CIK62 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 fwiw: The next 8 months show ab. 2mT's for us on the CFSv2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Pretty big snowstorm for Chicago if the models are correct for Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Very unusual to see so much precipitation over the PAC NW during an El Nino November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Even an overcast day like today, was +5 so far in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Very unusual to see so much precipitation over the PAC NW during an El Nino November. nws_precip_conus2_mtd.png climdivcorr.72.69.125.6.321.16.19.32.prcp.gif Goes to show this strong/super Nino is already not playing by the rules. This is exactly what we want to see. I feel bad for SoCal though they really need the rain!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 We might get a later midnight high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Please please stop comparing Westhampton to places like Monticello. lol Everyone here knows the "cold" out there on the beach is extremely shallow and once disturbed it skyrockets. Besides its never cold there when it counts. Btw... 26 for a low here I've seen some insane 6 hour rises there. When it starts off clear and calm and then an onshore wind commences. And they are always the first to turn to rain (along with Montauk) during borderline events. It still amazes me how well they radiate though. You have to admit it's impressive when looking at KFOX's location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 It's like a sandbox out there. I'm sure If you go up say 25 meters on a calm wind night at the surface out there when they are radiating like crazy and its 10-20 degrees warmer then at the sensor. People get excited during winter "it's 9 at westhampton maybe we will get more then expected on the coast" 3 hours later a light southeast flow developes and its up to 36 there I do find it amazing when KFOX is -14 and KNYC is 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 If the 57 minimum in NYC holds through midnight, then we'll tie the record highest minimum. 11/19 57 in 1906 55 in 2003 54in 2004+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Radar looks pretty bad right now for heavy rains....maybe the wave that develops later does it, but I thought models had a big slug of heavy rain through PA and NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Radar looks pretty bad right now for heavy rains....maybe the wave that develops later does it, but I thought models had a big slug of heavy rain through PA and NY? Yeah right now it's just eh. Drizzling lightly here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Radar looks beyond pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Radar looks beyond pathetic It looks pretty consistent with the 4km NAM simulated radar, which still shows localized heavy rain later this evening. You can already see expanding light echoes over eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 It looks pretty consistent with the 4km NAM simulated radar, which still shows localized heavy rain later this evening. You can already see expanding light echoes over eastern PA. All models take that area and blow it up...just north and east of NYC gets 1-2 inches. RGEM is over 2 inches for LHV and W CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 All models take that area and blow it up...just north and east of NYC gets 1-2 inches. RGEM is over 2 inches for LHV and W CT. You tossed the models a few days ago when I said it was getting drier...enjoy the half inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Things are going to get a lot more interesting once we throw a recurving Typhoon into the mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 the euro is wet. 1+ for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 You tossed the models a few days ago when I said it was getting drier...enjoy the half inch Models have always been wet except for a few blip runs. Especially north and east of NYC. All models given that region 1-3 inches later today and tonight. Models insisting on a wave which delivers the goods, but you'd never know it looking at current radar, you'd think it was a .10-.25 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 18z NAM continues with a quick dump of rain over NYC and points N and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 18z NAM continues with a quick dump of rain over NYC and points N and E They had over a inch for areas from philly-south yesterday, that busted badly today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Models have always been wet except for a few blip runs. Especially north and east of NYC. All models given that region 1-3 inches later today and tonight. Models insisting on a wave which delivers the goods, but you'd never know it looking at current radar, you'd think it was a .10-.25 event. Ehhhh still looking like that!!! Not calling bust but the current radar looks lame at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Ehhhh still looking like that!!! Not calling bust but the current radar looks lame at best yeah, there's a good batch blossoming over Philly, but I agree, it would appear that it's going to be difficult for many to get an inch, we'll see later. Would be a big model fail, with all of them showing an inch or better as of 12z today, that's a big 12 hour bustola...imagine that in a snow event, forecasts for 6-12 and every gets 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 +13 at the park today. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 +13 at the park today. Brutal. rather have it now than in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 yeah, there's a good batch blossoming over Philly, but I agree, it would appear that it's going to be difficult for many to get an inch, we'll see later. Would be a big model fail, with all of them showing an inch or better as of 12z today, that's a big 12 hour bustola...imagine that in a snow event, forecasts for 6-12 and every gets 1-3 Closing in on an inch as of now at .71". Raining pretty hard and that big batch looks to be here for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 rather have it now than in December. How about both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Heavyish rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 heavy rain has finally moved in. Warm, 59/57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Rain is really heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Pouring here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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