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Which November will show up? November 2015 obs/discussion


dmillz25

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NYC currently in the lead for warmest fall and November through the 27th following the

record warmest September. This is after the 2nd warmest May and 3rd warmest August.

A pretty amazing temperature turnaround following the very cold JFM highlighted

by the 3rd coldest February.

 

9/1-11/27/15......62.0......record....61.8....1931

September 15....74.5......new record 

November 15 ....53.5......record....52.7....2001

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For the second consecutive day, the Arctic Oscillation is at or above +3. A very strong polar vortex at this time of year can be difficult to erode. As a result, the AO will likely be predominantly positive through at least the first half of December. There is also a growing prospect that it could be predominantly positive for the winter, even if sustained blocking develops in January or February. As the AO can't really be forecast with much accuracy beyond a few weeks, it's too soon to be sure if the winter will feature something along the lines of 1965-66, 2006-07, or 1972-73 (worst case) in terms of the AO. However, with growing prospects of a predominantly positive AO, the state of the Pacific will again be crucial. So far, the strong PDO+ regime (which favors a PNA+) has continued to hold and it is likely to be sustained through the winter.

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NYC currently in the lead for warmest fall and November through the 27th following the

record warmest September. This is after the 2nd warmest May and 3rd warmest August.

A pretty amazing temperature turnaround following the very cold JFM highlighted

by the 3rd coldest February.

 

9/1-11/27/15......62.0......record....61.8....1931

September 15....74.5......new record 

November 15 ....53.5......record....52.7....2001

 

Impressive even considering the somewhat 'normal' stretch during October.  Sep/Nov dual of warmth was incredible dd 

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Next 15 days features an 850mb T pattern which is almost always neutral or above normal here, except Dec. 2.    500mb heights are basically above normal for period.

First 5 days of December already figure to be +5degs., not quite as spectacular as the first week of Nov.

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