WinterWxLuvr Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 With November being a month capable of bringing winter weather, and the other thread being dedicated to winter in general, it's time to create our annual place to discuss the medium to long range. We will probably start out slowly, but I anticipate that toward the end of the month things will pick up considerably. So let's get this started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Haven't been particularly close to a freeze here (and DCA), and nothing in the offing in the near term. GFS MOS is 78 at day 6, which is quite warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Average temp by Nov. 30th at DCA is 52/37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Torchvember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I don't mind a warm November, long as it leads to a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 Get in here Bob. Natives already restless. Seriously, not sure why anybody even cares about the first couple of weeks. After that it's time to start looking. Not likely, but increasingly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 Torchvember. Wouldn't Torch-o-vember be better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Get in here Bob. Natives already restless. Seriously, not sure why anybody even cares about the first couple of weeks. After that it's time to start looking. Not likely, but increasingly possible. Yup. Anyone freaking out because early November looks warm needs a multi-weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Yup. Anyone freaking out because early November looks warm needs a multi-weenie. Idk about that, anything opposite of last year's progression gives me pause. But I'm not canceling winter by any means, far from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Yup. Anyone freaking out because early November looks warm needs a multi-weenie. I'm more worried about the very high +AO than the warmth itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Ji hasn't canceled yet, so we're still good. I'm not ready to reinstitute the winter despair index yet.Huh? He's beyond this winter and already cancelled next year. The man brings new meaning to forward thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Any example of good winters that started with a warm November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Ji hasn't canceled yet, so we're still good. I'm not ready to reinstitute the winter despair index yet. Oh, I think you could pull it up and place it at a 2 just for general angst in the forum........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Any example of good winters that started with a warm November?No. Never ever happened. Ever. Warm first two weeks in November means we are San Diego until April.Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Any example of good winters that started with a warm November? Well, the top three torchy Novembers (ave temp > 54.0) resulted in 5", 2.2", and 20.1" at DCA. Lower the threshold to just warm brings in some others that we like (cough, 09-10). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 2009-2010 Got it, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Any example of good winters that started with a warm November?57/58, 83/64, 82/83, & 87/88 in addition to 09/10 mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I'm not sold that the month ends up with big + anoms. I'm thinking along the same lines as Ian. The first 10 days are going to throw up some solid + departures but there are already signs of some dents in the torch armor showing up by as early as the 9-10th. Beyond that is anyone's guess. Our "torch" is mostly due to the ridge response down stream from the rPNA. SE Canada has a pretty cold pattern at the same time. Not an optimal source region for us like NE but we'll see how things progress. I'm not sold on a -pna / +AO combo through the entire month. OTOH- I'm definitely going to enjoy next week either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 We should put a filter on any mention of 09/10 and this year. I'll go on a limb and say no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 57/58, 83/64, 82/83, & 87/88 in addition to 09/10 mentioned above. A better questions would be is there a mod+ Nino that had a warm Nov and followed with below normal snowfall for the winter....although I see Bob is questioning just how warm we end the month. CFS is going Kenny Rogers Roasters on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 There's always a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 A better questions would be is there a mod+ Nino that had a warm Nov and followed with below normal snowfall for the winter....although I see Bob is questioning just how warm we end the month. CFS is going Kenny Rogers Roasters on us. not up here since 1957....recall my post in the winter thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45991-winter-2015-2016-speculation-and-discussion/?p=3733515 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 We should put a filter on any mention of 09/10 and this year. I'll go on a limb and say no chance. we just dont know yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 this Nov will be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Shorts on T-day weekend, winter cancel. Coats on T-day weekend, winter only probably cancelled. Pretty simple really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 First sn showing up on the text output on the 12z gfs....only 340 hrs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 First sn showing up on the text output on the 12z gfs....only 340 hrs away HaHa. Yeah was just gonna ask if anyone saw the 300+ timeframe on the GFS. Here's to hopefully many sleepless nights over the next 4 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 BTW, somebody, we usually pin this thread so it stays near the top. Can somebody take care of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 cold wet Novembers usually end up being a waste of good winter demographics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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