40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2015 Author Share Posted November 23, 2015 meh, bl just too warm for this thing. cold november rain for the win. Never having paid it any mind ftw Wake me up....when November ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Define good? ORH averages maybe 3" in November and that average is a product of lousy Novembers and a rogue dumping. It's well established how bad he is with climatology. Never mind the variance aspect, if we look at actual snowfall events Hartford area averages 1.2 snow "events" greater than or equal to 0.1" in November. If we look at "a couple inches" they average about 0.4 events greater than or equal to 2". Even December averages only 1.6 2"+ events down there. But since cold season climo is actually based in ORH, those numbers are more like 0.5 and 1.9 for Nov/Dec 2"+ events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 00z EURO tries to thread the needle DEC 1-2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Interestingly, if you run the numbers for events greater than or equal to 2 inches by daily occurrence at ORH, December shows a couple dates or windows that have been pretty good to the weenies. You'll notice as the month goes on the ceilings are higher, and so are the floors. I threw on the 5 day moving average to show how the number of events by day does slant towards higher numbers by the end of the month, as you would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Mike, Is that you? Chris and PF have been channeling me of late. Interestingly, if you run the numbers for events greater than or equal to 2 inches by daily occurrence at ORH, December shows a couple dates or windows that have been pretty good to the weenies. You'll notice as the month goes on the ceilings are higher, and so are the floors. I threw on the 5 day moving average to show how the number of events by day does slant towards higher numbers by the end of the month, as you would expect. 2015-11-23_2-36-57.png December 8 sure sucks! lol 31.0/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Chris and PF have been channeling me of late. December 8 sure sucks! lol 31.0/21 It's not like ORH has a short period of record either, weird that a single date would get skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Oh how we pray, lol Euro 8-14" in fantasy land in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Happy happy happy birthday Jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Oh how we pray, lol Euro 8-14" in fantasy land in SNE Some QPF concerns there. Powderfreak smoking cirrus while Brian counts the flakes on his webcam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Closer in that front Sat night packs a punch. Should throw snow for CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Torched Turkeys and Black Fridays 60 s well worth the action Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Interestingly, if you run the numbers for events greater than or equal to 2 inches by daily occurrence at ORH, December shows a couple dates or windows that have been pretty good to the weenies. You'll notice as the month goes on the ceilings are higher, and so are the floors. I threw on the 5 day moving average to show how the number of events by day does slant towards higher numbers by the end of the month, as you would expect. 2015-11-23_2-36-57.png lol Dec 8 with the skunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Restless weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 No QPF from wxbell guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 No QPF from wxbell guys. ECMWF anyway right? They really watch that information like hawks. They are worried that people will reverse engineer Euro maps from our blended model guidance by removing the other models that go into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Dec 1-2 looks tasty on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Gfs now only has Friday as a torch day I think we may be saved by a south flow and clouds. Keep that true warm 65+ stuff up in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 I think we may be saved by a south flow and clouds. Keep that true warm 65+ stuff up in NNE What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 What? Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 REcurve More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Huh? What is it about climatology that refuses to enter your head? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 What is it about climatology that refuses to enter your head?Explain why 850's are Warner in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Explain why 850's are Warner in NNE Doubtful we're mixing that deep anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Explain why 850's are Warner in NNE By 1C? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Dec 1-2 looks tasty on Euro This is all "we" want....a synoptic plus upslope orgasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Some QPF concerns there. Powderfreak smoking cirrus while Brian counts the flakes on his webcam. I'm probably partly sunny in that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 ECMWF anyway right? They really watch that information like hawks. They are worried that people will reverse engineer Euro maps from our blended model guidance by removing the other models that go into it. yeah...but it's more about the disclaimer on the wxbell site about euro data posted elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 By 1C? Well my point was a south flow this time of year typically means SNE would be cooler than NNE in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Well my point was a south flow this time of year typically means SNE would be cooler than NNE in that setup.yeah...afterall we are in seabreeze season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 yeah...afterall we are in seabreeze season. WTF? Seasons in seasons has taken us back to April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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