Which November will show up? November 2015 obs/discussion

[Morris]

we might see 80 friday

 

That would be a crazy +23 or so departure.

[uncle W]

November
1971-2000 normals...Temperature...47.1...Precipitation...4.36"...Snowfall...0.4"
Average temperature...
decade....Ave.t.....High.....low....ave.max/min...max...min...rainfall...snowfall...
1870's.....42.2.....45.5.....37.0...........................76.......7.....3.66".....0.9"
1880's.....43.2.....45.5.....38.7.....67.3.....21.2.....71.....13.....3.54".....1.8"
1890's.....45.1.....49.9.....41.5.....66.7.....24.1.....72.....14.....3.76".....3.3"
1900's.....45.7.....51.6.....39.7.....65.8.....26.6.....74.....19.....1.91".....0.3"
1910's.....45.0.....47.8.....41.6.....69.5.....26.7.....76.....19.....2.90".....0.2"
1920's.....45.6.....49.2.....43.9.....70.0.....24.1.....76.....12.....2.65".....0.1"
1930's.....46.2.....51.9.....41.8.....70.4.....21.4.....78.....12.....3.05".....2.2"
1940's.....47.5.....52.4.....44.2.....70.4.....27.5.....74.....23.....3.59".....0.6"
1950's.....47.1.....49.7.....43.5.....70.5.....24.5.....84.....16.....3.80".....0.5"
1960's.....47.3.....50.4.....42.5.....69.9.....28.7.....78.....20.....3.73".....0.3"
1970's.....47.6.....52.5.....41.7.....71.5.....25.7.....81.....17.....4.91".....0.3"
1980's.....47.7.....50.4.....44.6.....72.4.....26.9.....79.....18.....4.97".....0.6"
1990's.....47.6.....52.0.....43.0.....72.0.....27.7.....80.....23.....3.41".....0.3"
2000's.....48.6.....52.7.....45.3.....70.0.....28.0.....79.....22.....3.77".....trace

2010's.....46.8.....51.9.....43.9.....68.0.....29.2.....74.....22.....2.93".....1.0"
1870-
2009.......46.2............................69.7.....25.6.......................3.55".....0.8"
1980-
2009.......48.0............................71.5.....27.5.......................4.05".....0.3"
Warmest Novembers...
52.7 in 2001
52.5 in 1979
52.4 in 1948
52.3 in 1975
51.9 in 2011
51.9 in 2006
51.9 in 1994
51.9 in 1931
51.5 in 1902
51.1 in 2009
50.8 in 1999
Coldest...
37.0 in 1873
38.8 in 1871
38.9 in 1880
39.0 in 1882
39.3 in 1875
39.7 in 1901
40.3 in 1869
wettest...
12.41" in 1972
12.26" in 1977
10.00" in 1889
8.90" in 1988
8.24" in 1963
8.09" in 1985
7.38" in 1932
Driest...
0.34" in 1976
0.60" in 1931
0.71" in 1908
0.71" in 1890
0.86" in 1917
0.90" in 1933
Highest Temperatures...
84 11/01/1950
83 11/02/1950
81 11/01/1974
80 11/15/1993
79 11/02/1982
79 11/03/2003
78 11/07/1938
78 11/05/1961
78 11/04/1975
78 11/03/1990
Coldest temperatures...
_7 11/30/1875
11 11/30/1872
12 11/27/1932
12 11/30/1929
13 11/22/1880
14 11/23/1880
14 11/24/1880
14 11/29/1875
Lowest monthly max...
60 in 1878
60 in 1893
60 in 1901
60 in 1904
61 in 1976
61 in 1947
61 in 1907
61 in 1884
Highest monthly min...
36 in 2011
36 in 1998
35 in 2006
35 in 2009
34 in 1902
34 in 1963
34 in 1975
34 in 2001
34 in 2010
33 in 1907
33 in 1948
33 in 1985
Greatest monthly snowfall...
19.0" in 1898
14.0" in 1882
12.8" in 1938
_6.3" in 1892
_5.0" in 1896
Biggest snowfalls...
10.0" 11/26-27/1898
9.5" 11/29/30/1882 est...
8.8" 11/24-25/1938
6.0" 11/30/1898
5.0" 11/29-30/1896
4.7" 11/07-08/2012
4.7" 11/22-23/1989
4.0" 11/29-30/1892
4.0" 11/26-27/1938
3.7" 11/26/1882 est...
3.7" 11/29-30/1945
3.0" 11/24/1898
3.0" 11/30/1967
2.9" 11/30/1995

[Morris]

November

1971-2000 normals...Temperature...47.1...Precipitation...4.36"...Snowfall...0.4"

Average temperature...

decade....Ave.t.....High.....low....ave.max/min...max...min...rainfall...snowfall...

1870's.....42.2.....45.5.....37.0...........................76.......7.....3.66".....0.9"

1880's.....43.2.....45.5.....38.7.....67.3.....21.2.....71.....13.....3.54".....1.8"

1890's.....45.1.....49.9.....41.5.....66.7.....24.1.....72.....14.....3.76".....3.3"

1900's.....45.7.....51.6.....39.7.....65.8.....26.6.....74.....19.....1.91".....0.3"

1910's.....45.0.....47.8.....41.6.....69.5.....26.7.....76.....19.....2.90".....0.2"

1920's.....45.6.....49.2.....43.9.....70.0.....24.1.....76.....12.....2.65".....0.1"

1930's.....46.2.....51.9.....41.8.....70.4.....21.4.....78.....12.....3.05".....2.2"

1940's.....47.5.....52.4.....44.2.....70.4.....27.5.....74.....23.....3.59".....0.6"

1950's.....47.1.....49.7.....43.5.....70.5.....24.5.....84.....16.....3.80".....0.5"

1960's.....47.3.....50.4.....42.5.....69.9.....28.7.....78.....20.....3.73".....0.3"

1970's.....47.6.....52.5.....41.7.....71.5.....25.7.....81.....17.....4.91".....0.3"

1980's.....47.7.....50.4.....44.6.....72.4.....26.9.....79.....18.....4.97".....0.6"

1990's.....47.6.....52.0.....43.0.....72.0.....27.7.....80.....23.....3.41".....0.3"

2000's.....48.6.....52.7.....45.3.....70.0.....28.0.....79.....22.....3.77".....trace

2010's.....46.8.....51.9.....43.9.....68.0.....29.2.....74.....22.....2.93".....1.0"

1870-

2009.......46.2............................69.7.....25.6.......................3.55".....0.8"

1980-

2009.......48.0............................71.5.....27.5.......................4.05".....0.3"

Warmest Novembers...

52.7 in 2001

52.5 in 1979

52.4 in 1948

52.3 in 1975

51.9 in 2011

51.9 in 2006

51.9 in 1994

51.9 in 1931

51.5 in 1902

51.1 in 2009

50.8 in 1999

Coldest...

37.0 in 1873

38.8 in 1871

38.9 in 1880

39.0 in 1882

39.3 in 1875

39.7 in 1901

40.3 in 1869

wettest...

12.41" in 1972

12.26" in 1977

10.00" in 1889

8.90" in 1988

8.24" in 1963

8.09" in 1985

7.38" in 1932

Driest...

0.34" in 1976

0.60" in 1931

0.71" in 1908

0.71" in 1890

0.86" in 1917

0.90" in 1933

Highest Temperatures...

84 11/01/1950

83 11/02/1950

81 11/01/1974

80 11/15/1993

79 11/02/1982

79 11/03/2003

78 11/07/1938

78 11/05/1961

78 11/04/1975

78 11/03/1990

Coldest temperatures...

_7 11/30/1875

11 11/30/1872

12 11/27/1932

12 11/30/1929

13 11/22/1880

14 11/23/1880

14 11/24/1880

14 11/29/1875

Lowest monthly max...

60 in 1878

60 in 1893

60 in 1901

60 in 1904

61 in 1976

61 in 1947

61 in 1907

61 in 1884

Highest monthly min...

36 in 2011

36 in 1998

35 in 2006

35 in 2009

34 in 1902

34 in 1963

34 in 1975

34 in 2001

34 in 2010

33 in 1907

33 in 1948

33 in 1985

Greatest monthly snowfall...

19.0" in 1898

14.0" in 1882

12.8" in 1938

_6.3" in 1892

_5.0" in 1896

Biggest snowfalls...

10.0" 11/26-27/1898

9.5" 11/29/30/1882 est...

8.8" 11/24-25/1938

6.0" 11/30/1898

5.0" 11/29-30/1896

4.7" 11/07-08/2012

4.7" 11/22-23/1989

4.0" 11/29-30/1892

4.0" 11/26-27/1938

3.7" 11/26/1882 est...

3.7" 11/29-30/1945

3.0" 11/24/1898

3.0" 11/30/1967

2.9" 11/30/1995

 

 

Thank you!

[AvantHiatus]

The average daily mins are in the 40s. Most of the records that fall will probably be in this area. Albeit 3-5 days with record highs is definitely likely.

 

The overall decadal trend says November is the new October this year and possibly the rest of the decade. We had a brief respite from 2010-2014. 46.8 vs 48.6 of the 2000s.

[BxEngine]

Am i missing something? Daily avg lows dont drop into the 20s until further into December.

[AvantHiatus]

Am i missing something? Daily avg lows dont drop into the 20s until further into December.

Fixed my post. The way the data is presented is somewhat messy.

 

 

The average daily mins are in the 40s. Most of the records that fall (record warm lows) will probably be in this area. Albeit 2-4 days with record highs is definitely likely.

 

The overall decadal trend says November is the new October this year and possibly the rest of the decade. We had a brief respite from 2010-2014. 46.8 vs 48.6 of the 2000s.

 

Courtesy of uncle W.

 

 

November

1971-2000 normals...Temperature...47.1...Precipitation...4.36"...Snowfall...0.4"

Average temperature...

decade....Ave.t.....High.....low....ave.max/min...max...min...rainfall...snowfall...

1870's.....42.2.....45.5.....37.0...........................76.......7.....3.66".....0.9"

1880's.....43.2.....45.5.....38.7.....67.3.....21.2.....71.....13.....3.54".....1.8"

1890's.....45.1.....49.9.....41.5.....66.7.....24.1.....72.....14.....3.76".....3.3"

1900's.....45.7.....51.6.....39.7.....65.8.....26.6.....74.....19.....1.91".....0.3"

1910's.....45.0.....47.8.....41.6.....69.5.....26.7.....76.....19.....2.90".....0.2"

1920's.....45.6.....49.2.....43.9.....70.0.....24.1.....76.....12.....2.65".....0.1"

1930's.....46.2.....51.9.....41.8.....70.4.....21.4.....78.....12.....3.05".....2.2"

1940's.....47.5.....52.4.....44.2.....70.4.....27.5.....74.....23.....3.59".....0.6"

1950's.....47.1.....49.7.....43.5.....70.5.....24.5.....84.....16.....3.80".....0.5"

1960's.....47.3.....50.4.....42.5.....69.9.....28.7.....78.....20.....3.73".....0.3"

1970's.....47.6.....52.5.....41.7.....71.5.....25.7.....81.....17.....4.91".....0.3"

1980's.....47.7.....50.4.....44.6.....72.4.....26.9.....79.....18.....4.97".....0.6"

1990's.....47.6.....52.0.....43.0.....72.0.....27.7.....80.....23.....3.41".....0.3"

2000's.....48.6.....52.7.....45.3.....70.0.....28.0.....79.....22.....3.77".....trace

2010's.....46.8.....51.9.....43.9.....68.0.....29.2.....74.....22.....2.93".....1.0"

1870-

2009.......46.2............................69.7.....25.6.......................3.55".....0.8"

1980-

2009.......48.0............................71.5.....27.5.......................4.05".....0.3"

Warmest Novembers...

52.7 in 2001

52.5 in 1979

52.4 in 1948

52.3 in 1975

51.9 in 2011

51.9 in 2006

51.9 in 1994

51.9 in 1931

51.5 in 1902

51.1 in 2009

50.8 in 1999

Coldest...

37.0 in 1873

38.8 in 1871

38.9 in 1880

39.0 in 1882

39.3 in 1875

39.7 in 1901

40.3 in 1869

wettest...

12.41" in 1972

12.26" in 1977

10.00" in 1889

8.90" in 1988

8.24" in 1963

8.09" in 1985

7.38" in 1932

Driest...

0.34" in 1976

0.60" in 1931

0.71" in 1908

0.71" in 1890

0.86" in 1917

0.90" in 1933

Highest Temperatures...

84 11/01/1950

83 11/02/1950

81 11/01/1974

80 11/15/1993

79 11/02/1982

79 11/03/2003

78 11/07/1938

78 11/05/1961

78 11/04/1975

78 11/03/1990

Coldest temperatures...

_7 11/30/1875

11 11/30/1872

12 11/27/1932

12 11/30/1929

13 11/22/1880

14 11/23/1880

14 11/24/1880

14 11/29/1875

Lowest monthly max...

60 in 1878

60 in 1893

60 in 1901

60 in 1904

61 in 1976

61 in 1947

61 in 1907

61 in 1884

Highest monthly min...

36 in 2011

36 in 1998

35 in 2006

35 in 2009

34 in 1902

34 in 1963

34 in 1975

34 in 2001

34 in 2010

33 in 1907

33 in 1948

33 in 1985

Greatest monthly snowfall...

19.0" in 1898

14.0" in 1882

12.8" in 1938

_6.3" in 1892

_5.0" in 1896

Biggest snowfalls...

10.0" 11/26-27/1898

9.5" 11/29/30/1882 est...

8.8" 11/24-25/1938

6.0" 11/30/1898

5.0" 11/29-30/1896

4.7" 11/07-08/2012

4.7" 11/22-23/1989

4.0" 11/29-30/1892

4.0" 11/26-27/1938

3.7" 11/26/1882 est...

3.7" 11/29-30/1945

3.0" 11/24/1898

3.0" 11/30/1967

2.9" 11/30/1995

[KEITH L.I]

Accuweather still showing just 7 days in Nov. will be below normal.   If you ask me, the first 3 weeks of Dec. will have even a worse ratio.  Look at that experimental output I posted earlier in this forum.   Not only is the mean temp. above normal over Hudson Bay for a whole month---till Dec. 20 say---not a single member of the ensemble is below normal during that stretch! 

Accuweather takes it's info from the OP GFS and the CFS..horrible tools to work with for a forecast past 2 weeks..Not to say it won't be warm,but please back it up with something more accurate 

[mattinpa]

Accuweather takes it's info from the OP GFS and the CFS..horrible tools to work with for a forecast past 2 weeks..Not to say it won't be warm,but please back it up with something more accurate

Yeah during the early summer, you would think by those 45-day that summer would be cool. Right now it only looks like possible cool/cold shots, but hoping it looks better as we get towards the end of the month.

[IsentropicLift]

We should push close to 70 if not warmer in the warmest spots on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. As far as active weather is concerned, should be another snooze fest for at least the next week to ten days.

[winterwarlock]

76 forecast for me Wednesday

[AvantHiatus]

76 forecast for me Wednesday

Tropical stuff gets injected into the next big ridge. Lol

[uncle W]

November 6th-8th has the five greatest rain storms for the month...

date/year..........amount

11/7-8/1977..........9.19"

11/8/1972.............5.60"

11/6-7/1963..........4.23"

11/8-9/1889..........3.75"

11/8/2006.............3.60"

[winterwarlock]

Indian summer part deux

[nzucker]

November 6th-8th has the five greatest rain storms for the month...

date/year..........amount

11/7-8/1977..........9.19"

11/8/1972.............5.60"

11/6-7/1963..........4.23"

11/8-9/1889..........3.75"

11/8/2006.............3.60"

Pretty much all El Nino years..not sure about 1889.

[Morris]

Newark up to 68 already.

Park at 64.

JFK 65.

LGA 66.

[IsentropicLift]

I see absolutely nothing even noteworthy on the modeling other than a chance at a few frontal passages over the next two weeks. A pattern dominated by a SE ridge and cutter city. Wash, rinse and repeat.

[SnoSki14]

What a prolonged warm pattern we've been in that will only accelerate this month. Already close to 70F right now and could see upper 70s to near 80F by Friday. Cold air is nonexistent as it'll be difficult for lows to get under 40F even in the suburbs where average lows are already in the mid to upper 30s. 

 

I'm predicting a top 3 warmest November in the NYC area. 

[RedSky]

Aurora borealis viewing possible tonight. We have clear skies so that is a plus.

 

http://www.pennlive.com/news/2015/11/northern_lights_pennsylvania.html#incart_river_home

[MJO812]

Better warmth now than during winter

[winterwarlock]

Omg 76...push push

[Allsnow]

Torch...fall clean ups in shorts

[Isotherm]

Aurora borealis viewing possible tonight. We have clear skies so that is a plus.

 

http://www.pennlive.com/news/2015/11/northern_lights_pennsylvania.html#incart_river_home

 

 

Think it's going to be difficult to catch much activity south of 42N or so. Kp index has been hovering around 5-6, which is strong, but necessarily as robust as we'd like it for our latitude. It appears the Bz has gone south; however, so there should be some good viewing well north of NYC, possibly in the Hudson Valley / Catskills.

[winterwarlock]

I have sleeveless on

[IsentropicLift]

I have sleeveless on

Nobody here wants to see that mental image

[RedSky]

Leaf mulch run with the mower in shorts, thinking about lighting the tiki torches and lounging out and soaking up this mayvember air.

 

72F

[IsentropicLift]

There could be some sneaky showers in the area on Friday. Euro and GFS both showing this potential. 

 

Long range temps look quite pleasant with many days featuring highs in the 60's.

 

There could be a deep trough moving through sometime towards the end of next. That's about the only chance of significant widespread rainfall on the horizon.

[Isotherm]

72F / 37F split today. Still nice radiational cooling with the very long nights.

 

Trees quickly going past peak around here. Mostly just the oaks that are full-leafed (and now brown / yellow). Could be windy Friday/Saturday which should take down a lot of them.

[SnoSki14]

It could stay like this for weeks it feels wonderful. The only sad part is the lack of daylight but it's still really good.

I'm thinking some hit 80F Friday if many saw mid 70s today.

[JerseyWx]

Yeah SnoSki I agree man. 73° for today. T-shirt and shorts in November is just amazing.

[winterwarlock]

Nobody here wants to see that mental image

Wouldnt be so sure..dont make me post pics