dmillz25 Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Warm and dry or cold and stormy? Discuss away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Warm and dry or cold and stormy? Discuss away Warm and stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Warm and dry. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Cold and stormy. That's my wishful thinking. Honestly, warm and stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Warm and stormy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Is this multiple choice...if so I take option B. Option B is what the CFS is selling for Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 Anything goes. I was just starting the November thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Just looking quickly at the guidance, the next few weeks should feature a rather active, but fast moving weather pattern with warm and sunny days followed by periods of rain, then cold before things warm up again, wash, rinse and repeat. Cutter happy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Warm and dry to start before getting progressively stormier. I'm fine with this Nov being the opposite of 97. However the warmth is so overwhelming that we might literally be starved of cold because there won't be much cold air to pull from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Good ensemble agreement on a warm start to November. Don't be surprised if temps return to the 70's Nov 1-7 as the SE Ridge really builds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Good ensemble agreement on a warm start to November. Don't be surprised if temps return to the 70's Nov 1-7 as the SE Ridge really builds. ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png B.png there have been a few warm starts to November during el nino years...1982 was 79 on election day...2003 was 79 also during the first few days of November...1968 had a few warm days also...all three years had a snowfall before the second half of December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Very warm look to the models to start November, perhaps by mid month we see things cool down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 A mild November. It will pay off really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 there have been a few warm starts to November during el nino years...1982 was 79 on election day...2003 was 79 also during the first few days of November...1968 had a few warm days also...all three years had a snowfall before the second half of December... Yeah, November warmth has been winning out so far for El Nino Novembers in the 2000's. Milder El Nino Novembers are ahead of cooler ones by a 3 to 2 lead. NYC 2000's El Nino November departures 2014....-2.4 2009...+4.1 2006...+4.8 2004...+1.1 2002....-1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 The CFS along with the Euro weeklies have a strong above normal temperature signal for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 October will end up averaging close to 58,2...out of the last 35 Octobers it would be tied for the 11th warmest...from 1940 to 1969 Octobers averaged 58.4...the 1970's-1990's were a degree cooler on average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Average heights and 2M temps. over Hudson Bay are slated to rise steadily from early Nov. to mid-Dec., leveling off at +(14-18)F. Accuweather long range shows just 7 of the next 45 days will be below normal. I will go with +4---6degs.(a new record if so)F for the month. A new daily record high will be set for the final 10 days of the month. Dec. too will be on its way to a record (ala 2001) when temps. crash around X-Mas and spoil the show. Lovers of cold weather set your alarms for one of last days of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Euro op was further north with Monday's rain event, gets decent rain amount to Phl now...something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 uncle W, on 30 Oct 2015 - 6:18 PM, said:October will end up averaging close to 58,2...out of the last 35 Octobers it would be tied for the 11th warmest...from 1940 to 1969 Octobers averaged 58.4...the 1970's-1990's were a degree cooler on average... Good radiational cooling on many days this month led to coolest Oct here since 2009....avg here will be around 55.5 degrees...significant difference from the 58.2 degree average you mentioned for knyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 CIK62, on 31 Oct 2015 - 08:46 AM, said:Average heights and 2M temps. over Hudson Bay are slated to rise steadily from early Nov. to mid-Dec., leveling off at +(14-18)F. Accuweather long range shows just 7 of the next 45 days will be below normal. I will go with +4---6degs.(a new record if so)F for the month. A new daily record high will be set for the final 10 days of the month. Dec. too will be on its way to a record (ala 2001) when temps. crash around X-Mas and spoil the show. Lovers of cold weather set your alarms for one of last days of the year! Using accuwx 45 day forecasts...tsk tsk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Using accuwx 45 day forecasts...tsk tsk. Yeah, I know how flimsy this is. Human meteorologists are not really directly involved with this anyway. It is just the nearest grid point output to a given city(from the analog output) that you want to know about over the next 45 days. Then Accuweather post-processes this output with historical records they have amassed for all their customer markets. This is so the analog does not fall off the wagon and indicate temps. and precip. amts. that have never occurred in the historical record. I was using Kyle MacRitchie experimental site from now to near year's end for my comments and threw in Accuweather's thoughts. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showcfs2mplots.php?lat=58.99531118795094&lon=-84.5068359375&z=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Good radiational cooling on many days this month led to coolest Oct here since 2009....avg here will be around 55.5 degrees...significant difference from the 58.2 degree average you mentioned for knyc. October average was 54.1F here, a full 4 degrees colder than NYC. -0.7 below average. Rainfall also made a comeback with 5.75" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 since 1931 which is 85 years NYC had 36 warmer Octobers than 2015...49 colder...2015 average was 58.0 in Central Park... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Pretty uniform October from Philly right up the LHV and into SW CT. NYC...+1.1 LGA...+0.3 JFK....+0.8 ISP.....+0.8 BDR...+0.9 EWR..+0.6 TTN....+0.7 PHL....+1.0 POU...+0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Pretty uniform October from Philly right up the LHV and into SW CT. NYC...+1.1 LGA...+0.3 JFK....+0.8 ISP.....+0.8 BDR...+0.9 EWR..+0.6 TTN....+0.7 PHL....+1.0 POU...+0.8 Kind of reminds me of June, which was a lot closer to normal compared to May, Aug-Sep, and it looks like November will follow the May and September type trends of warmth. Some staggering positive departures the first 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Kind of reminds me of June, which was a lot closer to normal compared to May, Aug-Sep, and it looks like November will follow the May and September type trends of warmth. Some staggering positive departures the first 10 days. The big ridge stayed far enough to our west in October to avoid the larger temperature departures of previous months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Accuweather still showing just 7 days in Nov. will be below normal. If you ask me, the first 3 weeks of Dec. will have even a worse ratio. Look at that experimental output I posted earlier in this forum. Not only is the mean temp. above normal over Hudson Bay for a whole month---till Dec. 20 say---not a single member of the ensemble is below normal during that stretch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 we might see 80 friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 we might see 80 friday with the arctic oscillation very positive that might happen...Certainly 75 or higher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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