packbacker Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 The more active the better. Give me a raging stj. I'll be happy to rain most of the time and take my chances with the pattern is less hostile and/or we hit peak climo. We did...but that's not a good reason to keep playing with fire. If my world were perfect, I'd take a good -AO and a massive -NAO that fluctuates like hell Well the good news it can't not block forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Well the good news it can't not block forever. as in this winter, forever? I disagree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 06z advertising two coastals, 12/5 and 12/8-9 time frame. 12z says, coastals? what coastals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 12z says, coastals? what coastals? wow. bigger picture wise, thats bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 wow. bigger picture wise, thats bad news. nah. expected with the pattern. It's just going to take a while for things to get where they need to be. Nov 25th and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 nah. expected with the pattern. It's just going to take a while for things to get where they need to be. Nov 25th and all. Last December was pretty awful too. The lowest temp that month was 26-27F, with only .25" of snow. Obviously this month could end up worse, but that's kind of hard to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Cold rainers.. get used to 'em. I just looked at the 10 mb temps at the end of the GEFS run. It sure has a much colder and stronger stratospheric vortex than normal so the Cohen weakening is going to have to wait until Jan or Feb if it happens unless the model is completely off base about the vortex. I know the vortex is currently really cold and strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Well the good news it can't not block forever. I've been thinking that for several years now. I thought for sure when we had it this winter when we finally got the mainly +NAO and AO in October vs the -NAO/AO in October which at least since 1980 or so you never want to see if you want blocking during the winter because its been the trend the last 20-25 years to see the AO/NAO phase in October flip in early November and want to stay that way in many of the winters. Right now going back to the 2012 or so we have to be in one of the most dominant fall/winter NAO/AO phases since 1990-1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I just looked at the 10 mb temps at the end of the GEFS run. It sure has a much colder and stronger stratospheric vortex than normal so the Cohen weakening is going to have to wait until Jan or Feb if it happens unless the model is completely off base about the vortex. I know the vortex is currently really cold and strong. Have a feeling the +AO is going to be stubborn. I am sure the PV will weaken at some point, and maybe we get periods of neutral or slightly negative. Doubt we can count on complete cooperation from the EPO like the last 2 winters...sure doesn't look favorable in the guidance currently, looking forward into early/mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I've been thinking that for several years now. I thought for sure when we had it this winter when we finally got the mainly +NAO and AO in October vs the -NAO/AO in October which at least since 1980 or so you never want to see if you want blocking during the winter because its been the trend the last 20-25 years to see the AO/NAO phase in October flip in early November and want to stay that way in many of the winters. Right now going back to the 2012 or so we have to be in one of the most dominant fall/winter NAO/AO phases since 1990-1994. We got really lucky the last 2 winters here in the MA. The EPO/WPO and PNA were very good to us, despite the AO and NAO being overall unfavorable. Not sure we get so lucky this winter with the Pacific, and if NA blocking continues to be elusive, with the strong Nino, could be lots of time invested in hunting modeled snowstorms, and hoping for a fluke storm to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2015 Author Share Posted November 26, 2015 End of next week still holds hope on GFS ens members LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Advertised GEFS pattern is still pretty lousy for the forseeable future. It's actually pretty similar to the mean Nov 2009 pattern, but that pattern of course flipped pretty quickly in Dec 2009 to a strong -AO/-NAO. With the strat PV at near-historic cold temps, it's hard to imagine we see that happen anytime soon. Climo obviously starts getting more favorable as we progress, so we have a chance to luck into small events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Euro ens don't look good either. They've held the same look for at least 6 straight runs. I'm not feeling a quick turn around. We've been down this road before. As Wes and others have already alluded to...it's becoming clearer by the day that the high latitudes are going to stink for the foreseeable future and probably beyond. Add in the npac forecasts and it's easy to just accept a hostile pattern for a while. Past history with this kind of look is not on our side. Can it still snow? Sure, it's possible but not probable imo. Do things do a quick turn around during Dec? Always possible but I'm not very optimistic at this point. Yeah, it's only late Nov but until a big shift it on the doorstep I'm not going to buy into anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Advertised GEFS pattern is still pretty lousy for the forseeable future. It's actually pretty similar to the mean Nov 2009 pattern, but that pattern of course flipped pretty quickly in Dec 2009 to a strong -AO/-NAO. With the strat PV at near-historic cold temps, it's hard to imagine we see that happen anytime soon. Climo obviously starts getting more favorable as we progress, so we have a chance to luck into small events. 2009, the polar vortex had already had a warming event in November to help precondition things for the later real warming event, then we had another later in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 2009, the polar vortex had already had a warming event in November to help precondition things for the later real warming event, then we had another later in the winter. weak PV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 If we had a little bit more cold air to work with people would have been going nuts about tonights GFS 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Latest ens runs are showing the worst possible Nino pattern yet. Lol. First third of Dec is looking awful for winter weather in general. I've said this before, not getting snow in a pattern that doesn't need a lot of work to get right never bugs me much. It's when a pattern needs everything to change to get right that bothers me. If the ens have it right then everything will need to change. If you don't want to look at the plots just envision a +nao/ao coupled with a -pna/+epo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Latest ens runs are showing the worst possible Nino pattern yet. Lol. First third of Dec is looking awful for winter weather in general. I've said this before, not getting snow in a pattern that doesn't need a lot of work to get right never bugs me much. It's when a pattern needs everything to change to get right that bothers me. If the ens have it right then everything will need to change. If you don't want to look at the plots just envision a +nao/ao coupled with a -pna/+epo. lol was just looking at the guidance from overnight. It is brutal. All the important indices are completely "wrong" as you mentioned. And out through hr 240 the PV looks about as consolidated and cold as one would (never) want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 lol was just looking at the guidance from overnight. It is brutal. All the important indices are completely "wrong" as you mentioned. And out through hr 240 the PV looks about as consolidated and cold as one would (never) want to see.I posted this last night in the New England forum, but I honestly can't remember when the North Pacific looked that bad in a long time, maybe 2011-2012? Positive epo and wpo and negative pna is a trio we aren't used to. We're used to seeing the Atlantic and arctic sides look horrible with positive nao and ao but not the pac. What is really disturbing is that the Euro wants to form a Bering Sea low. That is a feature that seems to be a common denominator in the worst winters we have ever had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 I posted this last night in the New England forum, but I honestly can't remember when the North Pacific looked that bad in a long time, maybe 2011-2012? Positive EPO and WPO and negative PNA is a trio we aren't used to. We're used to seeing the Atlantic and Arctic sides look horrible with positive NAO and AO but not the PAC. What is really disturbing is that the Euro wants to form a Bering Sea low. That is a feature that seems to be a common denominator in the worst winters we have ever had. With the AO as positive as it is and no hint of blocking, last thing we want is a big trough setting up shop over/near Alaska. As advertised, its an ugly look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Someone explain to me why these graphics are so different...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Latest ens runs are showing the worst possible Nino pattern yet. Lol. First third of Dec is looking awful for winter weather in general. I've said this before, not getting snow in a pattern that doesn't need a lot of work to get right never bugs me much. It's when a pattern needs everything to change to get right that bothers me. If the ens have it right then everything will need to change. If you don't want to look at the plots just envision a +nao/ao coupled with a -pna/+epo. The new GEFS takes over next week, it's much colder than the old GEFS, still not a great pattern to say the least but to see how different they are is interesting. It keeps the pac low further west and gets the higher heights over Sask. instead of Ontario (old GEFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 I'm not worried...but yeah, it ain't pretty at all. It's a bit concerning. This type of Dec look (assuming it's the predominant pattern. TBD of course) brings back some bad memories. Way early so juat gotta watch and wait for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Just embrace it. Here's our chance for a historic shutout. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 It's a bit concerning. This type of Dec look (assuming it's the predominant pattern. TBD of course) brings back some bad memories. Way early so juat gotta watch and wait for now.The North Pacific is starting to behave more -PDO like lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2015 Author Share Posted November 26, 2015 I like the fact that the GFS now has little in the way of stormy weather now in the day 8-10 range because it's been awful in that range for the past couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Lulz at the 12z GGEM... captures the h5 low at 240 and we see a nice coastal low deepening for... rain Oh, and a upper 1030s H in Quebec as well... and is that a CCB at 240 even though it would bring lots and lots of rain? Or a mix -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2015 Author Share Posted November 26, 2015 What I expected, and still do, is a good number of storms. We haven't seen any storminess in the east it seems. That's what I'm waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Someone explain to me why these graphics are so different...? The graphics kinda say what the difference is. The top is instantaneous, the bottom is a average of the last three months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 What I expected, and still do, is a good number of storms. We haven't seen any storminess in the east it seems. That's what I'm waiting for. Would be nice to see some storms soon. Maybe this will be the nino with no coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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