AvantHiatus Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 thats the sickest block ive seen on the euro Geez...that's just unreal! If--and that's probably a big if at this point--this actually verifies at that time, it begs the question: when was the last time we saw a block anything remotely close to that? I'm thinking literally sometime in the 2009-10 winter, or December 2010. I swear it must have been that long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Geez...that's just unreal! If--and that's probably a big if at this point--this actually verifies at that time, it begs the question: when was the last time we saw a block anything remotely close to that? I'm thinking literally sometime in the 2009-10 winter, or December 2010. I swear it must have been that long ago. That block looks amazing... I really wish I could believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Nice -EPO with split flow and some Greenland ridging progged for Thanksgiving week. If we're going to have a chance at early season snowflakes, it's probably in the Tuesday-Saturday time frame during Thanksgiving week. Favorable pattern looks fairly transient right now, but doesn't look like it goes back to torch afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Nice -EPO with split flow and some Greenland ridging progged for Thanksgiving week. If we're going to have a chance at early season snowflakes, it's probably in the Tuesday-Saturday time frame during Thanksgiving week. Favorable pattern looks fairly transient right now, but doesn't look like it goes back to torch afterwards. f240.gif Nice to see whats being advertised on both the GFS and Euro ens mean wrt to the EPO. Looks at least seasonably chilly for the latter third of the month. We will see about any meaningful NA block. Some subtle signs that the AO may transition to at least neutral in the coming weeks. Hopefully the SAI thing works out for once. We are likely gonna need that -AO this winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The Northern Hemisphere is simply lacking cold air of any significance, of the kind which does not moderate before reaching our latitude. Flakes are still possible in the heart of winter regardless, probably for the rest of the century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 18z GFS still advertising a stormy and eventually a cold phase around the last week of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Near zero just north of the Lakes too! Nicshhhhhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 lol 384 op 2m temps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Nice -EPO with split flow and some Greenland ridging progged for Thanksgiving week. If we're going to have a chance at early season snowflakes, it's probably in the Tuesday-Saturday time frame during Thanksgiving week. Favorable pattern looks fairly transient right nowGood post. As we all mostly expected, any blocking over the next couple weeks looks transient. Euro ens last night show the same type of epo driven cold and split flow in the east to close out the month but low heights consolidated back over the pole. If that's where we are headed then we go warm and boring again when we lose the -epo. However, could be an interesting last 5 days of the month and potentially into early Dec. Euro ens show the core of the cold anoms moving into the east right as the month ends. Considering climo we'll prob be on the outside looking in if anything happens along the coast but at least we have something to daydream about over the next 2 weeks. I'm sure we'll see some nice long range op strikes....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Good post. As we all mostly expected, any blocking over the next couple weeks looks transient. Euro ens last night show the same type of epo driven cold and split flow in the east to close out the month but low heights consolidated back over the pole. If that's where we are headed then we go warm and boring again when we lose the -epo. However, could be an interesting last 5 days of the month and potentially into early Dec. Euro ens show the core of the cold anoms moving into the east right as the month ends. Considering climo we'll prob be on the outside looking in if anything happens along the coast but at least we have something to daydream about over the next 2 weeks. I'm sure we'll see some nice long range op strikes....lol Fantasy-land GFS keeps teasing with a wave developing along a cold front and moving up through the SE with some cold air in place. That's a decent scenario for this time of year. I wouldn't be surprised if we get some snowy-looking solutions in the next few days. I doubt we end up getting anything for real of course, but I think we're going to have a brief window with a chance. I'd be quite happy with SnowTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 LR EURO is pretty gross, huge SE ridge forms as tons of energy is dumped into the Southwest US. Let's hope that doesn't happen. Kind of sucks I got really excited with that one EURO run we had earlier this week that had that huge block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 LR EURO is pretty gross, huge SE ridge forms as tons of energy is dumped into the Southwest US. Let's hope that doesn't happen. Kind of sucks I got really excited with that one EURO run we had earlier this week that had that huge block. Maybe your luck will change when you finally realize Euro is not a acronym Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Ensemble looks ok. I mean we aren't getting anything good around here either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I'm scared of a huge SE ridge in a monster Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Models having alot of probs of late. Euro does have bias of holding energy back in southwest. Although, with the strong nino it would be a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Maybe your luck will change when you finally realize Euro is not a acronym Just a habit I capitalize names of the models when I post. Idk why, I just always have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I'm scared of a huge SE ridge in a monster Nino. not with where the warmest anomalies are. they should force a ridge out west as opposed to here on the EC like in 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Check out the weird Fujiwhara off the E Coast on 6Z GFS, hrs 248-340. Not likely to happen, but pretty unusual even for the model. Also, much warmer than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Jeff Master's wrote this piece on Nino climo. It and the CFS argue for a warmer than normal December. The euro weeklies are warm the first 2 weeks of December. I'm not a long range guy but if I were to guess, I'd go with a warmish December for us. I'd nenver say that ths early in a CWG article as I avow no skill beyond two weeks but feel free to geek out here. Hope I'm wrong about December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Jeff Master's wrote this piece on Nino climo. It and the CFS argue for a warmer than normal December. The euro weeklies are warm the first 2 weeks of December. I'm not a long range guy but if I were to guess, I'd go with a warmish December for us. I'd nenver say that ths early in a CWG article as I avow no skill beyond two weeks but feel free to geek out here. Hope I'm wrong about December. There are basically no indicators for anything except an above normal first few weeks of December. Kind of expected with Nino anyway. I just hope the SE Ridge doesn't get too comfortable or it is going to be a long winter for us nut jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 End-of-Run 12z GFS says "nothing to see here, just another snowy day in Mexico" I think that qualifies as a miss to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 There are basically no indicators for anything except an above normal first few weeks of December. Kind of expected with Nino anyway. I just hope the SE Ridge doesn't get too comfortable or it is going to be a long winter for us nut jobs. Our winter will largely depend on where the low sets up in and around the GOA. All indications are that not only will the low set up in a place that will set up a ridge out west and trough in the east, but that the AO will be negative. There are a lot of things going right for us this year...we just have to be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Our winter will largely depend on where the low sets up in and around the GOA. All indications are that not only will the low set up in a place that will set up a ridge out west and trough in the east, but that the AO will be negative. There are a lot of things going right for us this year...we just have to be patient. what indications? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 what indications? Somehow this is not a -AO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 12z gefs moved away from the warmer look and now looks like the euro d10-15. PNA ridge re-asserts itself. Overall not a bad way to enter Dec. The general pattern progression doesn't really incite Dec cancel fears at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 How we lookin? I can feel it coming.....meltdowns that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 what indications? The warmest SST anomalies are in enso regions 3.4 & 4 which should result in tropical forcing / convection in and around the DL, warm water off the west coast, what should be an active STJ, near record breaking snow cover in the NH. ....among others as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 not with where the warmest anomalies are. they should force a ridge out west as opposed to here on the EC like in 1997. I was poking fun at Highzenberg posting (more than once) about being concerned about a SE ridge this winter, but I can't see any way that one would be able to establish itself in a strong Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Somehow this is not a -AO... gfsanom_np (3).png Must be Global warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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