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Which November will show up? November 2015 obs/discussion


dmillz25

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18z GFS has what looks like a coastal just east of LI on Sunday.

 

Tries to anyway, but the secondary area of low pressure stays too weak and the two systems never phase. Early next week will be interesting to watch and might bring some flakes to the area. The last three runs of the GFS have hinted at a coastal storm -- albeit weak and OTS -- in that time period.

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NYC is on track for a top 3 warmest fall finish. The actual November departures will determine

the final spot. NYC is currently +6.3 in November.

 

#1.....61.8 in 1931

#2.....61.2 in 1961

#3.....60.7 in 1946

 

November departures and fall finish:

 

+3.................................................................................61.1

+4.................................................................................61.4

+5.................................................................................61.7

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Monday morning looks like a good shot for NYC to get to 32...

 

How likely is that looking now? Most forecasts have mid 30s or so but its been trending colder every day.

I had peppers and stuff growing and a few are still alive, I don't need them but I'm curious how long they can last.

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And the not so fake freeze is still ongoing.

Real freeze places like KMSV are above freezing already for a while now.

 

Please please stop comparing Westhampton to places like Monticello. lol

 

Everyone here knows the "cold" out there on the beach is extremely shallow and once disturbed it skyrockets. Besides its never cold there when it counts. 

 

Btw... 26 for a low here

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Please please stop comparing Westhampton to places like Monticello. lol

 

Everyone here knows the "cold" out there on the beach is extremely shallow and once disturbed it skyrockets. Besides its never cold there when it counts. 

 

Btw... 26 for a low here

 

Yeah, you'll never get snow out of it...

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I don't see a negative ao/nao for December...Until I see it coming I will expect a mild December...that doesn't mean it can't snow like in Dec 1957, 79 and 82...all three were mild but had a 3" or greater snowfall before the 21st of the month when the ao was negative for a few days in 1979 and 1982...Todays ao forecast doesn't give me much hope that December will see a negative ao/nao on average...

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FWIW the Euro seasonal has been going with a +NAO December for several months now.

We'll see if it's correct about the introduction of some negative intervals after January 15th

and especially February to go along with the main ridge pulling back west of Hudson Bay.

The Euro has the classic back-loaded El Nino winter look to it.

the back loaded el nino winters good or bad...

post-343-0-87412400-1447868734_thumb.png

post-343-0-76572400-1447868767_thumb.png

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Please please stop comparing Westhampton to places like Monticello. lol

Everyone here knows the "cold" out there on the beach is extremely shallow and once disturbed it skyrockets. Besides its never cold there when it counts.

Btw... 26 for a low here

It's like a sandbox out there. I'm sure If you go up say 25 meters on a calm wind night at the surface out there when they are radiating like crazy and its 10-20 degrees warmer then at the sensor.

People get excited during winter "it's 9 at westhampton maybe we will get more then expected on the coast" 3 hours later a light southeast flow developes and its up to 36 there

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