OceanStWx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 ASOUT 75-80 and records..guess we do know climo ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE NOSING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER MAINLY DRY WITH ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN +10C AND +12C AND A RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERE...GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS ARE PROBABLY TOO COOL TRENDING TOO MUCH TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO DESPITE LOWERING SUN ANGLE/SHORTENING DAYS...HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE WELL UP INTO THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS REACH THE MIDDLE 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THU. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THU AND FRI. Why stop there, maybe a lolli to 90??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Why stop there, maybe a lolli to 90??? Some know climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 For the record, the records in question for Thursday are 79 BOS, 76 BDL, 75 PVD, and 73 ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 10-12C at 850 would be tough for U70s. There is an ULL over the south which is the opposite of a big heat signal. You really want a ridge there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Why stop there, maybe a lolli to 90??? It's just funny. I was the only one a week ago thinking records and 75-80 for a few days at the typical spots. Got accused of not knowing climo, etc etc. We'll see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 It's just funny. I was the only one a week ago thinking records and 75-80 for a few days at the typical spots. Got accused of not knowing climo, etc etc. We'll see how it plays out You had two days of 80. Mid 70s are reasonable and what most agree on. I still doubt 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 You had two days of 80. Mid 70s are reasonable and what most agree on. I still doubt 80. Stop making stuff up. I said 75-80. Since you like posting texts..post the one over a week ago where i said 70's and you said "no" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 It's just funny. I was the only one a week ago thinking records and 75-80 for a few days at the typical spots. Got accused of not knowing climo, etc etc. We'll see how it plays out Well those aren't mutually exclusive. Either way, we're going to need to improve mixing profiles to really exceed the mid 70s. Verbatim it would be generous to say the GFS mixes BOS out to 950 mb on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Stop making stuff up. I said 75-80. Since you like posting texts..post the one over a week ago where i said 70's and you said "no" You said 1-2 days will hit 80. You then laughed because I said no 80s. I said mid 70s was more reasonable and that mid to U70s have happened before and are not unheard of. Your habit of always forecasting extremes does not mean you know climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 You had two days of 80. Mid 70s are reasonable and what most agree on. I still doubt 80. He has long suffered from "Smartest Man in the Room Syndrome" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 He has long suffered from "Smartest Man in the Room Syndrome" Kindly explain to the good people here why most of your 187 posts are about me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Kindly explain to the good people here why most of your 187 posts are about me? Maybe you should take some time to reflect on how you conduct yourself on the forum. Honestly if I was a professional MET I wouldn't waste a second of my time trying to explain anything to you and/or try to increase your knowledge of meteorology. Too often you treat the METs on the board as your own personal":Court Jesters of Weather" how many times have you been threated with a 5 PPD?????.....do you think there may be a reason or 2 for that????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 I'd suggest you worry about yourself and less about others. Life is too short to be angry all the time. Enjoy the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 I'd suggest you worry about yourself and less about others. Life is too short to be angry all the time. Enjoy the weekend I'm not angry in the least bit. There is nothing to get angry about. Please do some reflecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Fight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 For the record, the records in question for Thursday are 79 BOS, 76 BDL, 75 PVD, and 73 ORH. I looked at then the other day...isn't it Friday at BDL that's vulnerable with like a 72F for the record. It's a weaker one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Kindly explain to the good people here why most of your 187 posts are about me Most of the posts here are about you. Take this page of posts right now...starts up top with some drought stuff aimed at you and then we move into your temperature discussion for the rest of the page of posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Well first 10 days of November are biased warm. Decent cold shot around the 9th it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 I don't know, Kevin - Maybe you were starved for attention as a youngster, and so now ... fortune and cosmos has delivered you an opportunity to make absurdities purely and solely for the intent of getting people to fill that void left over from your childhood. Because ... there is no way in 'sam hell' you believe what comes out of your own typing better than 50 % of the time, unless you are insane, period. So the best next logical explanation is that you do it on purpose, to garner said attention... Nice simple Akkum-like explanations tend to be true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Welp, noone who's been paying attention with an open mind should be surprised one iota that there is record talk (warm-wise) for this synoptic ridging event in the middle/late middle range period, centered 96 - 180 hours out from 10/31. Not that anyone hasn't considered - just sayin' We've been discussing the teleconnectors signaling specifically record warmth potentials, regardless of whether or not their operational versions have been flashing the same panache. I mentioned myself that the operational runs haven't been performing up to the stage set for them. Still ... at this time range and this time of year, one should be vigil of the fact that minor perturbations in the flow can have profounder impacts on the dailies. Canada is seasonally cooling off, even without a snow pack in regions the air up there is markedly chillier N of ambient gradient/polar boundary(s) at this point in time and going forward. Any mass at all slipping S will up-end a warm lower troposphere with extreme rapidity. Take the 00z GGEM. That run was a hoot! Truncates the warm departure interval with a sharp boundary, behind which cold air oozes in one of those deals where 850 mb looses 20 F in 20 hours without more than a 5 kt wind gust. Then, a flat wave/jet streak rides up the boundary and laps over the seasons first synoptic snows. yup, 70 F --> synoptic snows two days later. Likely to verify? Only when self-diluting. However, ... it does exemplify the fragility of warm air in November, and how quickly it can all be be eradicated. In fact, the Euro wasn't far off from something similar, nor was the GFS operational... 200 or so hours on the later models. Normally I would urge those runs are offering over-amplified scenarios during an era where the atmosphere has wended its way into a warm pattern. More likely, warm departures would merely dent to normalcy before rebounding right back above normal. In fact, that may yet be the case. However, there is a sneaky teleconnector, 2-4 day stint in there where the PNA recovers about a half an SD, just after a brief -EPO spike. That does signal, however weakly, a little cold loading first, then possibly getting that mass toward middle latitudes. It's all spatial/conceptual at this range, of course. When in a warm (or cool) pattern, opposing extended range ideas bear the burden of proof, not the other way around. So we'll see. But in the ferckockta world of verified weather that's been the yo-yo of the last 20 decades worth of insanity, ...does anyone doubt absurd warm, followed by a 2-3 day cold and snow, followed by more absurd warmth CAN'T happen? If you think so, you've been in a coma over the span of said decades. The "nature" of verification has been hugely unsettled relative to the behaved expectations that forged Rockwell art. There's always been curve-ball, out-of-season whack weather - don't get me wrong. But it seems transition seasons lately have featured increased frequency of those types of weird weather scenarios. I mean, snow in the air in May, meh. Simply have seen it too frequently now to be taken aback by it anymore. Same in October. If I saw snow before Halloween when as a child, that would have Earth shattering. Now I wonder why I haven't - Barring that ... I'd say the probability is for warm --> seasonal, then back to warm; that should characterize the next 2 weeks, keeping an open mind while that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Most has already fallen as rain, but why not...other than the fact that it's the gfs at 200hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Most of the posts here are about you. Take this page of posts right now...starts up top with some drought stuff aimed at you and then we move into your temperature discussion for the rest of the page of posts. Don't understand it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Pretty good cold blast next weekend it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Pretty good cold blast next weekend it appears in and out faster than wiz on prom night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Looks pretty solidly above average for the first couple weeks of November with only brief cool downs. Hopefully we can turn the page sometime after mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 in and out faster than wiz on prom night.Yup. Better than wire to wire 60's and 70's for the month though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Yup. Better than wire to wire 60's and 70's for the month though We'll save that for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 We'll save that for December. Get pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 3-4 months more of wx boredom. What a terrible wx year. Good Lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Get pumped. I had 15 inches of snow in 97, 9 in 82, and 11 in 87, I average 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.