bluewave Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It shouldn't be a surprise but the models now start out December very mild...pretty ugly look on the EPS...2006 2011 where some of the examples orhwxman gave in the sne thread ugh Classic December El Nino pattern showing up on the weeklies. http://www.kptv.com/link/492613/fox-12-weather-blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It shouldn't be a surprise but the models now start out December very mild...pretty ugly look on the EPS...2006 2011 where some of the examples orhwxman gave in the sne thread ughIt's nice if you want to save on heating. Last December was a torch too but we didn't have a top 3 Nino either. It'll be very interesting to see how or if the pattern flips completely like it did last year. So far the torch has been in cruise control, but for how long. Based on previous patterns that love to stay locked in for months, I'd be very weary of a snowy Feb. The EPO is going to get thrashed and blocking just does not want to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Finished with 2.03" here. Wasn't expecting that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 It's nice if you want to save on heating. Last December was a torch too but we didn't have a top 3 Nino either. It'll be very interesting to see how or if the pattern flips completely like it did last year. So far the torch has been in cruise control, but for how long. Based on previous patterns that love to stay locked in for months, I'd be very weary of a snowy Feb. The EPO is going to get thrashed and blocking just does not want to get going. Blocking isn't supposed to get going until January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Today will add to this and then a few days around average, or just below. If you take the GFS until the end of its run at face value, where does it have us? +7 is tough to maintain. A few days of average will still take off a few tenths each day. We'll probably be below +6 by early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 1.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It's nice if you want to save on heating. Last December was a torch too but we didn't have a top 3 Nino either. It'll be very interesting to see how or if the pattern flips completely like it did last year. So far the torch has been in cruise control, but for how long. Based on previous patterns that love to stay locked in for months, I'd be very weary of a snowy Feb. The EPO is going to get thrashed and blocking just does not want to get going. Huh the EPO is going to get thrashed ? What ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Dew point down from 60->23 already. What a change in air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 GFS back to cool and dry to open December after a brief warmup over Thanksgiving weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Classic December El Nino pattern showing up on the weeklies. http://www.kptv.com/link/492613/fox-12-weather-blog Yep....classic Nino pattern for December with the pac flow...if NYC doesn't touch 32 in the next cold shot I doubt they do it anytime soon in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 GFS back to cool and dry to open December after a brief warmup over Thanksgiving weekend Models are flip flopping way too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Models are flip flopping way too much.Pretty normal for the mid to long rangeSent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Pretty normal for the mid to long range Sent from my VS986 Isn't that what's leftover from the -epo dump out west? I would imagine it wouldn't last long as the ensembles have a pac flow by day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 CFS mean 2mT's for next 60 days is almost exclusively below normal for Seattle and above normal for us during this period. The MJO looks to go into CoD till Dec 20, from phase 5---4 in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 49/26 currently.. Another night in the 20s incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Central Park has only had two days below normal this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 This could be the first El Nino year in NYC since 1991 where both October and November have below normal precipitation. This has been very unusual for El Ninos which have featured either one or both months with above normal precipitation since then. This drought has been very persistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 GFS still wants to bring a nuisance snow event for many of us next Sunday and Monday, obviously not to be taken serious yet, but there none the less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 This could be the first El Nino year in NYC since 1991 where both October and November have below normal precipitation. This has been very unusual for El Ninos which have featured either one or both months with above normal precipitation since then. This drought has been very persistent. 20151117_northeast_trd.jpg Pretty ironic that it overlays the corridor that got slammed 2nd half of last winter Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Pretty ironic that it overlays the corridor that got slammed 2nd half of last winter Sent from my iPhone True. Many areas around our region that generally had over 40 inches of snow last winter were the driest since the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Central Park has only had two days below normal this month. And today is going to end up average. Monday and Tuesday should be our greatest negative departures for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 not every el nino winter is wet around NYC... precipitation for el nino winters...2009-10 was the wettest Dec-Feb and Dec-Mar periods...three years had over 10" in March...November (not shone) had two years with 12" of precipitation...1972 and 1977...1963 had over 8" in November...reds are dry and blue wet...black is near average... winter......Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Dec/Feb.....Dec/Mar... 2014-15...6.04"...5.23"...2.04"...4.00".......13.31".......17.31" 2009-10...7.27"...2.08"...6.69"..10.69"......16.04".......26.73" 2006-07...2.15"...3.64"...1.99"...5.35".........7.78".......13.03" 2004-05...3.71"...4.67"...3.04"...4.89".......11.42".......15.31" 2002-03...4.06"...2.30"...4.56"...4.57".......10.92".......15.49" 1997-98...4.27"...5.20"...5.81"...5.08".......15.28".......20.33" 1994-95...2.90"...3.75"...3.13"...1.26".........9.78".......11.04" 1991-92...4.26"...1.68"...1.87"...4.08".........7.81".......11.89" 1987-88...2.17"...3.64"...3.91"...5.27".........9.72".......14.99" 1986-87...6.16"...5.81"...1.01"...4.93".......12.98".......17.91" 1982-83...1.47"...5.01"...3.22"..10.54".........9.70"......20.24" 1979-80...2.69"...1.72"...1.04"..10.41".........5.45"......15.86" 1977-78...5.06"...8.27"...1.59"...2.73".......14.92".......17.65" 1976-77...2.29"...2.25"...2.51"...7.41".........7.05".......12.46" 1972-73...6.09"...4.53"...4.55"...3.60".......15.17".......18.77" 1969-70...7.07"...0.66"...4.52"...4.18".......12.25".......16.43" 1968-69...4.15"...1.10"...3.05"...3.73".........8.30".......12.03" 1965-66...1.72"...2.63"...4.96"...0.94".........9.31".......10.25" 1963-64...2.31"...4.62"...2.93"...2.57".........9.86".......12.43" 1958-59...1.25"...2.34"...1.69"...3.77".........5.28".........9.05" 1957-58...5.26"...3.79"...2.98"...3.19".......12.03".......15.22" 1953-54...4.42"...1.65"...1.81"...3.25".........7.88".......11.13" 1951-52...4.28"...4.55"...1.38"...4.00".......10.21".......14.21" average...3.58"...3.50"...3.27"...3.96".......10.35".......14.31" ............................................................................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Yearly precip here at 36.40", so about a 9" deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Park up to 52. Day going to end above average. We just can't help it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Park up to 52. Day going to end above average. We just can't help it. Had some clearing here for awhile so down to 40 degrees currently though rising slowly now...only managed 49 here for a high this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 42 F currently. 53 F in NYC (wow!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Midnight high of 53 at the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Cold front approaching New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Midnight high of 53 at the park. High of at least 55 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 NYC is at +6.5 through the 21st. NYC needs to hold a +5 or greater for the full month of November in order to tie the warmest November in 2001 and fall in 1931. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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