SACRUS Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 INteresting that 93 had the latest 80 in NYC in Nov (11/15) and subsequent deep freeze in Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 We are on track for the 9th El Nino November since 1900 that NYC finishes at or above 50 degrees. It's no surprise that so many of the warmest Novembers in NYC were El Nino years. 1902...51.6 1941...50.0 1963...50.4 1979...52.5 1982...50.4 1994...52.0 2006...51.9 2009...51.2 2015...? A warm November doesn't say much about winter though. Snow totals in Central Park for those years: 1902-3...28.7" (14.4" in Dec.) 1941-2...29.5" (0.3" in Dec.) 1963-4...44.7" (11.4" in Dec.) 1979-80...12.8" (3.5" in Dec.) 1982-3...27.2" (3" in Dec.) 1994-5...11.8" (Trace in Dec.) 2006-7...12.4" (0" in Dec) 2009-10...51.4" (12.4" in Dec.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 A warm November doesn't say much about winter though. Snow totals in Central Park for those years: 1902-3...28.7" (14.4" in Dec.) 1941-2...29.5" (0.3" in Dec.) 1963-4...44.7" (11.4" in Dec.) 1979-80...12.8" (3.5" in Dec.) 1982-3...27.2" (3" in Dec.) 1994-5...11.8" (Trace in Dec.) 2006-7...12.4" (0" in Dec) 2009-10...51.4" (12.4" in Dec.) Yeah, there really isn't any correlation to JFM when the bulk of snow falls during the classic back-loaded El Nino winter. But it sometimes can be a different story in a La Nina winter when early warmth can be a negative sign like we saw in November 2011 and 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 With overcast skies during the afternoon, there was a distinct November atmosphere. Yet, with readings in the 60s, it felt more like late September or early October. Three photos from the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Record highs set today of 72 at LaGuardia and 70 at JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 The AO is partying like it's 1929 and is about to CRASH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 The AO is partying like it's 1929 and is about to CRASH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Stormier El Nino pattern emerging this week as we see a coastal Tuesday followed by a cutter on Thursday. Temps will still average a bit above normal this week until the cutter drags down some colder temps for a more fall-like pattern next weekend. that coastal crept up on the models. the nino stj is alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 A Freeze Warning is in effect for tonight across Eastern Suffolk County on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Today still looks to hit 60 in some places but will be the coolest day relative to average for the first half of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 The 12z ECMWF was drier and so was the 18z GFS compared to the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Looks like a stormy pattern developing at the end of thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Westhampton down to 36 before 7 pm. Hard freeze coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 700 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure area located about 60 miles east-northeast of Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas continue to show signs of organization. Recent satellite images indicate that the circulation has become better defined since this morning, and only a slight increase in organization of the system would result in the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm tonight or Monday. Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of the low since a Tropical Storm Warning may be required for a portion of the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight or early Monday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over portions of the Bahamas during the next day or so. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Monday morning. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Down to 43. Chilly night incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Westhampton down to 36 before 7 pm. Hard freeze coming. KFOX was 33 last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 KFOX was 33 last hour. At 31 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Monticello down to 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 MMU down to 32. Widespread freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Currently sitting at a balmy 28.. Wont be the coldest night of the season but still quite chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Newark down to 39 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Upton cut the predicted rainfall totals for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Newark low of 37. 43 at KNYC. 46 LGA. 39 JFK. 26 Westhampton. 34 TEB. 32 TTN. 27 Monticello. 31 ACY. 34 ISP. 35 HPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 LR thoughts on second half of Nov?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 29F this morning. Hard frost everywhere. 5th freeze of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Kate was born. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Kate was born. Congrats! i hope everyone is healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Kate was born. Less than a week before the 30th anniversary of Kate '85, the latest landfalling US hurricane in HURDAT. This system should prove a little less inspiring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Today's Arctic Oscillation (AO) reading was +3.808. That broke the daily mark of +3.256, which was set in 1978. Today's figure is also the 12th highest on record for November. The record is +4.544, which was established on November 2, 1978. The GFS ensembles indicate that the AO will peak in the next day or two and then decline. There are a cluster of ensemble members that take it negative to between -3.000 and -1.000 by the end of the 15-day period. A period of blocking during the second half of November has occurred in the past with a number of El Niño events. Examples include the November 21-28, 1982 and November 21-December 5, 1997 periods. If blocking develops, a major issue will concern whether it will be sustained. Resolution of that question could provide insight into the predominant state of the AO during the winter. In the 1982 case, the blocking faded. In 1997, it predominated, but was overwhelmed by the East-based El Niño event. This time around, one is not dealing with an East-based El Niño (the new weekly data reinforces the basin-wide nature of the current event). A block also developed on November 29, 2009 and winter 2009-10 was historically blocky. In short, it's still too soon to be sure about the predominant state of the AO for the winter. No good measure exists for reliably predicting the AO from this far out, especially as the Snow Advance Index (SAI) has fared poorly the past two winters and the relationship between Eurasian snow trends in October and the AO may be weaker than first thought. In the larger context, the AO is one factor, but not the only one that will shape the winter outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 FOK is up 32 degrees since the morning. Warmer than all area stations at 58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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