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Which November will show up? November 2015 obs/discussion


dmillz25

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And then the warmth returned for a time before the remainder of December was seasonably cold to colder than normal. It will be interesting to see if the Arctic Oscillation plunges in the long-range and if the blocking produces a more wintry end to November.

January had another 8.8" storm and some snow fell in February and March...There were a few torches between cold periods...

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Models indicating generally above normal temps until further notice.

There is a new week 3-4 discussion form the CPC based on the

Euro weeklies, JMA weeklies , and CFS weeklies.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

Hmm I am sure they are factoring in the next 10 days because after that we may see some normal and below normal temps. It has been so above normal lately that it would take a lot to bring back to normal.

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Models indicating generally above normal temps until further notice.

There is a new week 3-4 discussion form the CPC based on the

Euro weeklies, JMA weeklies , and CFS weeklies.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

If we use, say the CFS, not a single month will be below normal thru next June, making it a total of 14 straight months above normal here (calling June of this year neutral)   The winter is progged to be 4-5F above normal and wet.

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Some transient below normal days show up in the Euro weeklies, but the ridge stays near the Northeast and SE Canada

for the run. I guess we can wait until next week to see if there is some change after weeks 1+2. It's a pretty typical

late fall mild El Nino pattern that the weeklies are showing.

GFS was showing colder after day 10 or so. I am really hoping it is right. It's been so long in this pattern that maybe it's bound to break soon.
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If NYC's temperature remained at or above 70° after midnight, that would mark 5 consecutive such high temperatures and would establish a new record for most consecutive days with 70° readings in November.

It's confirmed as the 06Z observation has a six-hour minimum temperature of 70 degrees.

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It's confirmed as the 06Z observation has a six-hour minimum temperature of 70 degrees.

It was and the temperature peaked at 72°. Yesterday's minimum temperature of 66° broke the daily record for highest minimum temperature of 64°, which was set in 1938. It was also the highest minimum temperature this late in the season.

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We are on track for the 9th El Nino November since 1900 that NYC finishes at or above 50 degrees.

It's no surprise that so many of the warmest Novembers in NYC were El Nino years.

 

1902...51.6

1941...50.0

1963...50.4

1979...52.5

1982...50.4

1994...52.0

2006...51.9

2009...51.2

2015...?

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