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Which November will show up? November 2015 obs/discussion


dmillz25

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The 06z gfs op would lock in a record warm November. It rele backs down on the cool air and drives in a few days of +10-15 departures 27-29.

In fact one of those days could easily be +20 before the front comes through. Also shows a putrid early winter pattern with pacific air ruling the CONUS.

But again that was to be expected so nothing out of the ordinary although I didn't think November would be this warm.

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NYC is currently at +6.6 for November. To tie the record warmest November set

in 2001 NYC needs to finish at +5.0. A +5.0 departure is also necessary to tie the warmest

fall (SON) on record set in 1931.

Today will add to this and then a few days around average, or just below.

If you take the GFS until the end of its run at face value, where does it have us?

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