Ian Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 But the 384 GFS showed an epic pattern last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Well this is an unfortunate turn...it's always fun to break records tho in both directions. There is run-of-the-mill waste warmth and then there is your turkey leg warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Well this is an unfortunate turn...it's always fun to break records tho in both directions. There is run-of-the-mill waste warmth and then there is your turkey leg warmth. well, if you go to the next day, 240 hours, you do finally see a 5H low south of the Aleutians, which is where we want it, along with some ridging in Greenland, so patience http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015111112&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 well, if you go to the next day, 240 hours, you do finally see a 5H low south of the Aleutians, which is where we want it, along with some ridging in Greenland, so patience http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015111112&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=288 HA! He wants a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Fast retrograde, I don't buy longer leads even on the Euro. Yeah, I want a furnace....who wants their forecast to be wrong? If snow comes, i'll take it all in tho with love. With an +AO like that, you won't be able to get cold air delivery south of 45N. The lack of -NAO is just more fuel for the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Fast retrograde, I don't buy longer leads even on the Euro. Yeah, I want a furnace....who wants their forecast to be wrong? If snow comes, i'll take it all in tho with love. With an +AO like that, you won't be able to get cold air delivery south of 45N. The lack of -NAO is just more fuel for the fire. zwyts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 zwyts I heard he predicted more snow than WestminsterDeathband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 But the 384 GFS showed an epic pattern last week. 12z EPS flipped back to bn Tday. All is right with the world. Last night was a blip until it isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 LR GFS hinting at +PNA tonight. Hopefully that sticks around. I love this time of year when the end of models runs bring us into December. We wait soooo long for winter to come and we can practically smell it. I live for this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 12z EPS flipped back to bn Tday. All is right with the world. Last night was a blip until it isn't This totally sums up how we all feel about model flip flopping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 12z EPS flipped back to bn Tday. All is right with the world. Last night was a blip until it isn't Weeklies have hinted at a bit of a cooldown near or after tgiving for a few days to a week or so as you probably know. Of course then it goes back to torch. Dec could be silly torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Weeklies have hinted at a bit of a cooldown near or after tgiving for a few days to a week or so as you probably know. Of course then it goes back to torch. Dec could be silly torch. the storm in December will need to manufacture its own cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 the storm in December will need to manufacture its own cold air How's next winter looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Weeklies have hinted at a bit of a cooldown near or after tgiving for a few days to a week or so as you probably know. Of course then it goes back to torch. Dec could be silly torch. Yea, although still over 3 weeks away, if the current persistent pattern occupies part of Dec then it won't be a fun month for us. Jury is out whether the current persistence in the high latitudes is something that is "better to get out of the way" now or the beginning of winter is showing some cards already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 the storm in December will need to manufacture its own cold air Worthless, and looks like something a preschool kid would color with one of those fat crayons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 How's next winter looking? Super Nina with -10 DJF and no precip for the whole winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 the storm in December will need to manufacture its own cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Interesting 12z euro run. Nice squeeze from both sides over the pole. Probably a blip but the evolution starts well before d10 so there's at least that. The strat plots finally show a nice elongation of the PV as well (most noticeable at 30 & 50hpa). It's looked like a perfect concentric circle target at all levels for a few weeks now. Nice to see things shake up a little on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 EPS really bumped up the + height anomaly centered just off the BC coast d10-15. Pretty good look for a normal to BN holiday. On a weenie note...a handful of ens members drop some snow during the d10-15 range...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 EPS really bumped up the + height anomaly centered just off the BC coast d10-15. Pretty good look for a normal to BN holiday. On a weenie note...a handful of ens members drop some snow during the d10-15 range...lol 12z GEFS showed some evolution to the pattern as well with some ridging out west and Aleutian troughing. But way out there still. I think most of December is a punt. Hopefully we can wedge in a nice pattern for a few days somewhere and sneak in something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 ^^^ I sure hope we move that back by 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 ^^^ I sure hope we move that back by 3 days. That ain't nothin but cold wind. I'll pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 That ain't nothin but cold wind. I'll pass. Better that than 60F on T-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Euro ensembles have gotten pretty bullish on the strong ridge in the GOA into NW canada D10-15. This should build some cold in Canada that dumps into the conus. Looks like the focus for the cold is west of the MS river but we'll get our shots in the mix. GEFS diverges a bit from the EPS in the high latitudes during d10-15. GEFS moves the vortex back over the pole with lowest height anoms over AK but the EPS puts the squeeze on with the lowest height anoms in eastern Siberia with more of a ridge look over AK. Overall it's kinda of a strange pattern considering we're in a strong Nino. Aleutian low has yet show any signs of taking shape and having a strong ridge in the GOA region is definitely not common in strong +enso. CPC analogs showing a handful of weaker ones though (04,94, 86, and 51). The only thing I'm really hoping for going into Dec is not having a strong/consolidated vortex over the pole region. EPS and euro op are squeezing things down the line but who knows. Weeklies last night are still warmish and boring for the first 2 weeks of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Euro ensembles have gotten pretty bullish on the strong ridge in the GOA into NW canada D10-15. This should build some cold in Canada that dumps into the conus. Looks like the focus for the cold is west of the MS river but we'll get our shots in the mix. GEFS diverges a bit from the EPS in the high latitudes during d10-15. GEFS moves the vortex back over the pole with lowest height anoms over AK but the EPS puts the squeeze on with the lowest height anoms in eastern Siberia with more of a ridge look over AK. Overall it's kinda of a strange pattern considering we're in a strong Nino. Aleutian low has yet show any signs of taking shape and having a strong ridge in the GOA region is definitely not common in strong +enso. CPC analogs showing a handful of weaker ones though (04,94, 86, and 51). The only thing I'm really hoping for going into Dec is not having a strong/consolidated vortex over the pole region. EPS and euro op are squeezing things down the line but who knows. Weeklies last night are still warmish and boring for the first 2 weeks of Dec. Even the OP EURO 00z was pretty sweet in the LR. Some positive signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z 11/13 LR GFS is quite cold, dry however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z EURO forms a SWEET block in the mid to long range, if this verifies, hello winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z EURO forms a SWEET block in the mid to long range, if this verifies, hello winter. If it doesn't constantly get pushed to the right, then all's good. Big IF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Getting a bit ahead of myself, but it is exciting to see it nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 If it doesn't constantly get pushed to the right, then all's good. Big IF. Correct, it does look a bit east based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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