mappy Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Getting a bit ahead of myself, but it is exciting to see it nonetheless You!? ahead of yourself... NEVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z 11/13 LR GFS is quite cold, dry however. Extremely cold, teens in the suburbs the weekend after Tday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The important thing is that the euro + ens are consistently starting to show fairly significant changes in the LW pattern. Could easily be totally transient and we revert back to a strong +ao/nao. But you have to start somewhere and things are definitely changing. It's nice to see the pv get squeezed. GEFS not as good as the EPS but it's so far out in range it really doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 The important thing is that the euro + ens are consistently starting to show fairly significant changes in the LW pattern. Could easily be totally transient and we revert back to a strong +ao/nao. But you have to start somewhere and things are definitely changing. It's nice to see the pv get squeezed. GEFS not as good as the EPS but it's so far out in range it really doesn't matter. Can't see today's EPS, but the GEFS looks like it's trying to get to a better place, but doesn't quite get there. Are you referring to the 0z EPS, or do you already have the afternoon version? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The important thing is that the euro + ens are consistently starting to show fairly significant changes in the LW pattern. Could easily be totally transient and we revert back to a strong +ao/nao. But you have to start somewhere and things are definitely changing. It's nice to see the pv get squeezed. GEFS not as good as the EPS but it's so far out in range it really doesn't matter. thats the sickest block ive seen on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 thats the sickest block ive seen on the euro 12z ens run supports it too. Big shift from last night. Things are looking more interesting every day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z ens run supports it too. Big shift from last night. Things are looking more interesting every day... That run was sick, been so long since I have seen that strong a -NAO on the euro in a "winter" month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 That run was sick, been so long since I have seen that strong a -NAO on the euro in a "winter" month. If the 12z euro ens run has the right idea, it might snow somewhere in the ma/se before the month is over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 If the 12z euro ens run has the right idea, it might snow somewhere in the ma/se before the month is over... Wasn't even close to the previous run, what the heck changed that caused that. I guess if you look at the previous 4 runs days 10-15 you can see it building toward that but hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 If the 12z euro ens run has the right idea, it might snow somewhere in the ma/se before the month is over...As long as we end the month with AN temps, I'm good with dat! And at this point, though, I don't see how we erase the surplus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 If the 12z euro ens run has the right idea, it might snow somewhere in the ma/se before the month is over... you wont find a much better looking upper level map for mischief.....either way...it looks like Thankgiving week will be our first taste of winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I'm hugging euro ens #18 for now until something better comes along... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I'm hugging euro ens #18 for now until something better comes along... number18boom.JPG above normal temp November with 10 inches of snow. That can please an entire population Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 As long as we end the month with AN temps, I'm good with dat! And at this point, though, I don't see how we erase the surplus. lol- I could care less at this point. It would be too funny if Dec ends up cold and blocky. Every single seasonal will bust. you wont find a much better looking upper level map for mischief.....either way...it looks like Thankgiving week will be our first taste of winter... All we can do is hope the idea holds and then actually happens. We've had more modeled block failures than digital snow failures the last couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 lol- I could care less at this point. It would be too funny if Dec ends up cold and blocky. Every single seasonal will bust. All we can do is hope the idea holds and then actually happens. We've had more modeled block failures than digital snow failures the last couple years. yea..but this looks like it starts to form at day 5...but yes...agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I've watched euro ens runs for years now. I don't recall the last time I've seen a 12 hour flip like this. Last night Today And like Ji just said, the big difference isn't @ d15. It starts happening at d5 and continues. Ji, take a look at the control H5 plots over the pole. OMG that is some wild sh!t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 lol- I could care less at this point. It would be too funny if Dec ends up cold and blocky. Every single seasonal will bust. All we can do is hope the idea holds and then actually happens. We've had more modeled block failures than digital snow failures the last couple years. Nah, I want November AN to test my research/observation that warm mod/strong NINOs with AN November temps all ended with AN snows at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 yea..but this looks like it starts to form at day 5...but yes...agree Looks to me, actually, that the EPS shows ridging over southern Greenland by day 2 that gets stronger and expands through the forecast period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Nah, I want November AN to test my research/observation that warm mod/strong NINOs with AN November temps all ended with AN snows at BWI. AN for the east is a given. I think RDU will be 7-9F AN through the first 20 days. You guys will probably be similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 AN for the east is a given. I think RDU will be 7-9F AN through the first 20 days. You guys will probably be similar?BWI was +6.9 thru 11/13. I think we will end safely AN, but never say never when it comes to weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Bob, et al. Is there something tropics-wise that might be force such abrupt changes to the AO/NAO domains? I honestly don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 BWI was +6.9 thru 11/13. I think we will end safely AN, but never say never when it comes to weather. Funchester is running a cool +8.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Bob, et al. Is there something tropics-wise that might be force such abrupt changes to the AO/NAO domains? I honestly don't know. Just a WAG, but I mentioned last night in the NYC forum enso thread that for the first time in this fall, if not the event, that temps in enso 3.4 now are warmer than enso 3. The shift west means it's closer to the the beloved modoki, not that I'm saying it is now or becoming a modoki. That coupled with passage of time into winter "may" have something to do with it. Idk.Here's a link to the Tropical Tidbits map. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Funchester is running a cool +8.8Sounds like a girl I once knew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Careful with those AWOS obs, they can run warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Just a WAG, but I mentioned last night in the NYC forum enso thread that for the first time in this fall, if not the event, that temps in enso 3.4 now are warmer than enso 3. The shift west means it's closer to the the beloved modoki, not that I'm saying it is now or becoming a modoki. That coupled with passage of time into winter "may" have something to do with it. Idk. Here's a link to the Tropical Tidbits map. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html The Global Warmer disagrees with this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Just like that 18z gfs almost pops a MECS day 8-9, i think the recent model changes are really in response to this great lakes low day 5-6 helps build ridging in nao region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Just like that 18z gfs almost pops a MECS day 8-9, i think the recent model changes are really in response to this great lakes low day 5-6 helps build ridging in nao region. The day after Turkey day is close too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The Global Warmer disagrees with this post.I doubt we agree on any aspect of the weather. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Just like that 18z gfs almost pops a MECS day 8-9, i think the recent model changes are really in response to this great lakes low day 5-6 helps build ridging in nao region. Great Lakes Low: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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