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Which November will show up? November 2015 obs/discussion


dmillz25

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Very unusual to see so much precipitation over the PAC NW during an El Nino November.

nws_precip_conus2_mtd.png

climdivcorr.72.69.125.6.321.16.19.32.prcp.gif

Goes to show this strong/super Nino is already not playing by the rules. This is exactly what we want to see.

I feel bad for SoCal though they really need the rain!!!

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Please please stop comparing Westhampton to places like Monticello. lol

Everyone here knows the "cold" out there on the beach is extremely shallow and once disturbed it skyrockets. Besides its never cold there when it counts.

Btw... 26 for a low here

I've seen some insane 6 hour rises there. When it starts off clear and calm and then an onshore wind commences. And they are always the first to turn to rain (along with Montauk) during borderline events. It still amazes me how well they radiate though. You have to admit it's impressive when looking at KFOX's location.
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It's like a sandbox out there. I'm sure If you go up say 25 meters on a calm wind night at the surface out there when they are radiating like crazy and its 10-20 degrees warmer then at the sensor.

People get excited during winter "it's 9 at westhampton maybe we will get more then expected on the coast" 3 hours later a light southeast flow developes and its up to 36 there

I do find it amazing when KFOX is -14 and KNYC is 21.
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It looks pretty consistent with the 4km NAM simulated radar, which still shows localized heavy rain later this evening.

 

You can already see expanding light echoes over eastern PA.

All models take that area and blow it up...just north and east of NYC gets 1-2 inches.  RGEM is over 2 inches for LHV and W CT.

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You tossed the models a few days ago when I said it was getting drier...enjoy the half inch

Models have always been wet except for a few blip runs.  Especially north and east of NYC.   All models given that region 1-3 inches later today and tonight.   Models insisting on a wave which delivers the goods, but you'd never know it looking at current radar, you'd think it was a .10-.25 event.

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Models have always been wet except for a few blip runs. Especially north and east of NYC. All models given that region 1-3 inches later today and tonight. Models insisting on a wave which delivers the goods, but you'd never know it looking at current radar, you'd think it was a .10-.25 event.

Ehhhh still looking like that!!! Not calling bust but the current radar looks lame at best

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Ehhhh still looking like that!!! Not calling bust but the current radar looks lame at best

yeah, there's a good batch blossoming over Philly, but I agree, it would appear that it's going to be difficult for many to get an inch, we'll see later.  Would be a big model fail, with all of them showing an inch or better as of 12z today, that's a big 12 hour bustola...imagine that in a snow event, forecasts for 6-12 and every gets 1-3

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yeah, there's a good batch blossoming over Philly, but I agree, it would appear that it's going to be difficult for many to get an inch, we'll see later.  Would be a big model fail, with all of them showing an inch or better as of 12z today, that's a big 12 hour bustola...imagine that in a snow event, forecasts for 6-12 and every gets 1-3

Closing in on an inch as of now at .71". Raining pretty hard and that big batch looks to be here for awhile.

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