Deck Pic Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 cold wet Novembers usually end up being a waste of good winter demographics winter for us starts in 3-4 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I'm more worried about the very high +AO than the warmth itself. I'm not worried about anything. The AO can always drop later in the month, an if it does average positive (and even quite positive) it doesn't necessarily say a ton about what will happen for DJF(M). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I worry about everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 The GFS is trying to freeze me and DCA out sometime early next week (or the week after). Then again, it is the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Gfs didn't seem too impressed w long range precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 The GFS has been consistent in showing a cold shot (albeit quick) late this weekend and again the week after. Other models kinda show something similar. We'll see. I think we have a good chance of BN temps for a day or two. Not sure why we want them. In the fantasy range, the AO and NAO look to decline, and the PNA shows a rise. That combo would argue for cooler, stormier, IMO. I'm fine waiting until the second half of November, or even later. Until then, sunny and 65 is awesome. It'll come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Not sure why we want them. In the fantasy range, the AO and NAO look to decline, and the PNA shows a rise. That combo would argue for cooler, stormier, IMO. I'm fine waiting until the second half of November, or even later. Until then, sunny and 65 is awesome. It'll come. For me, I'd like to send my grass to hibernation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 For me, I'd like to send my grass to hibernation No need for that for me. As long as leaves are falling, I have to mow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 The GFS has been consistent in showing a cold shot (albeit quick) late this weekend and again the week after. Other models kinda show something similar. We'll see. I think we have a good chance of BN temps for a day or two. Looks transient. Right now I'd think RIC has an outside chance to freeze, but doesn't look cold enough for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 When have we not been screwed by a Miller B? lol Second Feb 2010 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Hearing of hints of a cooler pattern starting in 10 days according to the Euro.. it is 10 days away for the hint so I doubt it. Anyone else see anything promising? STILL way early to really matter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Hearing of hints of a cooler pattern starting in 10 days according to the Euro.. it is 10 days away for the hint so I doubt it. Anyone else see anything promising? STILL way early to really matter! Fairly substantial shift in the LW pattern showing up. It's not a "cold" pattern or a "good december" pattern but it's looking to be quite different from what we are seeing right now. Much more nino'ish with a GOA trough and low heights down around and off the coast of so-cal. Split flow type of look so I assume it will be active along the pac coast and probably continue in the deep south/se. Maybe us? I don't see anything noteworthy yet but I'm definitely interested in where we go from what is being shown right now. If the GOA trough retro's late in the month then the door could potentially open for more anomalous cold that could open the door for at least a chance at late Nov frozen. Long ways to go but getting rid of the SE ridge is good nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Hearing of hints of a cooler pattern starting in 10 days according to the Euro.. it is 10 days away for the hint so I doubt it. Anyone else see anything promising? STILL way early to really matter! The CPC currently has the AO peaking at nearly +5 STD ( ) before tanking after mid month. Hopefully it hangs around for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 The CPC currently has the AO peaking at nearly +5 STD ( ) before tanking after mid month. Hopefully it hangs around for awhile. Yea, the "tank" is relative because it's nothing more than the nasty vortex moving SW towards AK and out of the AO domain space. The "-nao" that is showing up numerically is also misleading to an extent as well. When the vortex moves sw, downstream ridging response in the davis/baffin GL area = -NAO. It's technically a block but certainly a crappy ass pattern if it was happening in DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 All I want is a 24F low to stop my grass. That's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Yea, the "tank" is relative because it's nothing more than the nasty vortex moving SW towards AK and out of the AO domain space. The "-nao" that is showing up numerically is also misleading to an extent as well. When the vortex moves sw, downstream ridging response in the davis/baffin GL area = -NAO. It's technically a block but certainly a crappy ass pattern if it was happening in DJF Yeah that PACJet is cranking, California needs rain badly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 A pattern was made to be broken. Get the bad patterns out of the way now....pay dirt later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 All I want is a 24F low to stop my grass. That's it. Me too. Raking leaves with tall grass sucks. Maybe mulching is the way to go. Too bad it doesn't appear we will see those temps for at least the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Anyone see Euro EPS after middle of the month? Oh it is the Control. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Middle of Nov is when we want to start to see patterns repeating.. pray ffffolks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Lol the Euro control has put up some epic solutions in the past. It's a downscaled version of the op. So basically like looking at the GFS at hr 354. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 It's a downscaled version of the op. So basically like looking at the GFS at hr 354. 324 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Yep, no need to pay to see that Why not? People still pay to go see Vin Diesel movies knowing they suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 GFS says DC might finally freeze in two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 For those bored with the current pattern, just loop P3 at the end of the 12z GEFS run. Lock that S up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 For those bored with the current pattern, just loop P3 at the end of the 12z GEFS run. Lock that S up! 12z GEFS kinda brings a smile to my face. Looks like a gradual step down to a cooler pattern and some troughing by mid month. Just as long as we can build up some +departures big-time before then. I suspect, as may others, that the "pattern change" being advertised on today's GFS/GEFS will be delayed to around Thanksgiving, which is OK by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Delayed and/or muted. All I care about is the pattern ticking toward something better in the long term. Maybe some 300+ hour fantasy snow lol. Only one run has shown DC snow welp, "DC", "November", and "snow" are words rarely found in the same sentence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Okay, my first official weenie winter post. image hosting free The LR GFS over the last few runs is showing a block forming. Searching for those positive signs for the end of NOV. We need that Dec 5th SECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 I see Hberg and raise him...wow...years since we've seen this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Bob Chill, Can I give the first official "Holy sh*t LR GFS!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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