UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 GFS is popping out some pretty cold numbers for Dec 1st, many in the single digits, something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 GFS is popping out some pretty cold numbers for Dec 1st, many in the single digits, something to watch Single digits? I don't see any single digits, but still cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Single digits? I don't see any single digits, but still cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Single digits? I don't see any single digits, but still cold. Not for NYC metro but many in far burbs are single digit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Not for NYC metro but many in far burbs are single digitIt will moderate as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 It will moderate as we get closer. Totally agree, just found it to be some interesting numbers, however transient it may be, I do believe we warm up again sometime between the 1st and 2nd weeks of Dec, then see a drop with some storm chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Westhampton got down to freezing. Newark 44. Park 51. LGA 51. JFK 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 http://m.recordonline.com/article/20141115/NEWS/141119601 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 http://m.recordonline.com/article/20141115/NEWS/141119601 That day is burned into my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 That day is burned into my memory. I was pretty young but i remember it being talked about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I was pretty young but i remember it being talked about. I was a junior in high school and remember the wind that day and driving rain was incredible. One of my teachers lost his son in the school and I currently work with a woman who was a student in the school at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 already up to a balmy 63. 70 could be in reach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I was a junior in high school and remember the wind that day and driving rain was incredible. One of my teachers lost his son in the school and I currently work with a woman who was a student in the school at the time. It was a crazy outbreak. Something like every state east of the mississippi had either tornadoes or wind damage associated with the cold front including an F4 in Alabama that killed 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I was a junior in high school and remember the wind that day and driving rain was incredible. One of my teachers lost his son in the school and I currently work with a woman who was a student in the school at the time. this was the beginning of the pattern change that brought us the historic cold from roughly 11/20-12/25 that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I was a junior in high school and remember the wind that day and driving rain was incredible. One of my teachers lost his son in the school and I currently work with a woman who was a student in the school at the time. Correction, I was a senior, it was my math teacher junior year who lost his son. I remember sitting in the library and the rain was being driven inside through cracks around the windows, the giant flag out front was flying totally straight out, first time I ever saw that there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 The 500mb wavelength changes look very impressive for the rest of the month. Yeah, it looks to get quite volatile for a period of time here toward the end of November. But I think we will see a bit of a relaxation with tendency for warmer than normal temperatures thereafter from early Dec onward -- for a few weeks at least. Should be sufficient to cause weenie suicides as per usual. Despite the daily ups and downs, new ENSO news, etc, everything seems generally on track to me. The pattern seemed to have a propensity to produce a colder than normal/active period in late Nov, but likely to snap back in Dec. Onward from there, everything still seems on track to me for a slow-play developing into a "second half slammer" of a winter...or whatever they're calling it nowadays . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Yeah, it looks to get quite volatile for a period of time here toward the end of November. But I think we will see a bit of a relaxation with tendency for warmer than normal temperatures thereafter from early Dec onward -- for a few weeks at least. Should be sufficient to cause weenie suicides as per usual. Despite the daily ups and downs, new ENSO news, etc, everything seems generally on track to me. The pattern seemed to have a propensity to produce a colder than normal/active period in late Nov, but likely to snap back in Dec. Onward from there, everything still seems on track to me for a slow-play developing into a "second half slammer" of a winter...or whatever they're calling it nowadays . Thank you for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 66 and loverly..hoping to hit 70 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 66 and loverly..hoping to hit 70 today This would be a nice day in June, let alone mid-late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Yeah, it looks to get quite volatile for a period of time here toward the end of November. But I think we will see a bit of a relaxation with tendency for warmer than normal temperatures thereafter from early Dec onward -- for a few weeks at least. Should be sufficient to cause weenie suicides as per usual. Despite the daily ups and downs, new ENSO news, etc, everything seems generally on track to me. The pattern seemed to have a propensity to produce a colder than normal/active period in late Nov, but likely to snap back in Dec. Onward from there, everything still seems on track to me for a slow-play developing into a "second half slammer" of a winter...or whatever they're calling it nowadays . Yeah, that would follow typical El Nino monthly winter progression that the ECMWF monthlies are advertising. It will be interesting to see much the colder temps later this month drop the fall average temperature from the current record of 64.2 degrees. Here are the top 10 warmest fall average temperatures for NYC: 64.2....2015 through 11/15 61.8....1931 61.2....1961 60.7....1946 60.3....1900,1953 60.2....1941 60.1....1979 60.0....1985 59.9....1990 59.8....2007 59.7....2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Yeah, that would follow typical El Nino monthly winter progression that the ECMWF monthlies are advertising. It will be interesting to see much the colder temps later this month drop the fall average temperature from the current record of 64.2 degrees. Here are the top 10 warmest fall average temperatures for NYC: 64.2....2015 through 11/15 61.8....1931 61.2....1961 60.7....1946 60.3....1900,1953 60.2....1941 60.1....1979 60.0....1985 59.9....1990 59.8....2007 59.7....2011 Wow. Thanks for the stats. Absolutely crushing the record so far. With the pattern ahead, there's a pretty good chance we break it...even if there's a brief cold snap towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Hoping any "colder" snap peters out and we shatter the warmest November record. Today will put a nice positive departure in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Highs so far today: 65 in the Park. 68 in Newark. 65 in JFK. 66 in LGA. 65 in Westhampton. 66 in Islip. 67 in TTN. 68 in TEB. 69 in PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 after this year the 2010's will have the warmest decade so far beating the 1940's... September 1st to November 30th monthly average and seasonal average...Monthly and seasonal precipitation.......Temperature.....................................................Precipitation........................................................decade...Sept...Oct...Nov...Ave........................Sept.....Oct....Nov....Total...1870's...65.3...55.5...42.2...54.3.....................3.41"...3.55"...3.66"...10.62"1880's...66.2...53.9...43.2...54.4.....................4.18"...3.17"...3.54"...10.89"1890's...67.7...55.5...45.1...56.1.....................3.38"...3.59"...3.76"...10.73"1900's...68.1...57.2...45.7...57.0.....................3.84"...4.39"...1.91"...10.14"1910's...66.8...57.9...45.0...56.6.....................5.15"...3.22"...3.05"...10.40"1920's...67.8...56.8...45.6...56.7.....................3.54"...3.39"...2.65".....9.58"1930's...68.7...57.4...46.2...57.4.....................5.15"...3.22"...3.05"...11.42"1940's...68.7...58.7...47.5...58.3.....................3.70"...2.42"...3.59".....9.71"1950's...68.3...58.6...47.1...58.0.....................2.36"...3.68"...3.80".....9.84"1960's...67.7...58.2...47.3...57.7.....................3.85"...2.45"...3.73"...10.03"1970's...68.3...56.9...47.6...57.6.....................4.73"...3.88"...4.91"...13.52"1980's...68.6...57.0...47.7...57.8.....................3.58"...4.01"...4.97"...12.56"1990's...68.0...57.7...47.6...57.8.....................4.18"...3.85"...3.41"...11.44"2000's...68.6...57.0...48.6...58.1.....................4.91"...5.23"...3.77"...13.91"2010's...69.5...58.6...46.6...58.2.....................4.32"...4.01"...3.13"...10.76" *2010-14... 1870-.2009.....67.8...57.0...46.2...57.0.....................3.85"...3.66"...3.55"...11.06"1980-2009.....68.4...57.2...48.0...57.9.....................4.22"...4.36"...4.05"...12.63"...............................................................................................................................................Coolest........Warmest........Wettest.........Driest....51.7 in 1871...61.8 in 1931...22.13" in 1913...4.00" in 190851.8 in 1887...61.2 in 1961...22.04" in 1977...4.67" in 190952.3 in 1888...60.7 in 1946...21.68" in 2005...4.93" in 188152.3 in 1875...60.3 in 1900...20.01" in 1972...4.97" in 193152.3 in 1869...60.3 in 2005...19.93" in 1983...5.02" in 187952.7 in 1917...60.2 in 1941...19.60" in 1882...5.32" in 196552.7 in 1873...60.1 in 1979...19.53" in 1889...5.76" in 190152.8 in 1883...60.0 in 1985...18.79" in 1894...5.77" in 194153.1 in 1880...59.9 in 1990...18.58" in 1944...5.83" in 191453.2 in 1889...59.8 in 1971...18.53" in 2011...5.96" in 1948.....................59.8 in 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Newark hit 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 69 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Up to 70F. Wore shorts and a t shirt outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 +11 departure at the park today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Awesome day today got to 65 in white plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Westhampton down to 45 already. Time to move there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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