Morris Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 NYC is at +6.5 through the 21st. NYC needs to hold a +5 or greater for the full month of November in order to tie the warmest November in 2001 and fall in 1931. The departure required for it to stay in first isn't a lot. +4 for the rest of the month is enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 The departure required for it to stay in first isn't a lot. +4 for the rest of the month is enough. +5 is the magic number for warmest Fall and November. But anything just a little below still will rank very high. The 500 mb pattern this fall more resembled a hot summer set up with a strong ridge north of Hawaii and over the GL/NE. You can also see how the strong ridge continued the drought established during the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Last November, Central Park 6 days with lows in the 20's and 9 days with lows in the 30's. What a difference a year makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 It will also be the first time NYC hasn't had any measurable snow in either October or November since 2009 which was, of course, an El Nino year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 The departure required for it to stay in first isn't a lot. +4 for the rest of the month is enough.It will probably be the warmest November or record for NYC but it isn't a lock, with Monday and Tuesday being below normal (and possibly the last few days of the month as well) you'd need pretty big positive departures the remaining days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 The cold front is passing very slowly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 It will probably be the warmest November or record for NYC but it isn't a lock, with Monday and Tuesday being below normal (and possibly the last few days of the month as well) you'd need pretty big positive departures the remaining days. Oh Thursday and Friday should take care of those + departures easily (anywhere from +10 to +15 appears very likely for both days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 NYC is at +6.5 through the 21st. NYC needs to hold a +5 or greater for the full month of November in order to tie the warmest November in 2001 and fall in 1931. Roger Smith has the month provisional at +3.0 for NYC, which seems like too much of a drop to me. But there's virtually no chance they finish +5 or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Roger Smith has the month provisional at +3.0 for NYC, which seems like too much of a drop to me. But there's virtually no chance they finish +5 or higher. Color me confused, why so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Nws calling for snow tonight out here in suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Color me confused, why so? Mathematically it will be very difficult, because in order to sustain such positive anomalies, the pattern must continue to be anomalously warm. The departure is at so great a positive level such that normal or even slightly above normal dailies will decrease the departure. The next 48-72 hours or so will be colder than average, followed by a 2-3 day warm-up, and then the last 1-2 days of month could be normal/cool. So the total departure over the next 7 days might be close to normal +/- a little, which would noticeably decrease the departure anyway. > +5 monthly departures require essentially a torch regime from start to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 You can see on TJFK TDWR the sharp edge of the precipitation bisecting the MacArthur Airport runways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Nws has some snow for eastern LI tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Nws has some snow for eastern LI tonight. They also said partly sunny today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Amazing sunset right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Amazing sunset right now. Was about to post that. Just took some amazing photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Is the precip in West NJ Virga? Any reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Was about to post that. Just took some amazing photos. Wow, yeah that was fire like. Best one in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Is the precip in West NJ Virga? Any reports? What precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 What precip? The radar that I'm using shows some light rain in West NJ. I'm assuming it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 The radar that I'm using shows some light rain in West NJ. I'm assuming it's wrong. http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1KPHLa_h.gifDef dont see any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 Beautiful sunset for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 The radar that I'm using shows some light rain in West NJ. I'm assuming it's wrong.Overcast here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Was about to post that. Just took some amazing photos. Great photos. Easily one of the most vivid recent sunsets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 For sure one of the best: would love to have been at the beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Wow, sweet pics. Light rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Tom drove back from Redbank earlier. That sky was insane. Peter Lik would charge 5k for those photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Great sunset photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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