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Which November will show up? November 2015 obs/discussion


dmillz25

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The departure required for it to stay in first isn't a lot. +4 for the rest of the month is enough.

 

+5 is the magic number for warmest Fall and November. But anything just a little below still will rank very high.

 

The 500 mb pattern this fall more resembled a hot summer set up with a strong ridge north of Hawaii and over the GL/NE.

You can also see how the strong ridge continued the drought established during the spring.

 

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The departure required for it to stay in first isn't a lot. +4 for the rest of the month is enough.

It will probably be the warmest November or record for NYC but it isn't a lock, with Monday and Tuesday being below normal (and possibly the last few days of the month as well) you'd need pretty big positive departures the remaining days.
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It will probably be the warmest November or record for NYC but it isn't a lock, with Monday and Tuesday being below normal (and possibly the last few days of the month as well) you'd need pretty big positive departures the remaining days.

Oh Thursday and Friday should take care of those + departures easily (anywhere from +10 to +15 appears very likely for both days).

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NYC is at +6.5 through the 21st. NYC needs to hold a +5 or greater for the full month of November

in order to tie the warmest November in 2001 and fall in 1931.

 

 

Roger Smith has the month provisional at +3.0 for NYC, which seems like too much of a drop to me. But there's virtually no chance they finish +5 or higher.

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Color me confused, why so?

 

Mathematically it will be very difficult, because in order to sustain such positive anomalies, the pattern must continue to be anomalously warm. The departure is at so great a positive level such that normal or even slightly above normal dailies will decrease the departure. The next 48-72 hours or so will be colder than average, followed by a 2-3 day warm-up, and then the last 1-2 days of month could be normal/cool. So the total departure over the next 7 days might be close to normal +/- a little, which would noticeably decrease the departure anyway. > +5 monthly departures require essentially a torch regime from start to finish.

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