MJO812 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The overnight models have a colder look in the long range. Now to say if it will be transient or sustained is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 What are models showing for the low tomorrow morning and Sunday morning in the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 What are models showing for the low tomorrow morning and Sunday morning in the city? My forecasted low tomorrow is 38 and 40 for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Rooting for a record warm November from a meteorological perspective. I doubt NYC maintains a +8 but given the warming, I could see it staying just above a +5 to set the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Rooting for a record warm November from a meteorological perspective. I doubt NYC maintains a +8 but given the warming, I could see it staying just above a +5 to set the record. I give warmest at least 50% chance. There's so much warmth comming around and under the western trof. Once that warmth gets in to the ridge it's off the races and we get blasted with warmth. This continues in to December. It's going to take a full pattern shift for us to see cold and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I give warmest at least 50% chance. There's so much warmth comming around and under the western trof. Once that warmth gets in to the ridge it's off the races and we get blasted with warmth. This continues in to December. It's going to take a full pattern shift for us to see cold and snow Around day 13 thru 15 on the euro ensembles , you can start seeing where the ridge is starting to sniff out its iinitial position on the WC before it gets forced further N for the winter. The EPO begins to go neg as the trough begins to develop underneath it. Once the neg retrograde west and ultimately sw off the Alaska the ridge will get forced even further north and you will see the trough begin to develop in the SW by mid December . These pattern don't flip on a dime they take a long time to take shape but it's mid November and in a month from now the pattern will look at lot different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 NYCis averaging 58.5 so far for November...I think it becomes the warmest ever with a 53.0 or above final average... warmest Novembers... 52.7 in 200152.5 in 197952.4 in 194852.3 in 197551.9 in 201151.9 in 200651.9 in 199451.9 in 193151.5 in 190251.1 in 200950.8 in 1999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Gfs has a major snowstorm for Denver next week 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The GFS has a summer like backdoor look early next week, it doesn't really get all that warm till Wednesday and the real torch looks like it won't last more than a day or so (all relevant of course, we're not exactly frigid the rest of the week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Fast moving brush fire in SI threatening houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Anyone want to post the GFS MOS for the next week? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Greenland block showing up in the Euro. Fantasy range but its nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Fast moving brush fire in SI threatening houses. http://pix11.com/2015/11/13/fdny-battling-3-alarm-brush-fire-on-staten-island/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Pattern looks alot better in the long range on gfs and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 http://pix11.com/2015/11/13/fdny-battling-3-alarm-brush-fire-on-staten-island/ http://nycfire.net/forums/index.php/topic,39801.0.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Euro Eps is impressive with the -NAO. Really encouraging trends of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 GFSx does not seem as toasty as before, but still plenty AN. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Pattern looks alot better in the long range on gfs and euro. Because we all know how accurate Day 10+ model forecasts are. I'll say that there's an obvious descent closer to normal but there's a lot to get through (stating the obvious I know). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The Euro and GFS try and bring some of the El Nino STJ moisture north later next week. We'll see if the potential for rain holds or it fades out the closer we get. Classic Monmouth CO cutoff to the heavier rainfall so far with the strong El Nino STJ pattern this month. nws_precip_conus2_mtd.png Do we really have to bring up the heart break of feb 10? At least we got some snow in lb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 GFS is still trying to bring the area the first flakes around Turkey Day along with much colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Can we finally see the EPO and NAO go negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Do we really have to bring up the heart break of feb 10? At least we got some snow in lb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Today will be the 1st below normal day for the month and even at that will be -2 at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Today will be the 1st below normal day for the month and even at that will be -2 at best Since the beginning of the SON fall period NYC is running 61 above normal to 13 below normal days 9/1-11/13. +10 or greater days are beating -10 or greater by 17 to 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Cold turkey on the Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 +1 on the day at ewr unless they drop below 44 before midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 High of 49 in the park. When was the last time? What are the latest highs under 50 on record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 High of 49 in the park. When was the last time? What are the latest highs under 50 on record? KJFK came in at 51. October 19th was 52. Depending on what your baseline station is, the delay still stands but the record may already be surpassed for some locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 High of 49 in the park. When was the last time? What are the latest highs under 50 on record? It was much colder last November on the 14th with a high of only 42. 11/14/14 42 35 -10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Park down to 43 already before 8 pm. This was the morning low. The negative departure should go higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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