snywx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Feels like mid nov out there tonight. Currently 33/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 18Z gfs has a big ridge in the west with cold dumping in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Park down to 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 18Z gfs has a big ridge in the west with cold dumping in the east How far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 KJFK came in at 51. October 19th was 52. Depending on what your baseline station is, the delay still stands but the record may already be surpassed for some locales. Please dont speculate. Post the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Westhampton down to 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Low of 37 already in Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Westhampton down to 30. 27 and dropping. They've had many hard freezes already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 How far out? Turkey week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 The first negative departure of the month in NYC yesterday was only a -2. NYC now at +6.9 for November so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Low of 39 in the park. 35 in Newark. 42 in La Guardia. 40 in JFK. 24 in Westhampton. 31 in Teterboro. 33 in Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Low of 39 in the park. 35 in Newark. 42 in La Guardia. 40 in JFK. 24 in Westhampton. 31 in Teterboro. 33 in Trenton. Yea, chilly this morning. Pretty frosty too once again, but the sun is taking care of it quickly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Sweet! Did later runs have the same idea? With a block like this, crazy stuff is inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Sweet! Did later runs have the same idea? 00z EPS has that look, albeit transient, in that timeframe Almost looks like an Aleutian low trying to get going with ridging building towards AK at 240 perhaps, maybe, potentially. Not sure, didn't look at day 11-15 ... I'm intrigued by this year, can't wait to see how it all shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Oh , there you are ..... The 1st signs of winter are beginning to show up by day 10 . As the EPO goes NEG ( There is a trough under the ridge on the WC ) . It will allow for HP to get aimed through the lakes . The Euro OP is hinting the 1st chance of snow for areas N and W before the month ends . Either way , you can see how the 850`s expand between day 9 thru 15 which is supported by the GFS ensembles so at the very least the last week of November looks to hint at the start of winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Looks like a transitional pattern the last week of November before the December El Nino pattern establishes itself. The storm track looks active with large 500 mb changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Looks like a transitional pattern the last week of November before the December El Nino pattern establishes itself. Agree , those low heights have to come out of Alaska and retrograde to a position SW of the Aleutians . I do like seeing the early signs of ridging on the WC of Canada . That should get forced N as the jet gets forced over the top. Lets just hope it gets stuck on the west shores of HB . As long as I don`t see a massive height field in central and eastern Canada I will live with transient for now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Agree , those low heights have to come out of Alaska and retrograde to a position SW of the Aleutians . I do like seeing the early signs of ridging on the WC of Canada . That should get forced N as the jet gets forced over the top. Lets just hope it gets stuck on the west shores of HB . As long as I don`t see a massive height field in central and eastern Canada I will live with transient for now . Yeah, we'll check the progress of the EPS the next few weeks to see how closely they conform with the Euro December monthly that came out on November 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Definitely a two week window for the interior northeast and Northern New England for some snow chances...obviously the pattern will be brief but I'm ready for some below avg temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Yeah, we'll check the progress of the EPS the next few weeks to see how closely they conform with the Euro December monthly that came out on November 8th. EPS has snow for our area on the 30th but that's in weenie land. I wouldn't be shocked to see our 1st flakes during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 We get a window of opportunity for our first flakes, even if just LES streamers while transient -EPO/-NAO is still in effect. Yep until the pattern gets warmer short after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Yep until the pattern gets warmer short after that. The 500mb wavelength changes look very impressive for the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 The 500mb wavelength changes look very impressive for the rest of the month. Even in transient patterns, you can get a snowstorm if timed right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 32 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 34 here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 What looked like a real torch of a week a few days ago now looks to top off in the low 60's for a day or two...over nights will be warm but the back door will save this week from being a all out torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 What looked like a real torch of a week a few days ago now looks to top off in the low 60's for a day or two...over nights will be warm but the back door will save this week from being a all out torch Yep, the warmth looks to have subsided. Still mild, but not 70s or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 What looked like a real torch of a week a few days ago now looks to top off in the low 60's for a day or two...over nights will be warm but the back door will save this week from being a all out torch The same can happen to the later cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Still very mild this week even if it never hits 70F. Mid 60s with lows from the mid 40s to low 50s is well above normal for latter November. Maybe a brief cool down for a couple days afterwards only to go back to more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Still very mild this week even if it never hits 70F. Mid 60s with lows from the mid 40s to low 50s is well above normal for latter November. Maybe a brief cool down for a couple days afterwards only to go back to more of the same. The 60's are over after this week for a while...pretty strong cold push comes in next weekend and then again around thanksgiving....12z euro has are first light snowfall next Sunday for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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