Morris Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 we might see 80 friday That would be a crazy +23 or so departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 November1971-2000 normals...Temperature...47.1...Precipitation...4.36"...Snowfall...0.4"Average temperature...decade....Ave.t.....High.....low....ave.max/min...max...min...rainfall...snowfall...1870's.....42.2.....45.5.....37.0...........................76.......7.....3.66".....0.9"1880's.....43.2.....45.5.....38.7.....67.3.....21.2.....71.....13.....3.54".....1.8"1890's.....45.1.....49.9.....41.5.....66.7.....24.1.....72.....14.....3.76".....3.3"1900's.....45.7.....51.6.....39.7.....65.8.....26.6.....74.....19.....1.91".....0.3"1910's.....45.0.....47.8.....41.6.....69.5.....26.7.....76.....19.....2.90".....0.2"1920's.....45.6.....49.2.....43.9.....70.0.....24.1.....76.....12.....2.65".....0.1"1930's.....46.2.....51.9.....41.8.....70.4.....21.4.....78.....12.....3.05".....2.2"1940's.....47.5.....52.4.....44.2.....70.4.....27.5.....74.....23.....3.59".....0.6"1950's.....47.1.....49.7.....43.5.....70.5.....24.5.....84.....16.....3.80".....0.5"1960's.....47.3.....50.4.....42.5.....69.9.....28.7.....78.....20.....3.73".....0.3"1970's.....47.6.....52.5.....41.7.....71.5.....25.7.....81.....17.....4.91".....0.3"1980's.....47.7.....50.4.....44.6.....72.4.....26.9.....79.....18.....4.97".....0.6"1990's.....47.6.....52.0.....43.0.....72.0.....27.7.....80.....23.....3.41".....0.3"2000's.....48.6.....52.7.....45.3.....70.0.....28.0.....79.....22.....3.77".....trace2010's.....46.8.....51.9.....43.9.....68.0.....29.2.....74.....22.....2.93".....1.0"1870-2009.......46.2............................69.7.....25.6.......................3.55".....0.8"1980-2009.......48.0............................71.5.....27.5.......................4.05".....0.3"Warmest Novembers...52.7 in 200152.5 in 197952.4 in 194852.3 in 197551.9 in 201151.9 in 200651.9 in 199451.9 in 193151.5 in 190251.1 in 200950.8 in 1999Coldest...37.0 in 187338.8 in 187138.9 in 188039.0 in 188239.3 in 187539.7 in 190140.3 in 1869wettest...12.41" in 197212.26" in 197710.00" in 18898.90" in 19888.24" in 19638.09" in 19857.38" in 1932Driest...0.34" in 19760.60" in 19310.71" in 19080.71" in 18900.86" in 19170.90" in 1933Highest Temperatures...84 11/01/195083 11/02/195081 11/01/197480 11/15/199379 11/02/198279 11/03/200378 11/07/193878 11/05/196178 11/04/197578 11/03/1990Coldest temperatures..._7 11/30/187511 11/30/187212 11/27/193212 11/30/192913 11/22/188014 11/23/188014 11/24/188014 11/29/1875Lowest monthly max...60 in 187860 in 189360 in 190160 in 190461 in 197661 in 194761 in 190761 in 1884Highest monthly min...36 in 201136 in 199835 in 200635 in 200934 in 190234 in 196334 in 197534 in 200134 in 201033 in 190733 in 194833 in 1985Greatest monthly snowfall...19.0" in 189814.0" in 188212.8" in 1938_6.3" in 1892_5.0" in 1896Biggest snowfalls...10.0" 11/26-27/18989.5" 11/29/30/1882 est...8.8" 11/24-25/19386.0" 11/30/18985.0" 11/29-30/18964.7" 11/07-08/20124.7" 11/22-23/19894.0" 11/29-30/18924.0" 11/26-27/19383.7" 11/26/1882 est...3.7" 11/29-30/19453.0" 11/24/18983.0" 11/30/19672.9" 11/30/1995 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 November 1971-2000 normals...Temperature...47.1...Precipitation...4.36"...Snowfall...0.4" Average temperature... decade....Ave.t.....High.....low....ave.max/min...max...min...rainfall...snowfall... 1870's.....42.2.....45.5.....37.0...........................76.......7.....3.66".....0.9" 1880's.....43.2.....45.5.....38.7.....67.3.....21.2.....71.....13.....3.54".....1.8" 1890's.....45.1.....49.9.....41.5.....66.7.....24.1.....72.....14.....3.76".....3.3" 1900's.....45.7.....51.6.....39.7.....65.8.....26.6.....74.....19.....1.91".....0.3" 1910's.....45.0.....47.8.....41.6.....69.5.....26.7.....76.....19.....2.90".....0.2" 1920's.....45.6.....49.2.....43.9.....70.0.....24.1.....76.....12.....2.65".....0.1" 1930's.....46.2.....51.9.....41.8.....70.4.....21.4.....78.....12.....3.05".....2.2" 1940's.....47.5.....52.4.....44.2.....70.4.....27.5.....74.....23.....3.59".....0.6" 1950's.....47.1.....49.7.....43.5.....70.5.....24.5.....84.....16.....3.80".....0.5" 1960's.....47.3.....50.4.....42.5.....69.9.....28.7.....78.....20.....3.73".....0.3" 1970's.....47.6.....52.5.....41.7.....71.5.....25.7.....81.....17.....4.91".....0.3" 1980's.....47.7.....50.4.....44.6.....72.4.....26.9.....79.....18.....4.97".....0.6" 1990's.....47.6.....52.0.....43.0.....72.0.....27.7.....80.....23.....3.41".....0.3" 2000's.....48.6.....52.7.....45.3.....70.0.....28.0.....79.....22.....3.77".....trace 2010's.....46.8.....51.9.....43.9.....68.0.....29.2.....74.....22.....2.93".....1.0" 1870- 2009.......46.2............................69.7.....25.6.......................3.55".....0.8" 1980- 2009.......48.0............................71.5.....27.5.......................4.05".....0.3" Warmest Novembers... 52.7 in 2001 52.5 in 1979 52.4 in 1948 52.3 in 1975 51.9 in 2011 51.9 in 2006 51.9 in 1994 51.9 in 1931 51.5 in 1902 51.1 in 2009 50.8 in 1999 Coldest... 37.0 in 1873 38.8 in 1871 38.9 in 1880 39.0 in 1882 39.3 in 1875 39.7 in 1901 40.3 in 1869 wettest... 12.41" in 1972 12.26" in 1977 10.00" in 1889 8.90" in 1988 8.24" in 1963 8.09" in 1985 7.38" in 1932 Driest... 0.34" in 1976 0.60" in 1931 0.71" in 1908 0.71" in 1890 0.86" in 1917 0.90" in 1933 Highest Temperatures... 84 11/01/1950 83 11/02/1950 81 11/01/1974 80 11/15/1993 79 11/02/1982 79 11/03/2003 78 11/07/1938 78 11/05/1961 78 11/04/1975 78 11/03/1990 Coldest temperatures... _7 11/30/1875 11 11/30/1872 12 11/27/1932 12 11/30/1929 13 11/22/1880 14 11/23/1880 14 11/24/1880 14 11/29/1875 Lowest monthly max... 60 in 1878 60 in 1893 60 in 1901 60 in 1904 61 in 1976 61 in 1947 61 in 1907 61 in 1884 Highest monthly min... 36 in 2011 36 in 1998 35 in 2006 35 in 2009 34 in 1902 34 in 1963 34 in 1975 34 in 2001 34 in 2010 33 in 1907 33 in 1948 33 in 1985 Greatest monthly snowfall... 19.0" in 1898 14.0" in 1882 12.8" in 1938 _6.3" in 1892 _5.0" in 1896 Biggest snowfalls... 10.0" 11/26-27/1898 9.5" 11/29/30/1882 est... 8.8" 11/24-25/1938 6.0" 11/30/1898 5.0" 11/29-30/1896 4.7" 11/07-08/2012 4.7" 11/22-23/1989 4.0" 11/29-30/1892 4.0" 11/26-27/1938 3.7" 11/26/1882 est... 3.7" 11/29-30/1945 3.0" 11/24/1898 3.0" 11/30/1967 2.9" 11/30/1995 Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 The average daily mins are in the 40s. Most of the records that fall will probably be in this area. Albeit 3-5 days with record highs is definitely likely. The overall decadal trend says November is the new October this year and possibly the rest of the decade. We had a brief respite from 2010-2014. 46.8 vs 48.6 of the 2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Am i missing something? Daily avg lows dont drop into the 20s until further into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Am i missing something? Daily avg lows dont drop into the 20s until further into December. Fixed my post. The way the data is presented is somewhat messy. The average daily mins are in the 40s. Most of the records that fall (record warm lows) will probably be in this area. Albeit 2-4 days with record highs is definitely likely. The overall decadal trend says November is the new October this year and possibly the rest of the decade. We had a brief respite from 2010-2014. 46.8 vs 48.6 of the 2000s. Courtesy of uncle W. November1971-2000 normals...Temperature...47.1...Precipitation...4.36"...Snowfall...0.4" Average temperature... decade....Ave.t.....High.....low....ave.max/min...max...min...rainfall...snowfall... 1870's.....42.2.....45.5.....37.0...........................76.......7.....3.66".....0.9" 1880's.....43.2.....45.5.....38.7.....67.3.....21.2.....71.....13.....3.54".....1.8" 1890's.....45.1.....49.9.....41.5.....66.7.....24.1.....72.....14.....3.76".....3.3" 1900's.....45.7.....51.6.....39.7.....65.8.....26.6.....74.....19.....1.91".....0.3" 1910's.....45.0.....47.8.....41.6.....69.5.....26.7.....76.....19.....2.90".....0.2" 1920's.....45.6.....49.2.....43.9.....70.0.....24.1.....76.....12.....2.65".....0.1" 1930's.....46.2.....51.9.....41.8.....70.4.....21.4.....78.....12.....3.05".....2.2" 1940's.....47.5.....52.4.....44.2.....70.4.....27.5.....74.....23.....3.59".....0.6" 1950's.....47.1.....49.7.....43.5.....70.5.....24.5.....84.....16.....3.80".....0.5" 1960's.....47.3.....50.4.....42.5.....69.9.....28.7.....78.....20.....3.73".....0.3" 1970's.....47.6.....52.5.....41.7.....71.5.....25.7.....81.....17.....4.91".....0.3" 1980's.....47.7.....50.4.....44.6.....72.4.....26.9.....79.....18.....4.97".....0.6" 1990's.....47.6.....52.0.....43.0.....72.0.....27.7.....80.....23.....3.41".....0.3" 2000's.....48.6.....52.7.....45.3.....70.0.....28.0.....79.....22.....3.77".....trace 2010's.....46.8.....51.9.....43.9.....68.0.....29.2.....74.....22.....2.93".....1.0" 1870- 2009.......46.2............................69.7.....25.6.......................3.55".....0.8" 1980- 2009.......48.0............................71.5.....27.5.......................4.05".....0.3" Warmest Novembers... 52.7 in 2001 52.5 in 1979 52.4 in 1948 52.3 in 1975 51.9 in 2011 51.9 in 2006 51.9 in 1994 51.9 in 1931 51.5 in 1902 51.1 in 2009 50.8 in 1999 Coldest... 37.0 in 1873 38.8 in 1871 38.9 in 1880 39.0 in 1882 39.3 in 1875 39.7 in 1901 40.3 in 1869 wettest... 12.41" in 1972 12.26" in 1977 10.00" in 1889 8.90" in 1988 8.24" in 1963 8.09" in 1985 7.38" in 1932 Driest... 0.34" in 1976 0.60" in 1931 0.71" in 1908 0.71" in 1890 0.86" in 1917 0.90" in 1933 Highest Temperatures... 84 11/01/1950 83 11/02/1950 81 11/01/1974 80 11/15/1993 79 11/02/1982 79 11/03/2003 78 11/07/1938 78 11/05/1961 78 11/04/1975 78 11/03/1990 Coldest temperatures... _7 11/30/1875 11 11/30/1872 12 11/27/1932 12 11/30/1929 13 11/22/1880 14 11/23/1880 14 11/24/1880 14 11/29/1875 Lowest monthly max... 60 in 1878 60 in 1893 60 in 1901 60 in 1904 61 in 1976 61 in 1947 61 in 1907 61 in 1884 Highest monthly min... 36 in 2011 36 in 1998 35 in 2006 35 in 2009 34 in 1902 34 in 1963 34 in 1975 34 in 2001 34 in 2010 33 in 1907 33 in 1948 33 in 1985 Greatest monthly snowfall... 19.0" in 1898 14.0" in 1882 12.8" in 1938 _6.3" in 1892 _5.0" in 1896 Biggest snowfalls... 10.0" 11/26-27/1898 9.5" 11/29/30/1882 est... 8.8" 11/24-25/1938 6.0" 11/30/1898 5.0" 11/29-30/1896 4.7" 11/07-08/2012 4.7" 11/22-23/1989 4.0" 11/29-30/1892 4.0" 11/26-27/1938 3.7" 11/26/1882 est... 3.7" 11/29-30/1945 3.0" 11/24/1898 3.0" 11/30/1967 2.9" 11/30/1995 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Accuweather still showing just 7 days in Nov. will be below normal. If you ask me, the first 3 weeks of Dec. will have even a worse ratio. Look at that experimental output I posted earlier in this forum. Not only is the mean temp. above normal over Hudson Bay for a whole month---till Dec. 20 say---not a single member of the ensemble is below normal during that stretch! Accuweather takes it's info from the OP GFS and the CFS..horrible tools to work with for a forecast past 2 weeks..Not to say it won't be warm,but please back it up with something more accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Accuweather takes it's info from the OP GFS and the CFS..horrible tools to work with for a forecast past 2 weeks..Not to say it won't be warm,but please back it up with something more accurate Yeah during the early summer, you would think by those 45-day that summer would be cool. Right now it only looks like possible cool/cold shots, but hoping it looks better as we get towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 We should push close to 70 if not warmer in the warmest spots on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. As far as active weather is concerned, should be another snooze fest for at least the next week to ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 76 forecast for me Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 76 forecast for me Wednesday Tropical stuff gets injected into the next big ridge. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 November 6th-8th has the five greatest rain storms for the month... date/year..........amount 11/7-8/1977..........9.19" 11/8/1972.............5.60" 11/6-7/1963..........4.23" 11/8-9/1889..........3.75" 11/8/2006.............3.60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Indian summer part deux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 November 6th-8th has the five greatest rain storms for the month... date/year..........amount 11/7-8/1977..........9.19" 11/8/1972.............5.60" 11/6-7/1963..........4.23" 11/8-9/1889..........3.75" 11/8/2006.............3.60" Pretty much all El Nino years..not sure about 1889. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Newark up to 68 already. Park at 64. JFK 65. LGA 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 I see absolutely nothing even noteworthy on the modeling other than a chance at a few frontal passages over the next two weeks. A pattern dominated by a SE ridge and cutter city. Wash, rinse and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 What a prolonged warm pattern we've been in that will only accelerate this month. Already close to 70F right now and could see upper 70s to near 80F by Friday. Cold air is nonexistent as it'll be difficult for lows to get under 40F even in the suburbs where average lows are already in the mid to upper 30s. I'm predicting a top 3 warmest November in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Aurora borealis viewing possible tonight. We have clear skies so that is a plus. http://www.pennlive.com/news/2015/11/northern_lights_pennsylvania.html#incart_river_home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Better warmth now than during winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Omg 76...push push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Torch...fall clean ups in shorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Aurora borealis viewing possible tonight. We have clear skies so that is a plus. http://www.pennlive.com/news/2015/11/northern_lights_pennsylvania.html#incart_river_home Think it's going to be difficult to catch much activity south of 42N or so. Kp index has been hovering around 5-6, which is strong, but necessarily as robust as we'd like it for our latitude. It appears the Bz has gone south; however, so there should be some good viewing well north of NYC, possibly in the Hudson Valley / Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 I have sleeveless on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 I have sleeveless on Nobody here wants to see that mental image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Leaf mulch run with the mower in shorts, thinking about lighting the tiki torches and lounging out and soaking up this mayvember air. 72F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 There could be some sneaky showers in the area on Friday. Euro and GFS both showing this potential. Long range temps look quite pleasant with many days featuring highs in the 60's. There could be a deep trough moving through sometime towards the end of next. That's about the only chance of significant widespread rainfall on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 72F / 37F split today. Still nice radiational cooling with the very long nights. Trees quickly going past peak around here. Mostly just the oaks that are full-leafed (and now brown / yellow). Could be windy Friday/Saturday which should take down a lot of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 It could stay like this for weeks it feels wonderful. The only sad part is the lack of daylight but it's still really good. I'm thinking some hit 80F Friday if many saw mid 70s today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Yeah SnoSki I agree man. 73° for today. T-shirt and shorts in November is just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Nobody here wants to see that mental image Wouldnt be so sure..dont make me post pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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