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My Winter 2015-16 Forecast


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Raleigh:

Very clear essay.

It seems that the 1982-1983 analog keeps showing up.

BTW, are the SST anomalies showing a consistent, sustained

warm trend across much of the globe?

Definitely some strong areas of above normal waters but also some colder than normal waters. I dont have a spatial average, but it certainly looks like there is more warmer than normal areas then colder than normal areas right now.

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Always tough since it is a change of seasons. I would expect the first half would be colder than normal East/warmer than normal west. With that pattern relaxing 2nd half of March.

Thanks , pretty much a back loaded winter for the NE.  Interesting in that in NNE you are calling for what would be record low snowfall totals with your % as assigned.

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