SnowGoose69 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I'm a fan the backloaded winter idea. I think we end up with at least some decent cold and snow. I also think it's a painfull road to get there As a whole backloaded winters are more likely to be snowy. The sometimes front loaded La Niñas we see just don't get it done like 89-90 because it's fairly hostile to see snow for many people in this area near the coast til mid or late December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 strong la Nina winters with an oni number -1.0 or lower for DJF had below average snowfall...the most snow was in 1973-74 with 23.5"...when the oni was higher than -1.0 there were snowy winters mixed in.. la nina winters...DJF ONI...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls... 1970-71..............-1.3.......32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4" 1995-96..............-0.9.......32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1" 2010-11..............-0.9.......32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0" 1955-56..............-0.9.......32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2" 1975-76..............-1.5.......34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"..........4.2" 4.0" 1973-74..............-1.7.......35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"..........6.0" 4.3" 1988-89..............-1.6.......35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"..........5.0" 1999-00..............-1.6.......36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"..........5.5" 2007-08..............-1.4.......36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"..........6.0" 1984-85..............-0.9.......36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1".........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1" 1949-50..............-1.4.......37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8"..........3.8" 1998-99..............-1.4.......38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7"..........4.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Latest 12Z GFS keeps rains NW and SE of here, but substitutes much colder air around here from the 21th.---27th than when precipitation shown was high during period. Wants temps. in city to range from upper 20's to just 50deg. during period. Total precipitation graphic for the 384 hrs. looks like a cookie w/o any filling! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151111+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Oh lawd @ 12z Euro and 0z EPS. Huge system over the Canadian Archipelago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Oh lawd @ 12z Euro and 0z EPS. Huge system over the Canadian Archipelago? Might not even need an oven to cook the turkey this Thanksgiving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Oh lawd @ 12z Euro and 0z EPS. Huge system over the Canadian Archipelago? Right as planned. Master blaster heat. I thought you can't post Euro stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Right as planned. Master blaster heat. I thought you can't post Euro stuff? It's available for free and in the public domain already on many sites. Some more detailed maps are paywalled tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Might not even need an oven to cook the turkey this Thanksgiving... TORCH CITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 TORCH CITY. That's not a torch. Its a big, strong, warm ridge. A torch is a fast pacific flow, not a big deep trough in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 That's not a torch. Its a big, strong, warm ridge. A torch is a fast pacific flow, not a big deep trough in the west. Yeah definitely, 500mb heights are lower in the equatorial tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 That's not a torch. Its a big, strong, warm ridge. A torch is a fast pacific flow, not a big deep trough in the west. I get the difference, but the sensible weather in our part of the country is well above normal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I get the difference, but the sensible weather in our part of the country is well above normal tempsIt's not a not a real meteorological term anyway.I think we haven't seen anything yet as far as AN temps. That pacifc warm pool ejecting warm air down and around the base of the troff is going to flood the east with a base line for record temps. It's the perfect storm of a Nino pattern the warm pool and massive ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 It's not a not a real meteorological term anyway. I think we haven't seen anything yet as far as AN temps. That pacifc warm pool ejecting warm air down and around the base of the troff is going to flood the east with a base line for record temps. It's the perfect storm of a Nino pattern the warm pool and massive ridge seen nothing yet as far as AN temps?..this is going to turn out to be the warmest November on record..Can't imagine December will be the warmest of all time too..we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Are we talking 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Euro does have 70's for next week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Through Nov 11 NYC: +8.1 EWR: +8.4 LGA: +8.2 JFK: +7.7 ISP: +7.4 TTN: +7.8 PHL: +8.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 seen nothing yet as far as AN temps?..this is going to turn out to be the warmest November on record..Can't imagine December will be the warmest of all time too..we'll see I think we have a potential for some insane departures at least for a good portion of December 10+ stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Through Nov 11 NYC: +8.1 EWR: +8.4 LGA: +8.2 JFK: +7.7 ISP: +7.4 TTN: +7.8 PHL: +8.9 Hideous! Give me -8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Here we go again with an island of cool in a hot ocean for Friday and Saturday. The roast begins next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Here we go again with an island of cool in a hot ocean for Friday and Saturday. The roast begins next week. Next week temp highs 60's would not be shocked to see some areas hit 70 but ..with that being said. .by December I have a gut feeling things will start aligning for snow chances ..just a hunch .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I think we have a potential for some insane departures at least for a good portion of December 10+ stuff. This is what happen in the post 9/11 period. Nov/Dec back to back warmest ever, Jan. #7 warmest and then Feb. 2002 was the warmest ever! 3 out of 4 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 The strong wind potential later on Friday looks interesting with the cold front. 40KT s is down to 950 mb in the CAA with and just after the cold frontal passage. Date: 42 hour AVN valid 0Z SAT 14 NOV 15Station: 40.70,-73.74Latitude: 40.70Longitude: -73.74-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1001 46 7.0 -0.8 57 7.9 3.6 259 22 280.1 280.7 276.7 290.1 3.59 1 1000 53 6.8 -2.2 52 9.1 3.0 260 24 280.0 280.5 276.2 289.1 3.24 2 950 472 3.4 -4.5 56 8.0 0.3 262 43 280.7 281.2 276.0 288.8 2.87 Gust to 50 possible? That will take care of the rest of the leaves for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Starting to look better by Turkey Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 This is what happen in the post 9/11 period. Nov/Dec back to back warmest ever, Jan. #7 warmest and then Feb. 2002 was the warmest ever! 3 out of 4 months.. The difference is the pattern didn't set in til mid to late November, October was largely cold unlike this year. Mild Octobers that continue as mild Novembers rarely carry over into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Through Nov 11 NYC: +8.1 EWR: +8.4 LGA: +8.2 JFK: +7.7 ISP: +7.4 TTN: +7.8 PHL: +8.9 To say the least those departures from normal are very impressive. I'm assuming if they held up it would be the warmest November on record for those locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 in case it stays warm until February these are the warmest November to January periods on record... winter....Nov-Jan...total snowfall...1948-49 in December and 1982-83 in February had major blizzards...1946-47 had a blizzard.in Feb... 2001-02...45.6.....3.5" 1931-32...45.4.....5.3" 2006-07...44.3...12.6" 2011-12...44.2.....7.4" 1994-95...43.9...11.8" 1948-49...43.1...46.6" 1990-91...42.6...24.9" 1982-83...42.6...27.2" 1979-80...42.4...12.8" 1946-47...41.9...30.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Park snuck in a 60 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Pattern starts to look a little better on the EPS towards turkey day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 It's unbelievable how bad the pattern will be for anyone remotely looking forward toward winter weather. I'm really interested to see how the departures stack up this month. We should pull several +10-15 (or greater) readings next week after the near normal temps the next 2-3 days and make those monthlies soar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 It's unbelievable how bad the pattern will be for anyone remotely looking forward toward winter weather. I'm really interested to see how the departures stack up this month. We should pull several +10-15 (or greater) readings next week after the near normal temps the next 2-3 days and make those monthlies soar. Oh jeeze. It'll come around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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