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Which November will show up? November 2015 obs/discussion


dmillz25

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At 2 pm, the temperature in New York City was 71°. That is the 3rd 70° or warmer high temperature this November. Since 1876, Central Park has seen only 12 prior cases during which there were 3 or more 70° high temperatures in November. Those prior cases were:

 

1927 (5), 1931 (5), 1938 (5), 1950 (3), 1953 (7), 1961 (3), 1974 (3), 1975 (6), 1979 (3), 1982 (4), 1990 (4), and 1994 (6).

 

Such cases were often followed by an above average frequency of 50° or warmer high temperatures in December, especially when El Niño conditions were present. The below chart shows the number of days with such high temperatures in December.

 

Dec_Temps11052015.jpg

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At 2 pm, the temperature in New York City was 71°. That is the 3rd 70° or warmer high temperature this November. Since 1876, Central Park has seen only 12 prior cases during which there were 3 or more 70° high temperatures in November. Those prior cases were:

 

1927 (5), 1931 (5), 1938 (5), 1950 (3), 1953 (7), 1961 (3), 1974 (3), 1975 (6), 1979 (3), 1982 (4), 1990 (4), and 1994 (6).

 

Such cases were often followed by an above average frequency of 50° or warmer high temperatures in December, especially when El Niño conditions were present. The below chart shows the number of days with such high temperatures in December.

 

Dec_Temps11052015.jpg

a lot of putrid years on the list...it's interesting that 1953 is on the list with seven 70 degree days because it had a snowstorm/rain and gale on the 6th...3.7" at Battery Park before it changed to rain...1938 had an amazing turn-a-round with 12.8" of snow the last week of the month...if there is no blocking in December I would think we will get many 50+ days...hopefully none between the 22nd and 31st...

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Already 67 at 6 am in NYC. So NYC is on track to beat the record high high of 74.

Today will probably be the warmest day of the month as NYC will add to the +9.3

departure through 11/5. Will  be one of the warmest first weeks of November 

on record.

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Already 67 at 6 am in NYC. So NYC is on track to beat the record high high of 74.

Today will probably be the warmest day of the month as NYC will add to the +9.3

departure through 11/5. Will  be one of the warmest first weeks of November 

on record.

Accuweather has just 3 or 4 below normal days for the rest of the month and no high lower than 50 for the whole month, I think.   Did this ever happen before?

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