mappy Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Trust me, I'm all for this I like it. I just kinda loathe winter at this point with all the hand wringing over 4" of snow and blatant misunderstanding of a winter weather advisory vs, winter storm warning. /rant this is the MA -- 4" of snow is a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 For you ultimate long range snow fans, new testbed product exclusive to LWX. http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winterstormthreat I find it interesting that we have this new tool and it begins the week of our aforementioned "modeled" snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I find it interesting that we have this new tool and it begins the week of our aforementioned "modeled" snowstorm. Been in the works for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Agreed. Love me some DSS but so many gov officials will fail to understand what this means. i see it every winter when people ask me why the weather service hasn't named the winter storm yet. The EM community continues to get their way and that's fine. We'll issue whatever they want. I'm just tired of having to slice and dice the fcsts in new ways every year. We already have the HWO, SPS, ZFP, AFD, NDFD grids, WaWa, winter briefing page, high impact weekly DSS video briefings, NWS chat, and pre-event conference calls. Something tells me this new product will not be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Heh, no way to sugarcoat the euro ensembles right now. Pretty disgusting. And a really good match to 06. Cohen might be in trouble again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 There's the rub. For a weenie like me, more is almost always better but for you and LWX, this is going to require more of your already limited resources (time, etc). You're constantly trying to balance efficiency and communicating more... Who makes the call on whether to do something like this? Is it straight from the top or management within local offices? These things usually start with local offices then mandated by regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Heh, no way to sugarcoat the euro ensembles right now. Pretty disgusting. And a really good match to 06. Cohen might be in trouble again. ec5daymean.JPG dec06.JPG FWIW Bob, both the Euro and Eurosips show a nice 5H anomaly south of AK in a decent spot come January and February. If that strong anomaly south of AK on the Ensemble map you posted can consolidate with the rest of the low heights around and over AK, we'll be in business. The good news is that we have 6-8 weeks for everything to get its act together south of AK and around the N Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 FWIW Bob, both the Euro and Eurosips show a nice 5H anomaly south of AK in a decent spot come January and February. If that strong anomaly south of AK on the Ensemble map you posted can consolidate with the rest of the low heights around and over AK, we'll be in business. The good news is that we have 6-8 weeks for everything to get its act together south of AK and around the N Pole. Feb 07 with an active STJ would be pretty good. That would make Jan tough to take but it could be worse (92ish). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Heh, no way to sugarcoat the euro ensembles right now. Pretty disgusting. And a really good match to 06. Cohen might be in trouble again. ec5daymean.JPG dec06.JPG Bob going for an epic February. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 The progression in most of the seasonal forecasts I have seen is pretty reminiscent of 2006-2007. It would be a best-case IMO for this winter in my area, given the strength of the +ENSO we have. (I realize the metro areas got shafted in the later-season events that year.) But 8 solid weeks of winter here from 1/20-3/20, finally attaining the seasonal average for snowfall with a mid-March daytime 6" snowfall that was like a mid-winter storm. The February and early March cold that year was legit, and 3" of snow followed by 3" of sleet, topped with a glaze of -FZRA in that mid-month storm was memorable. Worse would be a repeat of 97-98, 72-73, or 82-83 without the anomalous 20-30" region-wide blizzard. I would even take an 06-07 again over a two or three week winter like 65-66 or 86-87. Even if the windows have to open in late-Dec, early Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Feb 07 with an active STJ would be pretty good. That would make Jan tough to take but it could be worse (92ish).I'd take it with the assumption that we would get a much more extreme version of that year since it was basically a weak Niño that barely made the cut time-wise of a Niño event.Ps WVclimo: Imho, lengh of the wintery weather means very little if we get a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I'd take it with the assumption that we would get a much more extreme version of that year since it was basically a weak Niño that barely made the cut time-wise of a Niño event. Ps WVclimo: Imho, lengh of the wintery weather means very little if we get a lot of snow. Yeah, we had 3-4 events from mid-Jan to end-Feb, just needed to juice those up. Did Bob know he was going to excite the masses with his 07 wag.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 The system around the 5th shows up on a bunch of GFS ens members. Not snow, but not out of the realm....yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 07 wasn't that good in my yard. I think the only really memorable event was the big sleet storm. I don't think I hit climo. DCA and IAD didn't either. My post was mostly irt Dec. I don't look too far ahead and a Dec 06 redux would really suck to endure. But what can you do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 07 wasn't that good in my yard. I think the only really memorable event was the big sleet storm. I don't think I hit climo. DCA and IAD didn't either. My post was mostly irt Dec. I don't look too far ahead and a Dec 06 redux would really suck to endure. But what can you do... Complain....it's what we do best when it's not snowing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Maybe the Euro is sniffing this pattern out a few days early, certainly would not be the first time. By the way, a cold start to December with a snow threat mixed in followed by a 10 day warm up would telegraph 2002 rather nicely...that is in case anyone is forgetting. The test there would be are we back in the icebox in time for the holidays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 07 wasn't that good in my yard. I think the only really memorable event was the big sleet storm. I don't think I hit climo. DCA and IAD didn't either. My post was mostly irt Dec. I don't look too far ahead and a Dec 06 redux would really suck to endure. But what can you do... Will never forget that sleet storm on Vantine's Day Feb 07. We moved to Bangkok that day. Sleet started as heavy drizzle on the 13th, turned to sleet in the afternoon and sleeted heavy all night. IAD closed down overnight and was still closed at daybreak, but United said the were going to fly as soon as it opened. So we checked out of the hotel in Tyson's and headed to IAD. About had a riot overy primacy of the ONE Taxi van that showed up to haul the three of us and our 10 bags (folks thought it was their van - haha). Got to IAD about the time one runway opened and were able to go on the ONE flight that United was operating - the flight to Narita. This did not set well for the several thousand people in the check-in area. The poor United employee who had to make that announcement to the crowd had a lot of courage. We departed IAD two hours late, which meant we missed our connecting flight from Narita to Bangkok and had to overnight at Narita. Got to Bkk a day late with temps around 99F and tropical humidity. What a shock to our system that was. Never forget it and hope to never repeat it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Heh, no way to sugarcoat the euro ensembles right now. Pretty disgusting. And a really good match to 06. Cohen might be in trouble again. ec5daymean.JPG dec06.JPG Come on, Bob. It's not even Thanksgiving yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Come on, Bob. It's not even Thanksgiving yet. I know...I know... I wish I haven't drilled into data as much as I have the last 5+ years. My post was mostly based on the AO stuff I've dug into. A big +AO in Dec is hard to overcome more often than not. If the Dec AO comes in at 1.25 or above then there is no way I'm betting on a mean DJF -AO. I can see it now...mean DJF +AO...above normal DJF temps...but due to some pure luck and weird patterns our snowfall ends up climo+ and Dr Cohen declares victory once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 LR in lala land of the 00z GGEM is decent... coastal lows abound in the Day 8-10 time period... the one on Day 10 looks decent, esp with the closed h5 low moving SE I believe in S IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 06z advertising two coastals, 12/5 and 12/8-9 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 07 wasn't that good in my yard. I think the only really memorable event was the big sleet storm. I don't think I hit climo. DCA and IAD didn't either. My post was mostly irt Dec. I don't look too far ahead and a Dec 06 redux would really suck to endure. But what can you do... I hear what you're saying. 06-07 was a winter of contrasts, that's for sure. Quite warm and snowless through about mid-January or so, and it did indeed totally suck. In fact I swear I remember there being mosquitoes around at that time...ugh! I actually overall liked how that winter worked out in the end, though we just missed having the Valentine's Day storm hit us with good snow. We definitely did not reach snowfall climo but the sleetfest and extreme cold during that February, plus the "unexpected" 5" paste job we got near the end of the month made it interesting (there was also a small clipper system early in the month, I recall). I still say that winter was just short of being more memorable for a lot of people; had the Valentine's storm given us a foot of snow, I bet we'd be talking about how great February was that year). I find that this past winter of 14-15 kind of parallels 06-07 in some ways in how back-loaded the season was. Even the February cold was very reminiscent of Feb. 2007. The one thing 14-15 did that 06-07 didn't quite do was give us more snow in the end (exceeding climo). We really cashed in that month into the first week of March. But it was really difficult to suffer through the time period before that (and not knowing how it would actually work out in the end)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 06z advertising two coastals, 12/5 and 12/8-9 time frame. Yeah, saw those...unfortunately, there's absolutely no cold air around. One would think the upper level flow and track would be great otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Yeah, saw those...unfortunately, there's absolutely no cold air around. One would think the upper level flow and track would be great otherwise. and 10+ days away. but its better than NOTHING on the models. besides, we've had events be rain 5-days out that turn into decent snow events. its not impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I know...I know... I wish I haven't drilled into data as much as I have the last 5+ years. My post was mostly based on the AO stuff I've dug into. A big +AO in Dec is hard to overcome more often than not. If the Dec AO comes in at 1.25 or above then there is no way I'm betting on a mean DJF -AO. I can see it now...mean DJF +AO...above normal DJF temps...but due to some pure luck and weird patterns our snowfall ends up climo+ and Dr Cohen declares victory once again. If we get a mean +AO this year base solely on a big positive departure early in the season, I wouldn't be surprised in the least. As long as the periods of negative departures aren't few and far between, I think we have a good chance of cashing in on something here and there. If the above happens and, say, we get 60 days or so of -AO, then I think Cohen can grow all he wants. I hope he can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Yeah, saw those...unfortunately, there's absolutely no cold air around. One would think the upper level flow and track would be great otherwise. I saw that... but one would think there would be cold air around with a 1040+ H sitting in prime position... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 and 10+ days away. but its better than NOTHING on the models. besides, we've had events be rain 5-days out that turn into decent snow events. its not impossible True enough, and I am glad to see it "active" at the very least. Better than a non-stop southeast ridge. If we can push some colder air in at some point, or get the -AO/-NAO to cooperate a few times this season, that would be a big help. I saw that... but one would think there would be cold air around with a 1040+ H sitting in prime position... Ha! Yeah, no kidding! There actually is some cold air, sort of for awhile, but if you blink you might miss it! If I saw that set-up with no other knowledge of the flow in Canada or the temperatures, I'd think it would be a great hit. Alas, there's no blocking and it's more like a southern stream cut-off from the main Pacific flow flooding Canada and the US, so the high just scoots right out. Bleah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Yeah, saw those...unfortunately, there's absolutely no cold air around. One would think the upper level flow and track would be great otherwise. the fact that we are starting to see some coastals pop is great news, imo, since the pattern we are in cycles every 50 days or so which brings us right into the heart of winter. The week of , January 18th, we should be looking at some pretty fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I know...I know... I wish I haven't drilled into data as much as I have the last 5+ years. My post was mostly based on the AO stuff I've dug into. A big +AO in Dec is hard to overcome more often than not. If the Dec AO comes in at 1.25 or above then there is no way I'm betting on a mean DJF -AO. I can see it now...mean DJF +AO...above normal DJF temps...but due to some pure luck and weird patterns our snowfall ends up climo+ and Dr Cohen declares victory once again. With +QBO/low solar (sub 150sfu) niños we have never had a mean DJF -AO when Dec was positive, that I could find. Granted that's 1/3 of the mean when Dec is + but still. I still think we see bouts of -AO in Feb. I am really beginning to dislike nino's....although you guys have done fairly well with +AO the past 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Cold rainers.. get used to 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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