UnionWeatherWx Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Perfect timing. LR GFS at it's finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 I know I'm not backing it up with any facts, but I'd feel a LOT better about this winter, in fact I'd become pretty giddy if we get a true block to form come end of Nov/early DEC. That would really bode well for the rest of the winter IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Another White T-day. I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 12z GEFS vary between AK death vortex and a raging +AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 12z GEFS vary between AK death vortex and a raging +AO. Buzz kill. Yeah ensembles don't support the OP that's for sure. The 00z EURO was trying to get a block to form. I think the reason the GFS keeps showing it is because it forms an Omega block between a low in SE Canada and a monster low in the N. Atlantic, which in turn pumps up the heights in the NAO region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 most blocks in the long range at 300 plus hours are false positives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 most blocks in the long range at 300 plus hours are false positives Yeah we have seen plenty of hints of a block in the LR the past 2 winters. Other than some cheap transient faux one, nothing ever verified. I am in 'I will believe it when I see it' mode, wrt a sustained -AO/-NAO during the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 I see Hberg and raise him...wow...years since we've seen this. when was the last time we had both a Pacific and NAO that looked that good. 09-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Yeah we have seen plenty of hints of a block in the LR the past 2 winters. Other than some cheap transient faux one, nothing ever verified. I am in 'I will believe it when I see it' mode, wrt a sustained -AO/-NAO during the winter months. same here... I'm not that optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Fozz, we had some decent looks early in 10-11 IIRC but yeah, 09-10 was the last sustained. Obviously I highly doubt the gfs is even close to reality but the run shows the hypothetical progression well. I doubt we have a big +nao all winter this year. We should have some good looks in real time if I had to guess. We're good at wasting good looks though. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Who knows anything about this index? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Who knows anything about this index? Isn't that the MJO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Isn't that the MJO? Seems it may be! ENSO + Velocity Potential MJO (EVPM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Hello? Anyone home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 The long range GEFS and EPS don't have a very good look IMO. If you want cold weather that is. Maybe Bob, Ian, Matt, etc with their knowledge can chime in to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The long range GEFS and EPS don't have a very good look IMO. If you want cold weather that is. Maybe Bob, Ian, Matt, etc with their knowledge can chime in to confirm. 12z EPS continued its shift with higher heights in the GOA / western Canada during d10-15. Verbatim it implies a potentially cool Tday here. Signs of an ec trough getting a little stronger. Way out in time and very muddy but the last 3 runs are moving in a cooler vs warmer direction towards the end of the month. Still a nasty vortex spinning around the Bering sea though. Not going to get much real cold continental air building up with that in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 12z EPS continued its shift with higher heights in the GOA / western Canada during d10-15. Verbatim it implies a potentially cool Tday here. Signs of an ec trough getting a little stronger. Way out in time and very muddy but the last 3 runs are moving in a cooler vs warmer direction towards the end of the month. Still a nasty vortex spinning around the Bering sea though. Not going to get much real cold continental air building up with that in place. LWX made a mention of it in their AFD this afternoon .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX WILL FOLLOW THE PARENT LOW FRIDAY NIGHT...AND COULD RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES OR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED GIVEN AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A PERSISTENT POSITIVE PHASE OF THE AO/NAO AND NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE PNA TELECONNECTIONS SUGGEST THAT ANY COOL SNAP WILL BE BRIEF IN NATURE...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND OVERALL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 12z EPS continued its shift with higher heights in the GOA / western Canada during d10-15. Verbatim it implies a potentially cool Tday here. Signs of an ec trough getting a little stronger. Way out in time and very muddy but the last 3 runs are moving in a cooler vs warmer direction towards the end of the month. Still a nasty vortex spinning around the Bering sea though. Not going to get much real cold continental air building up with that in place. Yeah, looks fairly seasonable, but probably averaging slightly above normal given the lack of available cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Yeah, looks fairly seasonable, but probably averaging slightly above normal given the lack of available cold air. Yea, I carefully used the phrase "potentially cool" lol vs cold. However, I went back over the last 5 eps runs and the shift isn't as subtle. 5 runs ago was a straight warm ridge in our parts with the lowest heights centered in CA on the 24th. Very warm look. Pretty big difference from the 12z run today. Ridge here is all but gone. I just don't want to wear shorts on Tday. I mean I love wearing shorts and tees but absolutely not on that specific holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Yea, I carefully used the phrase "potentially cool" lol vs cold. However, I went back over the last 5 eps runs and the shift isn't as subtle. 5 runs ago was a straight warm ridge in our parts with the lowest heights centered in CA on the 24th. Very warm look. Pretty big difference from the 12z run today. Ridge here is all but gone. I just don't want to wear shorts on Tday. I mean I love wearing shorts and tees but absolutely not on that specific holiday.Be honest Bob, that's the one day you don't want to be showing off turkey legs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 12z EPS continued its shift with higher heights in the GOA / western Canada during d10-15. Verbatim it implies a potentially cool Tday here. Signs of an ec trough getting a little stronger. Way out in time and very muddy but the last 3 runs are moving in a cooler vs warmer direction towards the end of the month. Still a nasty vortex spinning around the Bering sea though. Not going to get much real cold continental air building up with that in place. Doesn't the look of ensembles tend to flatten as you go out further in time? As a general rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Doesn't the look of ensembles tend to flatten as you go out further in time? As a general rule? Absolutely. Another way of describing is "smoothing". And the smoother everything looks the more spread in the mix and vice versa. A good exercise with lr ens plots is to pick a specific point in time and open up the last 3-4 runs in separate tabs. Then toggle through them. Really good insight to which direction things are going. One thing that seems to have little spread right now is the vortex wobbling around between the bering sea and the pole. Looks like 100% consensus at 15 day leads. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Absolutely. Another way of describing is "smoothing". And the smoother everything looks the more spread in the mix and vice versa. A good exercise with lr ens plots is to pick a specific point in time and open up the last 3-4 runs in separate tabs. Then toggle through them. Really good insight to which direction things are going. One thing that seems to have little spread right now is the vortex wobbling around between the bering sea and the pole. Looks like 100% consensus at 15 day leads. lol. I know you're just discussing what the model shows, but imho it seems like a fair number of folks are getting real concerned wayyyyy to early in the game. The reliable seasonal models are showing what we want to see, but not until mid to late January and beyond. As we know, that's not unusual for a NINO, especially a mod to strong one. I say there's a 50/50 shot at a fluke in December, which isn't unusual in any year. Then, unless even this weenie is too conservative, things start getting real interesting and fun come mid January. And I'm going down with the ship on my call of AN snow at BWI. So d@mn the torpedoes, full steam ahead on the Weenie Cruise Lines for the winter of 15/16. Enso 4 is gunna save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Mitch, I've said this before but I don't really worry about or think about jan/Feb until Dec cards have been played. All I'm looking for are signs that Dec won't be totally hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Mitch, I've said this before but I don't really worry about or think about jan/Feb until Dec cards have been played. All I'm looking for are signs that Dec won't be totally hostile.Not you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 GFS advertising another warm up next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 GFS advertising another warm up next week. May push 70 wed and thur in the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 May push 70 wed and thur in the metro areas. can't say i hate the idea. would rather it be a warm november, then a warm january... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Just like that...EPS last night flipped right back to ridge leading into Tday. Boo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Just like that...EPS last night flipped right back to ridge leading into Tday. Boo! gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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