psv88 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Hit 30 last month but annuals still going strong. Grass is nice and green and even the marigolds are in full bloom. No freeze in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 We've maybe hit 40 here by the water in lower Manhattan, but that was back in October. I think our low overnight was around 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 00z RGEM is a solid 1-3" soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 00z RGEM is a solid 1-3" soaker Started a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Started a threadWhy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 Why? Because I felt like it? Lol na but just felt like it needed it's own thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Models bring the ridge back days 7-10 after a brief hiatus this weekend. It has pretty much dominated our weather pattern since May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 What a disgusting pattern that we are in. I am ready for the cold and wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Models bring the ridge back days 7-10 after a brief hiatus this weekend. It has pretty much dominated our weather pattern since May. test8.gif 500.gif I feel deja vu from 2012 with that thing stuck over AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Today's Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.073. That broke the daily record of +3.509 from 1978. It is also only the 8th November figure of +4.000 or above and the 6th highest November figure on record. The prior +4.000 or above values occurred on the following dates: November 2, 1978: +4.544 (November record) November 20, 1978: +4.009 November 15, 1994: +4.363 November 20, 1994: +4.177 November 21, 1994: +4.444 November 15, 2013: +4.469 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Today's Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.073. That broke the daily record of +3.509 from 1978. It is also only the 8th November figure of +4.000 or above and the 6th highest November figure on record. The prior +4.000 or above values occurred on the following dates: November 2, 1978: +4.544 (November record) November 20, 1978: +4.009 November 15, 1994: +4.363 November 20, 1994: +4.177 November 21, 1994: +4.444 November 15, 2013: +4.469 what was a promising ao forecast a few days ago has gotten muzzled again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Models bring the ridge back days 7-10 after a brief hiatus this weekend. It has pretty much dominated our weather pattern since May. test8.gif 500.gif Last February we were a little ice cube in a big tub of boiling water. We pulled a miricle. Now it's back to reality. I think December is going to be +7 or something crazy like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 what was a promising ao forecast a few days ago has gotten muzzled again... There we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Today's Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.073. That broke the daily record of +3.509 from 1978. It is also only the 8th November figure of +4.000 or above and the 6th highest November figure on record. The prior +4.000 or above values occurred on the following dates: November 2, 1978: +4.544 (November record) November 20, 1978: +4.009 November 15, 1994: +4.363 November 20, 1994: +4.177 November 21, 1994: +4.444 November 15, 2013: +4.469 It's interesting that the last -4.000 or lower AO reading was back in March 2013. Someone should do a paper on what caused the dominant Northern Hemisphere high latitude blocking to shift from the AO region to the EPO and PNA areas after March 2013. 2013 3 18 -4.147 2013 3 19 -5.193 2013 3 20 -5.688 2013 3 21 -5.399 2013 3 22 -5.240 2013 3 23 -4.855 2013 3 24 -4.601 2013 3 25 -4.299 2013 3 26 -4.021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 might have to do with the severely negative EPO. if there's strong blocking in that region, then maybe the AO and NAO are inversely related? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 What a disgusting pattern that we are in. I am ready for the cold and wintry weather. Here's what I think..I have witnessed 3 super nino's in my life 72-73.82-83 and 97-98..they were all warm and mostly snowless.I am prepared for that..if this winter is different I will be surprised..I think it's a take what you can get winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 might have to do with the severely negative EPO. if there's strong blocking in that region, then maybe the AO and NAO are inversely related? The EPO is currently positive atm, but I see your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Why do I feel this is going to be one of those winters where the cold and snow or blocking is always 10+ days away and never comes. Also with that ridge another 70F+ reading wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Last February we were a little ice cube in a big tub of boiling water. We pulled a miricle. Now it's back to reality. I think December is going to be +7 or something crazy like that Its pretty unlikely this pattern is going to continue that long. Seeing things this putrid now means some change is coming in 4-6 weeks probably...it may not be extreme cold but it probably will be a colder pattern than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Why do I feel this is going to be one of those winters where the cold and snow or blocking is always 10+ days away and never comes. Also with that ridge another 70F+ reading wouldn't surprise me. Eh. 2011-2012 was understandable because we were about to start a solar maximum and a monster polar vortex was sitting over Alaska. This time it's nearly the opposite. It may seem like that at first, but we can break from this horrid pattern with a good SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Its pretty unlikely this pattern is going to continue that long. Seeing things this putrid now means some change is coming in 4-6 weeks probably...it may not be extreme cold but it probably will be a colder pattern than this.I'm a fan the backloaded winter idea. I think we end up with at least some decent cold and snow. I also think it's a painfull road to get there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 what was a promising ao forecast a few days ago has gotten muzzled again... I agree. There had been two clusters of ensemble members: one stayed positive and the other dropped negative to strongly negative. The former seems to have become more likely on the guidance. It will be interesting to see how this plays out and, much more importantly, whether blocking develops as we move toward or into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 It's interesting that the last -4.000 or lower AO reading was back in March 2013. Someone should do a paper on what caused the dominant Northern Hemisphere high latitude blocking to shift from the AO region to the EPO and PNA areas after March 2013. 2013 3 18 -4.147 2013 3 19 -5.193 2013 3 20 -5.688 2013 3 21 -5.399 2013 3 22 -5.240 2013 3 23 -4.855 2013 3 24 -4.601 2013 3 25 -4.299 2013 3 26 -4.021 I agree. I believe that would make an excellent paper. It might also provide some new insight into whether changes related to Arctic sea ice, among other possible variables, are playing a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I agree. I believe that would make an excellent paper. It might also provide some new insight into whether changes related to Arctic sea ice, among other possible variables, are playing a role. I would really like to know how the CCSM4 initialized in January 2013 was able to successfully forecast the shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I'm a fan the backloaded winter idea. I think we end up with at least some decent cold and snow. I also think it's a painfull road to get there You can see it in the distribution of the 12 inch of greater snowfalls in NYC. All the storms from 12/5-1/16 are either La Nina or neutral with the exception of 1964. So El Ninos require patience. 25.8...12/26, 1947..............neutral 20.2...1/7-1/8, 1996............La Nina 20.0..12/26-12/27 2010......La Nina 18.0...12/26, 1872..............La Nina 16.0...12/19-12/20, 1948....neutral 15.2....12/11-12/12, 1960...neutral 14.0...12/5-12/7, 2003........neutral 13.0...1/15-1/16 1879.........La Nina 12.7...12/15, 1916..............La Nina 12.5...1/12-1/13, 1964........El Nino 12.0...12/30, 2000..............La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 You can see it in the distribution of the 12 inch of greater snowfalls in NYC. All the storms from 12/5-1/16 are either La Nina or neutral. So El Ninos require patience. 25.8...12/26, 1947..............neutral 20.2...1/7-1/8, 1996............La Nina 20.0..12/26-12/27 2010......La Nina 18.0...12/26, 1872..............La Nina 16.0...12/19-12/20, 1948....neutral 15.2....12/11-12/12, 1960...neutral 14.0...12/5-12/7, 2003........neutral 13.0...1/15-1/16 1879.........La Nina 12.7...12/15, 1916..............La Nina 12.5..12/13, 1964...............La Nina 12.0...12/30, 2000..............La Nina 1963-64 was a weak el nino with a white Christmas...the coldest part of that winter was pre Christmas...the 1948 storm was 19.6" in Battery Park... http://fultonhistory.com/Newspaper%205/Brooklyn%20NY%20Daily%20Eagle/Brooklyn%20NY%20Daily%20Eagle%201948%20Grayscale/Brooklyn%20NY%20Daily%20Eagle%201948%20Grayscale%20-%206152.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 1963-64 was a weak el nino with a white Christmas...the coldest part of that winter was pre Christmas...the 1948 storm was 19.6" in Battery Park... http://fultonhistory.com/Newspaper%205/Brooklyn%20NY%20Daily%20Eagle/Brooklyn%20NY%20Daily%20Eagle%201948%20Grayscale/Brooklyn%20NY%20Daily%20Eagle%201948%20Grayscale%20-%206152.pdf Yeah, 6-11 inch storms seems to be the best that NYC has done in most El Nino years from 12/1- 1/15 outside January 1964. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 You can see it in the distribution of the 12 inch of greater snowfalls in NYC. All the storms from 12/5-1/16 are either La Nina or neutral with the exception of 1964. So El Ninos require patience. 25.8...12/26, 1947..............neutral 20.2...1/7-1/8, 1996............La Nina 20.0..12/26-12/27 2010......La Nina 18.0...12/26, 1872..............La Nina 16.0...12/19-12/20, 1948....neutral 15.2....12/11-12/12, 1960...neutral 14.0...12/5-12/7, 2003........neutral 13.0...1/15-1/16 1879.........La Nina 12.7...12/15, 1916..............La Nina 12.5...1/12-1/13, 1964........El Nino 12.0...12/30, 2000..............La Nina What about December 2009? Or did NYC not surpass 12" in that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Sure looks like our current pattern shares some similarity to the December +ENSO MJO phase 4 composite doesn't it? 12z EURO HR00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 What about December 2009? Or did NYC not surpass 12" in that storm? The heaviest in the December storm 2009 was out across Long Island and NYC got 10.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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