WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2015 Author Share Posted November 26, 2015 I think we are probably just being a bit impatient. I feel pretty confident that storms will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 LR GFS h5 pattern is hideous checking on the the 18z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2015 Author Share Posted November 26, 2015 Baby steps. Let's get some actual weather in here first. GFS ens members still show a potential system possibility for next weekend time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 LR GFS h5 pattern is hideous checking on the the 18z run... On a couple frames in the late 200hr timeframe the 540 thickness line is basically no where to be seen in the lower 48. I mean it barely touches Caribou and International Falls. Not sure I have ever seen that in Dec. The good news is we can't get much worse than that.....I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 The graphics kinda say what the difference is. The top is instantaneous, the bottom is a average of the last three months. It shocks me how negative the NAO was prior to this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Fortunately, I don't have those memories in the back of my head. You're right though--it's early and folks need to watch and wait. My thought has always been that we slowly (emphasis added) transition to a favorable pattern. December usually isn't favorable to us, so I'm not looking for much. I'm not a believer in the oldest weenie defense of "we just don't know yet". I think we're marginally better than last December, but people should probably come to terms that in this nino and this progged pattern our chips are likely placed in early 2016 working out. Like you, I just don't want to see a persistently putrid pattern. Maybe we have a window next week, things get ugly, and we get another small window the last week of the month. If we're ugly on Dec 28 and the overwhelming consensus is we stay that way through early January, I won't panic, but I'll be mildly concerned. This place will have gone nuclear lol. Great post! There's a very long way to go for both favorable or unfavourable signals to materialize when things count most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 New thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47321-december-midlong-range-disco/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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