November 2015 temp forecast contest (and bonus snowfall contest)

[Roger Smith]

Welcome to the monthly temperature forecast contest. This month, we have one of our occasional "bonus" contests dealing with seasonal snowfall. Last year, the challenge was to predict the first measurable snow at the nine stations that we use for our temperature forecast contest. But this winter, the challenge will shift to predicting the total seasonal amount at each location. Season has already started but I don't think any of the stations will have snow by November 1st, so consider the season to be now to end of April when we will validate the forecasts.

 

You can enter either of the contests, or both. Regulars in the temperature forecast contest will know the following, this is for new entrants ...

 

Predict the temperature anomaly in F deg (relative to 1981-2010 averages) for November at

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

(nearest tenth of a degree)

 

For the snowfall contest, predict the total snowfall in inches at these same nine locations. Scoring will be based on total errors in actual vs your predictions. Quite possibly PHX will go zero, and so may ATL and IAH, therefore it's basically a contest involving the other six locations but you can enter amounts for all nine, or a zero where applicable.

 

(nearest tenth of an inch)

 

----------------------------------- - - - - -

 

Enter by 06z Sunday 1st November, late entries will receive a 1% penalty per 2h late (to 18z on 2nd, then it increases to 1% per hour) ... no late penalties for the snowfall contest, just a cut-off by November 4th.

 

I am going to post predictions right away, use the next post as a template for your entries, if possible. Of course, change the values. You can edit your entries (as I may) up to the deadline, no need to note edits, I don't make up tables until after the deadline.

 

Once again, for new entrants ... our annual temperature contest runs Jan to Dec, and we also have seasonal sub-contests, which is why new entrants might want to start in now, get a feel for what we're doing, and enter December so you're into the four seasons part of the scoring.

 

Good luck !

[Roger Smith]

Here's my early forecasts, please use as a template and change values to what you want ...

 

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

+2.5 _ +2.7 _ +3.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ +3.5 _ +2.2 _ +4.3

 

11.7" _ 18.5" _ 35.5" __ 28.0" _ 0.3" _ 0.2" ___ 56.0" _ 0.0" _ 6.0"

[dmillz25]

Temps/Snow

DCA:+1.7/26.7"

NYC:+2.0/56.9"

BOS:+2.1/74.6"

ORD:+2.0/34.3"

ATL:+1.3/6.7"

IAH:+0.8/0.5"

DEN:-1.0/69.1"

PHX:-0.5/0.0"

SEA:+1.5/7.7"

[Tom]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

+2.4 _ +2.8 _ +2.9 ___ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +0.1 ___ -0.5 _ -0.8 _ -0.7

 

41.2" _ 52.8" _ 49.1" __ 31.2" _ 8.1" _ 0.9" ___ 64.9" _ 0.0" _ 5.6"

​

[Stebo]

DCA +2.3/37"

NYC +2.7/42"

BOS +3.2/47"

ORD +2.1/32"

ATL +2.2/5"

IAH -1.2/1.5"

DEN -2.1/52"

PHX -1.7/T

SEA -0.6/11"

[Rjay]

DCA: +3.0/40"

NYC: +3.0/55"

BOS: +2.5/65"

ORD: +2.0/20"

ATL: +1.5/2"

IAH: -0.5/T

DEN: 0.0/75"

PHX: -1.0/0.0"

SEA: +1.0/12"

[Maxim]

DCA: +2.5/19"
NYC: +3.0/25"
BOS: +2.5/35"
ORD: +3.5/29" 
ATL: +2.0/2.5"
IAH: +0.5/0.5" 
DEN: +1.5/60" 
PHX: -1.5/0.0" 
SEA: +1.0/7"

[ksammut]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+3.5__+4.1____+3.4_____+4.4____+2.0___+1.7______-1____-2____-2.1

 

14.5 __21_____42_______38______.01____0_______59_____0______4

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA: +3.1/ 8"

NYC: +2.5/16"
BOS: +2.0/22"
ORD: +3.5/28" 
ATL: +3.3/4"
IAH: +1.0/0.3"
DEN: +0.8/66" 
PHX: +0.9/0.1" 
SEA: +1.5/4"

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

+2.8 _ +2.9 _ +2.6 ___ +1.7 _ +2.2 _ +1.2 ___ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1/9

 

15.7" _ 22.4" _ 27.5" __ 32.0" _ 1.4" _ 0.0" ___ 48.0" _ 0.0" _ 7.8"

[bkviking]

Temps/Snow

DCA: +2.2/ 20.5"

NYC:+2.1/ 37.8"

BOS:+2.5/ 58.5"

ORD:+2.8/18.7"

ATL:+1.6/ 10"

IAH:+0.5/ 0.5"

DEN:-1.3/75.5"

PHX:-0.3 /0.4"

SEA:+0.5 /5.6"

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

1.5         1.0        1.0             1.0         0.5        0.0            -1.5       -1.0       -1.0

 

11"       20"         45"            35"         3"           1"           65"          1"          12"       

[WEATHER53]

Welcome to the monthly temperature forecast contest. This month, we have one of our occasional "bonus" contests dealing with seasonal snowfall. Last year, the challenge was to predict the first measurable snow at the nine stations that we use for our temperature forecast contest. But this winter, the challenge will shift to predicting the total seasonal amount at each location. Season has already started but I don't think any of the stations will have snow by November 1st, so consider the season to be now to end of April when we will validate the forecasts.

 

You can enter either of the contests, or both. Regulars in the temperature forecast contest will know the following, this is for new entrants ...

 

Predict the temperature anomaly in F deg (relative to 1981-2010 averages) for November at

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

(nearest tenth of a degree)

 

For the snowfall contest, predict the total snowfall in inches at these same nine locations. Scoring will be based on total errors in actual vs your predictions. Quite possibly PHX will go zero, and so may ATL and IAH, therefore it's basically a contest involving the other six locations but you can enter amounts for all nine, or a zero where applicable.

 

(nearest tenth of an inch)

 

----------------------------------- - - - - -

 

Enter by 06z Sunday 1st November, late entries will receive a 1% penalty per 2h late (to 18z on 2nd, then it increases to 1% per hour) ... no late penalties for the snowfall contest, just a cut-off by November 4th.

 

I am going to post predictions right away, use the next post as a template for your entries, if possible. Of course, change the values. You can edit your entries (as I may) up to the deadline, no need to note edits, I don't make up tables until after the deadline.

 

Once again, for new entrants ... our annual temperature contest runs Jan to Dec, and we also have seasonal sub-contests, which is why new entrants might want to start in now, get a feel for what we're doing, and enter December so you're into the four seasons part of the scoring.

 

Good luck !

DCA:+2.5  12"

NYC:+3.5   16"

BOS:+4.5  23"

ORD:-1.0  19"

ATL:+1.0  4"

IAH:+1.0  1"

DEN:56":

SEA:8"

Phoenix:1"

[Mallow]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+3.9 _ +3.9 __ +3.1 _____ +3.8 __ +3.5 _ +2.8 _____ +1.1 __ -1.7 __ +0.4

 

26.0" _ 30.0" _ 41.0" _____ 28.0" __ 4.8" _ 0.4" ______ 68.0" __ 0.0" __ 4.2"

[RodneyS]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+3.4 _ +3.2 __ +3.0 _____ +2.6 __ +1.6 _ +1.5 _____ -0.3 __ -0.1 __ +0.2

 

0.1" _ 10.0" _ 10.0" _____ 20.0" __ 0.0" _ 0.0" ______ 45.0" __ 0.0" __ 3.5"

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

+4.5 _ +4.2 _ +3.9 ___ +4.8 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___ +1.2 _ -0.7 _+0.8

 

25.0" _ 23.4" _ 36.5" __ 25.5" _ 3.9" _ 0.1" ___ 42.3" _ 0.0" _ 4.5"

[OHweather]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

+4.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 ___ +4.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.8 ___ 0.0 _ -1.0 _ +0.2

 

35.0" _ 37.0" _ 46.0" __ 31.0" _ 4.5" _ 0.0" ___ 65.0" _ 0.0" _ 4.0"

[Isotherm]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

+3.9 _ +4.2 _ +4.4 ___ +4.6 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 ___ +1.0 _ -0.8 _+0.0

 

32.2" _ 37.4" _ 43.6" __ 22.4" _ 3.5" _ 0.1" ___ 57.1" _ 0.0" _ 4.3"

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +2.0    22.0

NYC:  +1.5    22.7

BOS:  +1.4    30.8

ORD:  +0.5   23.6

ATL:  +1.1    11.2

IAH:  +0.4     02.1

DEN:  -1.1    67.3

PHX:  -0.5    0.0

SEA:  +0.3   08.4

[blazess556]

DCA: +2.5/17"
NYC: +3.1/23"
BOS: +2.2/33"
ORD: +3.4/27" 
ATL: +2.2/2.2"
IAH: +0.3/0.3" 
DEN: +1.3/56" 
PHX: -1.3/0.0" 
SEA: +1.2/6"

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA: +5.7 21"

NYC: +6.0 34"

BOS: +4.7 49"

ORD: +4.8 38"

ATL: +3.9 5.0"

IAH: +3.0 1.9"

DEN: +6.0 56"

PHX: -3.1 0.0"

SEA: -2.0 6.0

[H2Otown_WX]

DCA... ...NYC... ...BOS... ....ORD... ATL... IAH... ...DEN ...PHX... SEA

 

+3.3... ...+3.6... ...+2.8... ....+4.4... +2.5... +1.7.. ...-0.8... +1.2... -0.4

 

17.3"      28.4"      33.2"       43.1"   9.6"      3.3"     44.0"     0"      3.7"

[Roger Smith]

November 2015 forecasts

 

  

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Midlo Snow Maker _________+5.7 _ +6.0 _ +4.7 ___ +4.8 _ +3.9 _ +3.0 ___ +6.0 _ --3.1 _ --2.0

DonSutherland.1 __________ +4.5 _ +4.2 _ +3.9 ___ +4.8 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___ +1.2 _ --0.7 _ +0.8

OHweather _______________+4.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 ___ +4.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.8 ____ 0.0 _ --1.0 _ +0.2

Isotherm _________________ +3.9 _ +4.2 _ +4.4 ___ +4.6 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 ___ +1.0 _ --0.8 __ 0.0

Mallow __________________ +3.9 _ +3.9 _ +3.1 ___ +3.8 _ +3.5 _ +2.8 ___ +1.1 _ --1.7 _ +0.4

ksammut _________________+3.5 _ +4.1 _ +3.4 ___ +4.4 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 ___ --1.0 _ --2.0 _ --2.1

RodneyS ________________ +3.4 _ +3.2 _ +3.0 ___ +2.6 _ +1.6 _ +1.5 ___ --0.3 _ --0.1 _ +0.2

H2OTown_Wx ___ (-6%) ___ +3.3 _ +3.6 _ +2.8 ___ +4.4 _ +2.5 _ +1.7 ___ --0.8 _ +1.2 _ --0.4

hudsonvalley21 __ (-20%) ___+3.3 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 ___ +3.3 _ +1.8 _ +1.2 ___ +1.7 _ --0.2 _ +0.4

Damage in Tolland ________ +3.1 _ +2.5 _ +2.0 ___ +3.5 _ +3.3 _ +1.0 ___ +0.8 _ +0.9 _ +1.5

Rjay ____________________+3.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ --0.5 ____ 0.0 _ --1.0 _ +1.0 

 

Consensus ______________ +2.9 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 ___ +3.1 _ +2.0 _ +1.1 ____ 0.0 _ --0.8 _ +0.4

 

wxallannj ________________ +2.8 _ +2.9 _ +2.6 ___ +1.7 _ +2.2 _ +1.2 ___ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.9

Tenman Johnson _________ +2.5 _ +3.5 _ +4.5 ___ --1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0

blazess556 ______________ +2.5 _ +3.1 _ +2.2 ___ +3.4 _ +2.2 _ +0.3 ___ +1.3 _ --1.3 _ +1.2

Maxim ___________________+2.5 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 ___ +3.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.5 ___ +1.5 _ --1.5 _ +1.0
Roger Smith ______________+2.5 _ +2.7 _ +3.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ +3.5 _ +2.2 _ +4.3

Tom ____________________ +2.4 _ +2.8 _ +2.9 ___ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +0.1 ___ --0.5 _ --0.8 _ --0.7

Stebo ___________________+2.3 _ +2.7 _ +3.2 ___ +2.1 _ +2.2 _ --1.2 ___ --2.1 _ --1.7 _ --0.6

BKViking ________________ +2.2 _ +2.1 _ +2.5 ___ +2.8 _ +1.6 _ +0.5 ___ --1.3 _ --0.3 _ +0.5
wxdude64 _______________ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.4 ___ +0.5 _ +1.1 _ +0.4 ___ --1.1 _ --0.5 _ +0.3

dmillz25 _________________ +1.7 _ +2.0 _ +2.1 ___ +2.0 _ +1.3 _ +0.8 ___ --1.0 _ --0.5 _ +1.5

SD _____________________ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ --1.5 _ --1.0 _ --1.0
 

 

Seasonal snowfall forecasts 2015-16

 

Stebo ___________________37.0" _ 42.0" _ 47.0" __ 32.0" _ 5.0" _ 1.5" ___ 52.0" _ 0.0" _11.0"

 

Tom ____________________41.2" _ 52.8" _ 49.1" __ 31.2" _ 8.1" _ 0.9" ___ 64.9" _ 0.0" _ 5.6"

Rjay ____________________35.0" _ 47.0" _ 58.0" __ 20.0" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 70.0" _ 0.0" _10.0"

OHweather ______________ 35.0" _ 37.0" _ 46.0" __ 31.0" _ 4.5" _ 0.0" ___ 65.0" _ 0.0" _ 4.0"

Isotherm _________________32.2" _ 37.4" _ 43.6" __ 22.4" _ 3.5" _ 0.1" ___ 57.1" _ 0.0" _ 4.3"

dmillz25 _________________ 26.7" _ 56.9" _ 74.6" __ 34.3" _ 6.7" _ 0.5" ___ 69.1" _ 0.0" _ 7.7"
Mallow __________________ 26.0" _ 30.0" _ 41.0" __ 28.0" _ 4.8" _ 0.4" ___ 68.0" _ 0.0" _ 4.2"

DonSutherland.1 __________ 25.0" _ 23.4" _ 36.5" __ 25.5" _ 3.9" _ 0.1" ___ 42.3" _ 0.0" _ 4.5"

wxdude64 _______________ 22.0" _ 22.7" _ 30.8" __ 23.6" _11.2" _ 2.1" ___ 67.3" _ 0.0" _ 8.4"

hudsonvalley21____________21.1" _ 20.8" _ 31.1" __ 27.2" _ 1.9" _ 0.0" ___ 46.0" _ 0.0" _ 2.9"

Midlo Snow Maker _________21.0" _ 34.0" _ 49.0" __ 38.0" _ 5.0" _ 1.9" ___ 56.0" _ 0.0" _ 5.6"

..

Consensus ______________ 20.8"" _ 24.2" _ 38.8" __ 28.1" _ 4.0" _ 0.5" ___ 58.1" _ 0.0" _ 5.6" 
 ..

BKViking ________________ 20.5" _ 37.8" _ 58.5" __ 18.7" _10.0" _ 0.5" ___ 75.5" _ 0.4" _ 5.6"

Maxim __________________ 19.0" _ 25.0" _ 35.0" __ 29.0" _ 2.5" _ 0.5" ___ 60.0" _ 0.0" _ 7.0"

H2OTown_Wx ____________17.3" _ 28.4" _ 33.2" __ 43.1" _ 9.6" _ 3.3" ___ 44.0" _ 0.0" _ 3.7"

blazess556 ______________ 17.0" _ 23.0" _ 33.,0" __ 27.0" _ 2.2" _ 0.3" ___ 56.0" _ 0.0" _ 6.0"

wxallannj ________________ 15.7" _ 22.4" _ 27.5" __ 32.0" _ 1.4" _ 0.0" ___ 48.0" _ 0.0" _ 7.8"

..

1981-2010 Normals ________15.4" _ 25.8" _ 43.8" __ 36.3" _ 2.9" _ 0.1" ___ 53.8" _ 0.0" _ 6.8*

..

ksammut ________________ 14.5" _ 21.0" _ 42.0" __ 38.0" _ 0.1" _ 0.0" ___ 59.0" _ 0.0" _ 4.0"

Tenman Johnson _________ 12.0" _ 16.0" _ 23.0" __ 19.0" _ 4.0" _ 1.0" ___ 56.0" _ 1.0" _ 8.0"

Roger Smith _____________ 11.7" _ 18.5" _ 35.5" __ 28.0" _ 0.3" _ 0.2" ___ 56.0" _ 0.0" _ 6.0"

SD _____________________11.0" _ 20.0" _ 45.0" __ 35.0" _ 3.0" _ 1.0" ___ 65.0" _ 1.0" _12.0"

Damage in Tolland _________ 8.0" _ 16.0" _ 22.0" __ 28.0" _ 4.0" _ 0.3" ___ 66.0" _ 0.1" _ 4.0"

RodneyS _________________ 0.1" _ 10.0" _ 10.0" __ 20.0" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 45.0" _ 0.0" _ 3.5"

 

 

Consensus values are now shown ... PHX snowfall mean forecast is 0.2" ... you can still enter the snowfall contest or edit any snowfall forecasts to end of the 4th (if you edit, make a new post, thanks). Temperature forecasts are already "on the clock" but snowfall forecasts will not be penalized, the contest will close at 06z Nov 5th.

 

Thanks for entering and welcome back to OHweather and H20Town_Wx.

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

+3.9 _ +4.2 _ +4.4 ___ +4.6 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 ___ +1.0 _ -0.8 _+0.0

You missed the snowfall forecast

[H2Otown_WX]

 

 

 

Consensus values will be added when entries seem to be finished ... you can still enter the snowfall contest or edit any snowfall forecasts to end of the 4th (if you edit, make a new post, thanks). Temperature forecasts are already "on the clock" but snowfall forecasts will not be penalized, the contest will close at 06z Nov 5th.

 

Thanks for entering and welcome back to OHweather and H20Town_Wx.

 

 

Thanks Roger, good to be back!

[hudsonvalley21]

Oops  just a little late.

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

+3.3 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 ___ +3.3 _ +1.8 _ +1.2 ___ +1.7 _ -0.2 _+0.4

 

21.1" _ 20.8" _ 31.1" __ 27.2" _ 1.9" _ 0.0" ___ 46.0" _ 0.0" _ 2.9"

[Roger Smith]

Okay, so I have added consensus values to the temperature and seasonal snowfall contests, and I have found the 1981-2010 normal snowfall values.

 

Contest entrants take note, DCA (Reagan National Airport) normally gets less snow than IAD (Dulles) and NYC is of course in Central Park not at either airport, if you want to change any forecasts based on the information posted in the 1981-2010 normal values, you have until end of tomorrow (Wed 4th) to do that. New entrants are still welcome until that deadline too.

 

I had a look back in my own climate records, PHX rarely sees measurable snowfall, just the occasional trace amount, and the only measurable snow I could find there was 1.0" in January 1937.

[Rjay]

DCA: +3.0/35"

NYC: +3.0/47"

BOS: +2.5/58"

ORD: +2.0/20"

ATL: +1.5/1.5"

IAH: -0.5/T

DEN: 0.0/70"

PHX: -1.0/0.0"

SEA: +1.0/10"

[Isotherm]

Okay, so I have added consensus values to the temperature and seasonal snowfall contests, and I have found the 1981-2010 normal snowfall values.

 

Contest entrants take note, DCA (Reagan National Airport) normally gets less snow than IAD (Dulles) and NYC is of course in Central Park not at either airport, if you want to change any forecasts based on the information posted in the 1981-2010 normal values, you have until end of tomorrow (Wed 4th) to do that. New entrants are still welcome until that deadline too.

 

I had a look back in my own climate records, PHX rarely sees measurable snowfall, just the occasional trace amount, and the only measurable snow I could find there was 1.0" in January 1937.

 

Edited my above post to include snowfall contest.

[Roger Smith]

Okay, new and edited forecasts added to table, consensus shifts slightly (now the mean of 11th and 12th ranked).

 

I will accept new snowfall entries or edits up to 06z November 5th then we wait to see. Nice spread of forecasts anyway.