (or blankly) at the models hoping to see a storm pop up with enough cold air in place during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Bob Hensen wrote thos on the Weather Underground. I meant to post it earlier and then somehow forgot. Senility strikes. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/will-el-nio-bring-a-december-warm-wave-to-north-america Maybe tomorrow, I'll post 500h anomly maos comparing the good snow ninos compared to the dogs. It's not always the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Last few runs of EURO really pumping up the SE Ridge as a ton of energy is dumped into the Southwest. Might be able to re-open the pools for a few weeks starting in December if it is right. Straight up terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Last few runs of EURO really pumping up the SE Ridge as a ton of energy is dumped into the Southwest. Might be able to re-open the pools for a few weeks starting in December if it is right. Straight up terrible. Meh, mild weather in December is okay, esp the first half. Be surprised if it torches. Besides, the update from AER yesterday says we are on track for -AO in the long range. Cohen says no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Though it's not showing it properly yet (duh!) I'd say the pattern at the end of the GFS run is a decent signal for something in that timeframe. Not something snowy for us, but something windy and rainy, certainly for the NJ/NY region. There's been a low forming in the Bahamas on several runs now, and combine that with the flow from the Gulf, there's at least potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Yea, that SE ridge is nothing more than a byproduct of deep troughing into the SW. All guidance progresses the pattern eastward through the end of the month into early Dec. We're looking nice and seasonal down the line. I'm not worried about anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 LR GFS is a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 You can't look LR and say it will be all one way or the other. So much volatility and chaos going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 this is new. CFS has us cold 1st week of December before the pool opens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 OPs and ensembles look fairly similar for Thanksgiving. Looks like a cool start and highs in the low 50's. Nice wedge type of HP showing up on all guidance. Prob get a couple warm days sometime shortly after Tday and the system digs deep in the west. Kinda interesting after that. Nice epo ridge / aleutian low placement on the means evolving d10-15. Dec may start chilly. I'm rooting for Dec to evolve unexpectedly and end up colder than normal. Every single seasonal forecast that I've read will bust. Not a terrible look to start the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Wedgie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Theres a tropical storm off the east coast at 240h on the euro. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Theres a tropical storm off the east coast at 240h on the euro. lol Euro long range is BIZARRE! Interesting looking maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 You won't be laughing when the Infallible One is right about sending some tropical up your fanny come verification time. sounds gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 The week of Thanksgiving is looking extremely mild as a ridge is pumped up out of ahead of the energy that is dumped into the Southwest. However, the models are hinting that once that energy moves East the first week of December might be on the cold side, and potentially IMO we could see a decent pattern for a short time, maybe cash in on something. Looks like we get a solid +PNA pattern first week of December on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Hberg, the week will actually be normal to below normal until Sat. HP under the ridge is a fairly strong wedge and not a return flow heat pump until Sat-Sun after the holiday. I'm hoping we get a fairly flush hit with big cold air mass in the west. The kind where you go 10-15 above normal then the front blasts through followed up by 10+ degrees below normal and strong breezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Hberg, the week will actually be normal to below normal until Sat. HP under the ridge is a fairly strong wedge and not a return flow heat pump until Sat-Sun after the holiday. I'm hoping we get a fairly flush hit with big cold air mass in the west. The kind where you go 10-15 above normal then the front blasts through followed up by 10+ degrees below normal and strong breezes. I was seeing this as well. The Wedge seems to hold temps down until Friday.. maybe.. and the wedge may be underestimated. This has been consistent on both GFS and Euro - the Euro though seems kind of odd in some things, but the wedge holds on both! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quagmire Wx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I was seeing this as well. The Wedge seems to hold temps down until Friday.. maybe.. and the wedge may be underestimated. This has been consistent on both GFS and Euro - the Euro though seems kind of odd in some things, but the wedge holds on both! Nice Wedgie!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 that seems to be one of the few things we do fairly well....that wedge is our only hope to keep it festive...praying it holds...even if it is in low 50s and cloudy great...given up on any winter wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 You won't be laughing when the Infallible One is right about sending some tropical up your fanny come verification time. Its happened before. Pineapples hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Hberg, the week will actually be normal to below normal until Sat. HP under the ridge is a fairly strong wedge and not a return flow heat pump until Sat-Sun after the holiday. I'm hoping we get a fairly flush hit with big cold air mass in the west. The kind where you go 10-15 above normal then the front blasts through followed up by 10+ degrees below normal and strong breezes. Hey Bob, your last sentence reminded me of a similar event. I believe it was about mid month of December 2000, a huge cold front swept through which was associated with what I recall being a Lakers Cutter....It was a wild event with tons of wind/lightning....That storm totally revamped the pattern, the NAO tanked. I wonder if we can get something similar during the 1st week of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 that seems to be one of the few things we do fairly well....that wedge is our only hope to keep it festive...praying it holds...even if it is in low 50s and cloudy great...given up on any winter wx In these parts, one should never have any hope or expectation of winter weather on Thanksgiving. This should really go without saying. I'd happily take 65 and sunny on Thanksgiving, and if it's 45 and sunny, I'd take that, too. But cloudy? I'd rather not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 In these parts, one should never have any hope or expectation of winter weather on Thanksgiving. This should really go without saying. I'd happily take 65 and sunny on Thanksgiving, and if it's 45 and sunny, I'd take that, too. But cloudy? I'd rather not. I've seen snow the last two years at my house thanksgiving week, both the Wednesday before. Not much, grill topper year 1, not quite 2 inches last year maybe we will be surprised? ...lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 this is new. CFS has us cold 1st week of December before the pool opens I'll make sure to prep my shorts for the first week of December.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 12z euro would be a cloudy and possibly drizzly TDay w/ NE winds and temps upper 40's low 50's. Fitting weather for the time of year but probably won't be well received if it goes down like that. I personally don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I'll make sure to prep my shorts for the first week of December.. I can't imagine you in anything but prep shorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 GFS ensemble members that I can see look like a colder setup with southeast storminess on several members toward the end of its run. Could we see some more Dec 5 magic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I've seen snow the last two years at my house thanksgiving week, both the Wednesday before. Not much, grill topper year 1, not quite 2 inches last year maybe we will be surprised? ...lol.... We had a Trace on Thanksgiving week two years ago and 1" (while I was away) last year. Still...never should there be an expectation for even just that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 GFS ensemble members that I can see look like a colder setup with southeast storminess on several members toward the end of its run. Could we see some more Dec 5 magic? I think a lot of folks wouldn't have been surprised at late-November/early-December opportunities (even if that seems to contradict my above post), but with the pattern possibly wanting to set up, it may well come to fruition. Interesting stuff looking at long-range guidance in December. I made a "call" a few weeks ago that it wouldn't totally shock me if we got a look or two in December, and I definitely stand by that. It's not overly bold or anything, but I'm happy to see some hints of it. I still think that if we can scrape a few inches and get good looks, then that could bode quite well for later in the season. That JMA February look I posted yesterday gave me a tingle in the right places. Hopefully I wasn't seeing...well...something that I looked like one thing but was really another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 We had a Trace on Thanksgiving week two years ago and 1" (while I was away) last year. Still...never should there be an expectation for even just that! agree completely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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