November 2015 temp forecast contest (and bonus snowfall contest)

[Tom]

just edited my snowfall 11/4

[Roger Smith]

A very warm start to November ... watch for further updates edited into this post every second day to 14th...

 

_____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

____ (5d) ____ +6.7 _ +9.3 _ +9.6 ____ +12.6 _ +6.9 _ +2.7 __ +7.6 _ --1.6 _ --0.4

____ (8d) ____ +7.5 _ +9.9 _+10.3_____ +8.4 _ +6.1 _ +2.4 __ +4.2 _ --1.9 _ +1.2

___ (10d) ____ +5.9 _ +8.4 _ +8.8 _____ +6.7 _ +4.6 _ +1.8 __ +4.6 _ --1.7 _ +0.7

___ (12d) ____ +6.0 _ +8.0 _ +8.0 _____ +6.7 _ +4.8 _ +2.5 __ +3.2 _ --2.4 _ +0.8

 

___ (p19d) ___ +4.0 _ +6.7 _ +6.7 _____ +5.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ --3.5 _ +1.6

 

___ (p30d) ___ +1.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 _____ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.2 __ --2.0 _ --3.0 _ +0.2

 

(6th) _ The 12z GFS shows marked cooling after the 17th, the projections would be roughly 2-3 deg higher if that fails to happen, but anything sustained might surprise all of us and bring these anomalies down further.

 

(9th) _ The regime from 15th to 25th appeared fairly close to normal with day to day variations so I tended to assume that the anomalies on 15th would be reduced by about 40% by 25th. Anywhere from +1 to +5 for the east and ORD probably quite plausible.

 

(11th) _ Generally a rather cold pattern developing in the Midwest with some influence on the east coast at times, anomalies are likely to keep dropping slowly for most locations.

 

(13th) _ The plunge at the end of the month makes the provisionals very uncertain, if that backs off then values will be closer to the p19 numbers which will likely survive to about the 24th before -8 anomalies or colder kick in. Would not be too surprised if this needs a big revision but this is what the models show at the present time. Next update for 14 days in new post then daily countdown.

 

In the snowfall department, DEN has now received 3.3" with more possible later today. (11th).

[Roger Smith]

Continuing the countdown, daily from now to end of month ...

 

_____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

____ (5d) ____ +6.7 _ +9.3 _ +9.6 ____ +12.6 _ +6.9 _ +2.7 __ +7.6 _ --1.6 _ --0.4

___ (10d) ____ +5.9 _ +8.4 _ +8.8 _____ +6.7 _ +4.6 _ +1.8 __ +4.6 _ --1.7 _ +0.7

___ (14d) ____ +5.4 _ +6.9 _ +7.1 _____ +5.5 _ +3.6 _ +1.7 __ +3.4 _ --2.1 _ +1.1

___ (15d) ____ +5.0 _ +6.4 _ +6.7 _____ +6.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.6 __ +3.9 _ --2.1 _ +0.8

___ (16d) ____ +5.1 _ +6.7 _ +6.6 _____ +6.3 _ +2.9 _ +2.0 __ +3.8 _ --2.5 _ +0.5

___ (17d) ____ +5.1 _ +6.3 _ +5.9 _____ +6.7 _ +3.1 _ +2.1 __ +3.3 _ --2.9 _ +0.8

___ (18d) ____ +5.1 _ +6.2 _ +5.3 _____ +7.2 _ +3.6 _ +1.9 __ +3.1 _ --3.1 _ +0.6

___ (19d) ____ +5.6 _ +6.6 _ +5.3 _____ +7.0e_+3.8 _ +1.9 __ +2.7 _ --3.0 _ +0.4

___ (20d) ____ +5.5 _ +6.7 _ +5.5 _____ +6.5 _ +3.8 _ +1.9 __ +2.6 _ --2.8 _ +0.2

___ (21d) ____ +5.1 _ +6.5 _ +5.2 _____ +5.6 _ +3.6 _ +1.6 __ +1.9 _ --2.4 __ 0.0

___ (22d) ____ +4.7 _ +6.3 _ +5.0 _____ +4.4 _ +3.0 _ +0.9 __ +2.1 _ --2.0 __ 0.0

___ (23d) ____ +4.1 _ +5.7 _ +4.5 _____ +4.0 _ +2.5 _ +0.3 __ +2.4 _ --1.7 _ --0.3

___ (24d) ____ +3.8 _ +5.2 _ +4.0 _____ +3.6 _ +2.1 _ +0.1 __ +2.9 _ --1.3 _ --0.4

___ (25d) ____ +3.7 _ +4.9 _ +3.7 _____ +3.6 _ +1.9 _ +0.4 __ +2.8 _ --1.1 _ --0.6

___ (26d) ____ +3.8 _ +5.0 _ +3.8 _____ +4.2 _ +2.1 _ +0.8 __ +2.2 _ --1.2 _ --0.7

___ (27d) ____ +3.9 _ +5.3 _ +4.2 _____ +4.4 _ +2.4 _ +1.3 __ +1.3 _ --1.4 _ --0.8

___ (28d) ____ +4.2 _ +5.4 _ +4.4 _____ +4.3 _ +2.7 _ +1.3 __ +0.8 _ --1.6 _ --1.0

___ (29d) ____ +4.3 _ +5.2 _ +4.2 _____ +4.1 _ +3.1 _ +0.9 __ +0.4 _ --1.8 _ --1.4

 

___ (30d) ____ +4.1 _ +5.0 _ +3.8 _____ +4.3 _ +3.7 _ +0.8 __ +0.2 _ --2.0 _ --1.6

 

As of 1045h EST on 1st of December, all stations are now final as shown above in bold type. Scoring is now updated. 

 

DEN now up to 11.3" total snowfall and ORD reported 11.2" with their second largest November snowstorm on record on 19th-20th, while all other locations remain at zero.

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for November 2015

 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS___clas____ORD_ATL_IAH ___ exp _____ TOTALS

 

DonSutherland.1 _________ 92 _ 84 _ 98 ____ 274 ____ 90 _ 70 _ 86 ____ 246 _____ 520

OHweather ______________98 _ 70 _ 84 ____ 252 ____ 94 _ 86 _ 80 ____ 260 _____ 512

Isotherm ________________ 96 _ 84 _ 88 ____ 268 ____ 94 _ 66 _ 82 ____ 242 _____ 510

ksammut ________________88 _ 82 _ 92 ____ 262 ____ 98 _ 66 _ 82 ____ 246 _____ 508

Mallow _________________ 96 _ 78 _ 86 ____ 260 ____ 90 _ 96 _ 60 ____ 246 _____ 506

Midlo Snow Maker ________ 68 _ 80 _ 82 ____ 230 ____ 90 _ 96 _ 56 ____ 242 _____ 472

Damage in Tolland ________80 _ 50 _ 64 ____ 194 ____ 84 _ 92 _ 96 ____ 272 _____ 466

H2OTown_Wx ___________ 84 _ 72 _ 80 ____ 236 ____ 98 _ 76 _ 82 ____ 256 _ 492

_____________ (-6%) _____ 79 _ 68 _ 75 ____ 222 ____ 92 _ 71 _ 77 ____ 240 _____ 462

..

Consensus ______________ 76 _ 60 _ 84 ____ 220 ____ 76 _ 66 _ 94 ____ 236 _____ 456

..

Maxim __________________68 _ 60 _ 74 ____ 202 ____ 84 _ 66 _ 94 ____ 244 _____ 446
RodneyS ________________86 _ 64 _ 84 ____ 234 ____ 66 _ 58 _ 86 ____ 210 _____ 444

blazess556 ______________68 _ 62 _ 68 ____ 198 ____ 82 _ 70 _ 90 ____ 242 _____ 440

Roger Smith _____________ 68 _ 54 _ 84 ____ 206 ____ 54 _ 66 _ 86 ____ 206 _____ 412

BKViking ________________62 _ 42 _ 74 ____ 178 ____ 70 _ 58 _ 94 ____ 222 _____ 400

Tom ___________________ 66 _ 56 _ 82 ____ 204 ____ 50 _ 58 _ 86 ____ 194 _____ 398

Rjay ___________________ 78 _ 60 _ 74 ____ 212 ____ 54 _ 56 _ 74 ____ 184 _____ 396

Stebo __________________ 64 _ 54 _ 88 ____ 206 ____ 56 _ 70 _ 60 ____ 186 _____ 392

 

hudsonvalley21 ___________84 _ 60 _ 84 ____ 228 ____ 80 _ 62 _ 92 ____ 234 _ 462

_____________ (-20%) ____ 67 _ 48 _ 67 ____ 182 ____ 64 _ 50 _ 74 ____ 188 _____ 370

 

Tenman Johnson _________ 68 _ 70 _ 86 ____ 224 ____ 00 _ 46 _ 96 ____ 142 _____ 366

dmillz25 _________________52 _ 40 _ 66 ____ 158 ____ 54 _ 52 _100____ 206 _____ 364

wxdude64 _______________ 58 _ 30 _ 52 ____ 140 ____ 24 _ 48 _ 92 ____ 164 _____ 304 

SD _____________________48 _ 20 _ 44 ____ 112 ____ 34 _ 36 _ 84 ____ 154 _____ 266

..

Normal __________________18 _ 00 _ 24 ____ 042 ____ 14 _ 26 _ 84 ____ 124 _____ 166

 

 

Final scoring for western contest Nov 2015

 

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA_____ TOTAL

 

 

ksammut _________________76 _100_ 90 _____ 266

Tom ____________________ 86 _ 76 _ 82 _____ 244

OHweather _______________96 _ 80 _ 64 _____ 240

Mallow __________________ 82 _ 94 _ 60 _____ 236

SD _____________________ 68 _ 80 _ 88 _____ 234

 

Consensus _______________96 _ 76 _ 60 _____ 232

 

Stebo ___________________54 _ 94 _ 80 _____ 228

Isotherm _________________84 _ 76 _ 68 _____ 228

Rjay ____________________96 _ 80 _ 48 _____ 224

 

Normal __________________96 _ 60 _ 68 _____ 224

 

RodneyS ________________90 _ 62 _ 64 _____ 216

Maxim __________________ 74 _ 90 _ 48 _____ 212

blazess556 ______________ 78 _ 86 _ 44 _____ 208

Don Sutherland.1 _________ 80 _ 74 _ 52 _____ 206

wxdude64 _______________ 74 _ 70 _ 62 _____ 206

BKViking ________________ 70 _ 66 _ 58 _____ 194

dmillz25 _________________76 _ 70 _ 38 _____ 184

H2OTown_Wx ___________ 80 _ 36 _ 76 _ 204

______________ (-6%) ____ 75 _ 34 _ 71 _____ 180

Midlo Snow Maker _________00 _ 78 _ 92 _____ 170

Damage in Tolland ________ 88 _ 42 _ 38 _____ 168

hudsonvalley21 ___________70 _ 64 _ 60 _ 194

______________ (-20%) ___ 56 _ 51 _ 48 _____ 155

wxallannj ________________74 _ 36 _ 30 _____ 140

Roger Smith _____________ 34 _ 16 _ 00 _____ 050

 

 

[Roger Smith]

<<< Annual Scoring updated Jan-Nov 2015 >>>

 

 

 

FORECASTER _______ DCA_NYC_BOS__clas__ORD_ATL_IAH__exp__ TOTAL __ best scores (6 loc, 2 grps, mo)

 

Isotherm _____________ 743 . 669 . 674 .. 2086 __ 788 . 692 . 828 .. 2308 __ 4394 _ 010000

Damage in Tolland _____ 823 . 621 . 647 .. 2091 __ 732 . 780 . 688 .. 2200 __ 4291 _ 200102..1.3..OCT

..

Consensus ___________ 735 . 557 . 613 .. 1905 __ 780 , 753 . 822 .. 2355 __ 4260

.. 

DonSutherland.1 ______ 745 . 589 . 641 .. 1975 __ 793 . 657 . 808 .. 2258 __ 4233 _ 112001..2.1..MAR,JUL,NOV

ksammut _____________704 . 651 . 749 .. 2104 __ 713 . 581 . 810 .. 2104 __ 4208 _ 002402..3.0..SEP,OCT

Midlo Snow Maker _____758 . 559 . 545 .. 1862 __ 731 . 762 . 729 .. 2222 __ 4084 _ 300041..3.2..APR

.

RodneyS ____________ 746 . 595 . 597 .. 1938 __ 608 . 782 . 730 .. 2120 __ 4058 _ 220130

wxallannj ____________ 734 . 573 . 595 .. 1902 __ 687 . 684 . 778 .. 2149 __ 4051 _ 101100

BKViking ____________ 655 . 516 . 620 .. 1791 __ 709 . 763 . 778 .. 2250 __ 4041 _ 010000

Mallow ______________723 . 580 . 562 .. 1865 __ 638 . 745 . 770 .. 2153 __ 4018 _ 130021..1.1..JAN

Tom ________________673 . 496 . 595 .. 1764 __ 756 . 698 . 760 .. 2214 __ 3978 _ 000100..0.1

.

blazess556 __________ 733 . 499 . 513 .. 1745 __ 748 . 706 . 759 .. 2213 __ 3958

wxdude64 ___________ 670 . 545 . 579 .. 1794 __ 593 . 688 . 811 .. 2092 __ 3886 _ 000000..0.1..JUN

Rjay ________________ 700 . 503 . 561 .. 1764 __ 596 . 724 . 798 .. 2118 __ 3882 _ 121010..0.0..MAY

Tenman Johnson ______675 . 527 . 501 .. 1703 __ 597 . 714 . 860 .. 2171 __ 3874 _ 211013..0.1..FEB
Stebo _______________ 641 . 457 . 503 .. 1601 __ 708 . 650 . 739 .. 2097 __ 3698 _ 100000

 

Maxim* ______________ 669 . 508 . 487 .. 1664 __ 656 . 706 . 668 .. 2030 __ 3694 _ 100110

Roger Smith __________ 525 . 478 . 634 .. 1637 __ 604 . 678 . 682 .. 1964 __ 3601 _ 001210

hudsonvalley21* _______617 . 486 . 501 .. 1604 __ 633 . 602 . 736 .. 1971 __ 3575 _ 000102

SD __________________602 . 375 . 414 .. 1391 __ 638 . 710 . 724 .. 2072 __ 3463 _ 000020..0.0..AUG  

 

Normal ______________  522 . 386 . 468 .. 1376 __ 588 . 628 . 794 .. 2010 __ 3386 

 

Absolute Humidity****____470 . 380 . 448 .. 1298 __ 545 . 413 . 520 .. 1478 __ 2776_ 011000..1.0

dmillz25***** __________ 388 . 288 . 290 .... 966 __ 206 . 456 . 536 .. 1198 __ 2164 _000011
N. of Pike******* _______ 218 . 148 . 159 .... 525 __ 196 . 126 . 140 .... 462 ___ 987

H2OTown__Wx *********_ 135 ... 96 ... 95 .... 326 ___ 98 . 127 ... 81 .... 306 ___632
OHweather**********_____ 98 ... 70 ... 84 .... 252 ___ 94 ... 86 ... 80 .... 260 ___ 512 _100000
metalicwx366*********____ 70 ... 92 ... 96 .... 258 ____66 ... 96 ... 42 .... 204 ___ 462_ 001010..1.0
mikehobbyst*********____101 . 108 ... 71 .... 280 ____ 38 ... 48 ... 50 .... 136 ___ 416_ 111000..1.0

Quixotic1*********_______ 76 ... 49 ... 60 .... 185 ____ 78 ... 50 ... 92 .... 220 ___ 405

UnionWeatherWx**********_72 .. 32 ... 38 .... 142 ____ 78 ... 90 ... 82 .... 250 ___ 392

Carvers Gap********______63 .. 39 ... 38 ....140 ____104 ... 60 ... 80 .... 244 ___ 384

Weatherguy701 *********__54 ... 28 ... 29 ....111 ____ 82 ... 70 ... 98 .... 250 ___ 361_ 000001..0.1

IntenseBlizzard2014**********82 .06 ... 22 .... 110 ____74 ... 92 ... 84 .... 250 ___ 360

EPluribusUnum *********__ 58 ... 86 ... 72 .... 216 ____26 ... 66 ... 42 .... 134 ___ 350

SACRUS *********_______ 78 ... 36 ... 40 .... 154 ____88 ... 68 ... 06 .... 162 ___ 316
hockeyinc *********_______00 ... 00 ... 00 .... 000 ____30 ... 26 ... 00  .... 056 ____56
Uncle W *********________ 00 ... 00 ... 00 .... 000 ____00 ... 30 ... 10 .... 040 ____ 40

 

* missed one month 

[Roger Smith]

Western contest annual updates (final) Jan - Nov 2015

 

 

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA__ TOTAL __ (all 9 in brackets) = ranks __ best scores (west)

 

Isotherm _______________ 630_685_ 812____2127 ______ (6521) = 1 ________ 1 0 2 __ JUN, JUL

Midlo Snow Maker ________471_728_820____2019 ______ (6103) = 3 ________ 2 2 3 __ JAN

Damage in Tolland _______ 580_685_613____1878 ______ (6169) = 2 ________ 1 4 0 __ AUG

Donsutherland.1 _________ 516_662_676____1854 ______ (6087) = 4 ________ 0 0 0

Mallow _________________470_662_650____1782 ______ (5800) = 5 ________ 1 1 0

Roger Smith ____________ 484_531_704 ____1719 ______ (5320) =11 ________0 1 1 __ OCT 

..

Consensus ______________536_560_606____1702______ (5962) = 5 ________ 3 0 0

..

wxdude64 ______________ 565_541_566 ____1672 ______ (5558) = 8 ________ 1 1 0

wxallannj _______________ 495_504_563 ____1562 ______ (5613) = 6

Tom ___________________472_581_499 ____1552 ______ (5530) = 9

SD ____________________ 470_550_513 ____1533 ______ (4996) =16________ 2 0 0 __ APR

RodneyS _______________ 534_407_585 ____1526 ______ (5584) = 7 ________ 2 0 2

Maxim*_________________ 374_543_594 ____1511 ______ (5205) =15 ________ 0 0 1

..

Normal _________________506_506_386 ____1398 ______ (4784) =19 ________ 1 1 0

..

blazess556 ______________376_477_512 ____1365 ______ (5323) =12 ________ 0 0 2

Rjay ___________________ 401_466_461 ____1328 ______ (5210) =14 ________ 1 0 1 __ SEP

ksammut ________________348_390_570 ____1308 ______ (5516) =10 ________ 0 1 0 __ NOV

Stebo __________________ 364_436_479 ____1279 ______ (4977) =17 ________ 1 1 0 __ MAY

BKViking ________________322_460_479 ____1261 ______ (5302) =13

hudsonvalley21*__________ 363_478_382 ____1223 ______ (4798) =18 ________ 0 0 1

Absolute Humidity **** _____ 352_328_329 ____1009 ______ (3785) =20

dmillz25***** _____________ 198_358_290 ____ 846 ______ (3010) =21

N. of Pike ******* __________ 217_191_200 ____ 608 ______ (1595) = 22

mikehobbyst********* _______ 138_139_137 ____ 414 _______ (830) =23 ________ 1 1 0 __ FEB,MAR

H2OTown_Wx*********______145 _ 84_147 ____ 376 _______(1008) =32

OHweather _______________ 96 _ 80 _ 64 ____ 240 _______ (752) = 24

UnionWeatherWx**********____90 _ 22 _ 96 ____ 208 _______ (600) = 25

Quixotic.1********** _________ 52 _ 72 _ 57 ____ 181 _______ (586) =27

Carvers Gap**********_______ 94 _ 31 _ 47 ____ 172 _______ (556) =28 _________ 1 0 0

IntenseBlizzard2014**********_ 40 _ 28 _ 84 ____ 152 _______ (512) = 29

metalicwx366 **********______ 00 _ 72 _ 56 ____ 128 _______ (590) =26

EPluribusUnum********** _____00 _ 70 _ 22 _____ 92 _______ (442) =30

Uncle W **********__________ 26 _ 46 _ 18 _____ 90 _______ (130) =33

SACRUS**********__________ 04 _ 24 _ 48 _____ 76 _______ (392) =32

Weatherguy701**********_____00 _ 08 _ 30 _____ 38 _______ (399) =31

hockeyinc**********__________00 _ 16 _ 08 _____ 24 ________ (80) =34

 

(not entered in western)

 

Tenman Johnson __________________________________ (3888) =19

 

=======================================================

 

* to ********** have missed one to ten months

[Roger Smith]

_________The  Four Seasons Awards --

 

Final Rankings for Autumn and the 2014-15 Seasons _______

 

 

The autumn ranks below are now final and so are the annual standings in each category. The actual autumn totals appear to the right of the annual four-season points totals to give you the overview.

Autumn is of course SEP-OCT-NOV combined. And as a reminder, top score in each season gets 10 points, second is worth 7 and then counting down to 1 point for 8th as well as 9th and 10th places. Consensus and Normal play too, but they don't change lower ranks of actual forecasters.

 

FOUR SEASONS AWARDS WINNERS IN GREEN in each of three categories

 

 

FORECASTER (main contest) ___________ Win__Spr__Sum__Aut_____TOTAL ____ autumn total score (prov)

 

Midlo Snow Maker ______________________ 5 __ 10 ___ 0 ___ 4 _______19 ...........................1324

Isotherm ______________________________ 7 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 7 _______17 .......................... 1416

Mallow ______________________________ 10 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___ 1 _______17 .......................... 1274

Damage in Tolland _____________________ 1 ___ 5 ___ 1 ____6 _______13 .......................... 1372

..

Consensus ___________________________ 1 ___ 4 ___ 4 ___ 3 _______ 12 ........................... 1312

..

DonSutherland.1 _______________________ 0 ___ 3 ___ 3t___ 5 _______ 11 .......................... 1368

Tom _________________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___10___0 ________10 ...........................1132

wxallannj _____________________________ 0 ___ 7 ___ 3t___ 0 _______ 10 .......................... 1198

ksammut _____________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 10 ________10 .......................... 1453

wxdude64 ____________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 7 ___ 0 ________ 7 ............................. 983

Rjay _________________________________ - ___ 6 ___ 0 ___ 0 ________ 6 ........................... 1244

Tenman Johnson _______________________6 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ________ 6 ........................... 1034

hudsonvalley21 ________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 5 ___ 1 ________ 6 ........................... 1252

RodneyS _____________________________ 0 ___ 4 ___ 0 ___ 1 ________ 5 ........................... 1246

metalicwx366 __________________________4 ___ -- ___ -- ___ -- ________ 4 ........................... -- -- --

SD __________________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 0 ________ 4 ............................ 1012

Absolute Humidity ______________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ________ 4 ............................ -- -- --

Roger Smith ___________________________3 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ________ 4 ............................ 1244

Maxim _______________________________ -- ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3 ________ 3 ............................ 1320

Bkviking ______________________________1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ________ 3 ............................ 1271

blazess556 ____________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ________ 2 ............................ 1270

Stebo ________________________________ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ________1 ............................. 1230

Quixotic1 _____________________________ 1 ___ -- ___ -- ___ -- ________1 ............................ -- -- --

 

Normal _______________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ________ 1 .............................. 882

.. 

dmillz25 ______________________________ -- ___ -- ___ 0 ___ 0 ________ 0 .............................1030

..

..

.. 

(Western contest)

 

Isotherm ______________________________10 ___ 6 __10 ___10 _______36 ............................. 584

Midlo Snow Maker ______________________ 6 ___ 5 ___ 6 ___ 2 _______ 19 ............................. 512

Damage in Tolland ______________________ 5 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 7 _______17 ............................. 566

DonSutherland.1 ________________________6 ___ 0 ___ 5 ___ 5 _______16 .............................. 526

Mallow ________________________________4 ___ 0 ___ 7 ___ 1 _______12 .............................. 494

Stebo ________________________________ 0 ___10 ___ 0 ___ 0 _______10 .............................. 416

..

Consensus ____________________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 6 _______ 8 ................................ 556

..

blazess556 ____________________________ 0 ___ 7 ___ 0 ___ 0 ________7 ............................... 420

wxdude64 _____________________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ___ 0 ________7 ............................... 457

ksammut ______________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 6 ________6 ............................... 545

Roger Smith ___________________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ________5 ............................... 430

SD ___________________________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 4 ________5 ............................... 522

wxallannj ______________________________ 0 ___ 4 ___ 0 ___ 1 ________3 ............................... 509

Tom __________________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ________3 ............................... 444

Maxim ________________________________ -- ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3 _______ 3 ................................ 520

BKViking ______________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _______ 1 ................................ 509

Absolute Humidity _______________________ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ -- _______ 2 ................................ -- --

N. of Pike ______________________________2 ___ 0 ___ -- ___ -- _______ 2 ............................... -- --

Quixotic.1 _____________________________ 1 ___ -- ___ -- ___ -- _______ 1 ................................ -- --

hudsonvalley21 _________________________1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ________1 ............................... 431

RodneyS ______________________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ________1 ............................... 480

dmillz25 _______________________________-- ___ -- ___ 0 ___ 0 _______ 0 ................................ 406

..

Normal _______________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ________ 0 ............................... 436

..

..

 

(all nine stations -- four seasons award)

 

Isotherm ______________________________ 7 ___ 6 ___ 7 ___10________30 ............................. 2000

Mallow _______________________________10 ___ 0 ___10 __ 1 ________ 21............................. 1768

Midlo Snow Maker ______________________ 6 ___10 ___1 ___ 3 ________20............................. 1836

DonSutherland.1 _______________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 6t___ 5 ________ 16 ............................ 1894

Damage in Tolland ______________________3 ___ 3 ___ 2 ___ 6 ________ 14 ............................ 1938

..

Consensus ____________________________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 4 _________ 9 ........................... 1868

..

wxallannj ______________________________1 ___ 7 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ 8 ........................... 1707

ksammut ______________________________1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 7 _________ 8 ............................ 1998

Tom __________________________________0___ 0 ___ 6t___ 0 _________ 6 ............................ 1576

wxdude64 _____________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 0 _________ 5 ............................ 1440

Stebo ________________________________ 0 ___ 5 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ 5 ............................ 1646

Maxim ________________________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 4 _________ 4 .............................1840

Roger Smith ___________________________ 4___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ 4 ............................ 1674

blazess556 ____________________________ 0___ 4 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ 4 ............................ 1690

Bkviking ______________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 _________ 3 ............................ 1780

SD __________________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3 ___ 0 _________ 3 ............................ 1534

Rjay _________________________________ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 _________ 3..............................1713

RodneyS ______________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _________2............................. 1726

Quixotic.1 _____________________________ 2 ___ -- ___ -- ___ -- ________ 2 ............................ -- --

Absolute Humidity _______________________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ -- _________2 ............................ -- --

hudsonvalley21 ________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ 1............................. 1683

dmillz25 ______________________________ -- ___ -- ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ 0 ........................... 1436

 

Congrats to Isotherm for taking two of the three Four Seasons awards, Midlo Snow Maker snagged the award for the main contest and was 2nd in the west, third in the all-nine, and Mallow, Don Sutherland and Damage in Tolland were all generally better than consensus.

[Roger Smith]

Extreme forecast update for November 2015

 

The table of extreme forecasts is getting quite long and so if you want to review the cases between January and August, then check the table near the end of the August thread (post 39).

 

Four stations have qualified in November and three others were just out of scoring range. This brings the annual total to 63 out of 99. To qualify, a month must have either one forecast on the extreme side of the actual (then that is rated a win or loss depending on high score), or if two are more extreme, second most extreme must be high score or at least tied. ORD did not qualify as three forecasts were more extreme.

 

  

Month _____ City ___________ Anom ________ Extreme ___ 2nd ext ________ W-L decision

 

Sep 2015 __ DCA ____________ +3.9 ______ +4.1 (Damage) __ +3.8* _______ Win shared by 3

Sep 2015 __ NYC ____________ +6.4 ______ +4.2 RodneyS ___ +4.1 ________ Win RodneyS

Sep 2015 __ BOS ____________ +4.3 ______ +3.8 Roger _____ +3.8 (pen) ____Win Roger

Sep 2015 __ ORD ____________ +4.4 ______ +3.8 Maxim ____ +2.2 _________Win Maxim

Sep 2015 __ ATL _____________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 Normal ____ +1.0 (three) ___ Win see below

Sep 2015 __ DEN _____________+6.0 ______ +1.8 (Midlo) ____ +1.6 _________Win Midlo

Sep 2015 __ PHX _____________+1.5 ______ +1.7 Rjay _______+1.5 (two) ___ W for two; L Rjay

 

Oct 2015 __ DCA _____________--0.5 ______ --0.7 Tenman J __ --0.3 ksammut _ W shared TJ, ks

Oct 2015 __ BOS ______________ 0.0 ______ --0.3 Tom ______ --0.1 ksammut _ W ksammut**, L Tom

Oct 2015 __ ORD ____________ +2.2 ______ +3.0 Midlo ______ +2.2 Damage __ W Damage, L Midlo

Oct 2015 __ IAH _____________ +1.8 ______ +2.0 Damage ____+1.6 ksammut _ W shared Dam,ks

Oct 2015 __ DEN _____________ +5.6 ______ +3.3 Damage ___ +3.0 _________ W Damage

Oct 2015 __ PHX _____________ +2.7 ______ +3.0 Roger _____ +2.5 Damage___W Damage, L Roger

Oct 2015 __ SEA _____________ +4.4 ______ +5.5 Roger _____ +3.5 RodneyS __W RodS L Roger

 

Nov 2015 __ NYC ____________ +5.0 ______ +6.0 Midlo _____ +4.2 Don, Iso __ W Don, Iso; L Midlo

Nov 2015 __ ATL ____________ +3.7 _______ +3.9 Midlo _____ +3.5 Mallow ___ W Mallow and Midlo

Nov 2015 __ PHX ____________ --2.0 ______ --3.1 Midlo _____ --2.0 ksammut __ W ksammut, L Midlo

Nov 2015 __ SEA ____________ --1.6 ______--2.1 ksammut __ --2.0 Midlo ______ W Midlo; L ksammut

 

 

** Normal also gets a win for BOS

 

*for DCA, two scores tied with the extreme (Damage in Tolland), one was +3.8 with a 2 point penalty (ksammut) and the other was +3.7 by RodneyS ... all three share the win.

for ATL, three tied for extreme as all forecasts were positive, actual was zero, so that Normal won but three forecasters with +1.0 (Mallow, SD, dmillz25) share the win.

for PHX, Midlo and Damage tied for best forecast which was the second most extreme, thus Rjay gets a loss in the table below ...

 

Win-Loss records

 

 

Damage in Tolland ___11-0

Midlo Snow Maker ___ 11-4

Tenman Johnson _____ 8-0

ksammut ____________6-2

Mikehobbyst _________5-2

Rjay _______________ 5-2

RodneyS ____________5-2

Roger Smith _________ 5-5

Isotherm ____________4-0

Mallow _____________ 4-0

SD _________________2-0

Absolute Humidity ____ 2-0

Stebo ______________ 2-0

Maxim ______________2-0

dmillz25 ____________ 2-0

Normal _____________ 2-0

metalicwx366 ________ 1-0

blazess556 __________ 1-0

BKViking ____________1-0

Tom _______________ 1-1

Donsutherland.1 ______ 1-1

wxdude64 ___________1-2