dendrite Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 NAM has some weenie dynamic cooling allowing for snow to mix in at times from KTOL to about Scoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 NAM has some weenie dynamic cooling allowing for snow to mix in at times from KTOL to about Scoot. Yeah nothing exciting, but maybe a few flakes as I sleep. Any -ZR up there currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Massive cutter on the Euro days 9-10 in what was a chance at our first snow I'm sure it will change in 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 I'm sure it will change in 6 hrs. That would be one hell of a screamer though. Pattern seems more conducive to a cutter than a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 NAM has some weenie dynamic cooling allowing for snow to mix in at times from KTOL to about Scoot. I don't think any precip makes it anywhere near here. Maybe some rain clips New London to Moosup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 That would be one hell of a screamer though. Pattern seems more conducive to a cutter than a coastalyou would love the parameters put out by the Euro including gusts to 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 I don't think any precip makes it anywhere near here. Maybe some rain clips New London to MoosupEuro has snow from me to Scooter with a JP of an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Euro has snow from me to Scooter with a JP of an inchNAM gets snow back to near the river. Just have trouble seeing precip getting much farther west of Ri or your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 you would love the parameters put out by the Euro including gusts to 65Yeah when I saw the ops depiction.. That would be a real deal screamer. Like some of the memorable ones from the 90's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Yeah nothing exciting, but maybe a few flakes as I sleep. Any -ZR up there currently? I didn't get out in time to check. It was 32.5F with some -SHRA when I woke up...I'm sure there was some isolated glaze on some sfcs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 I think it's marvelously poetic/ironic that we're probably going to pull a +3 to +5 Novie just about everywhere, and can conjunct that same sentence (as I do right now...) with ANY chance of snow at all... Nice! In a sort of back-ground obscurity there lurks a sentiment of, "...this is what you get for arrogantly bitching in solemnity that winter is no where to be seen" Dipschits... shows what we know. Haha - even in the warmest years .. if nothing else, even having the chance to discuss underscores that at our latitude a +3 winter can be overcome. Seriously, for a narrow band, and given some razor luck, this could be the season's first synoptic snow this evening/tonight. Nothing major of course, but even measurable, counts. And, the upshot? the final result come tomorrow morning squarely places Tolland CT safely but teasingly, tauntingly and quite deliberately (as in, on purpose...) outside the, 'na na, na-na na' boundary where the dystopic hell of winter's bereaved neglected, burn in effigy. I suppose in an additional sort of poetic just deserts, Tolland's constant fanning of warm sensationalizing flames that have unrelentingly reminded us that 'no winter is our plight' as we head toward this ... as yet to be determined (mind you), infantile cold season, that Tolland is sent to the wrong address for tonight's party. Wah wah waaaah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 I think it's marvelously poetic/ironic that we're probably going to pull a +3 to +5 Novie just about everywhere, and can conjunct that same sentence (as I do right now...) with ANY chance of snow at all... Nice! In a sort of back-ground obscurity there lurks a sentiment of, "...this is what you get for arrogantly bitching in solemnity that winter is no where to be seen" Dipschits... shows what we know. Haha - even in the warmest years .. if nothing else, even having the chance to discuss underscores that at our latitude a +3 winter can be overcome. Seriously, for a narrow band, and given some razor luck, this could be the season's first synoptic snow this evening/tonight. Nothing major of course, but even measurable, counts. And, the upshot? the final result come tomorrow morning squarely places Tolland CT safely but teasingly, tauntingly and quite deliberately (as in, on purpose...) outside the, 'na na, na-na na' boundary where the dystopic hell of winter's bereaved neglected, burn in effigy. I suppose in an additional sort of poetic just deserts, Tolland's constant fanning of warm sensationalizing flames that have unrelentingly reminded us that 'no winter is our plight' as we head toward this ... as yet to be determined (mind you), infantile cold season, that Tolland is sent to the wrong address for tonight's party. Wah wah waaaah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Eps open met winter with a snow chance. Pretty freaking cold post thanksgiving weekend for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Anway ... despite the recent NAM's .10" trend west across three consecutive runs, the 'correction vector' still points east. Just bear that in mind. Most ANA QPF shields tend to be too liberal along their western edges as a general rule across all guidance - certainly American versions. Nice to have something to follow in the near term, tho, indeed. Later on after our two-day obsession enabling cold, we'll have to deal with returning warm anomalies this week. Hard to say how extreme that will be. Mean guidance has +10 C at 850 awashed over much of the area for a day and a half, may two. But it could be 'dirty warm sector' too. Beyond that, things get interesting to me. As I tried to point out yesterday, the PNA rising above 0 SD has very good continuity in GEFs at CDC, and as of last night, the CPC appeals incrementally better as well. Also, a side ... the AO has some spread beyond D7, but every member now setting back toward 0. Here's the thing with the polarward indices: The NAO is freak-show positive, but that doesn't matter (as much to chagrin of the local meme, is usually the case) when the natural progression of events is still west-to-east, and the NE Pac is cooperating. In this case, the EPO has a demonstrative negative interval lasting a week or more; plenty of time to cold load into western Canada. Most operational guidance agrees with that anyway, but the GEFs notion of +PNA lagging by ~ 3 to 4 days then serves as a relay south of the border into the U.S. Then, as +NAO -related zonal flow in the OV directs that cold toward regions along and N of the 40th parallel ... all hearkens to nothing usually warm to put it "mildly". Duh duh dunnn, kind of like the entire month of February last year? Obviously, nothing even close that extreme, but that general layout should end TG week and beyond into more of a pond icing, ..possible better landscape of probabilities for the snow cocaine people are constantly trembling in withdraws over - The other thing as we have this re-curving typhoon out there. I am wondering that perhaps 2 or 3 days from now ...whether we might see a new negative trend in the EPO prognostics. It would manifest as a toppling down of the positive in the deeper range, before eventually committing some 7 or 9 days out. I don't think that the presence of that particular tropical forcing is effecting the westerlies just yet, and should a SPV fragment time with it's arriving out of the west Pac, it will all deepen and correct NE Pac heights upward. That's basically how all that works... Meanwhile, El Nino rages underneath. Thing is, ..or crap, could go on forever, the nature of the entire Pacific Basin is warmer than normal, outside the excessive warmth of the ENSO signal. That means, in my mind, that this El Nino is likely not going to integrate an influence on the hemisiphere the same way - or has a greater chance to effect it differently than the stand correlation. What that is, we'll see, but the NE Pac warm node still correlates with the -EPO... Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 you would love the parameters put out by the Euro including gusts to 65 Light rain developing over southern Del. and southern NJ, moving NNE(check you messages). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 THE RISK FOR A VERY BRIEF CHANGE TO MIXED FROZEN PRECIP...MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AS PRECIP ENDS. TIMING IS CRUCIAL HERE...WHETHER THE COLD AIR ALOFT WINS OVER THE LOW LVL DRYING. FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD AT THE SFC DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND DWPTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. SO IN ANY CASE...IF THE BRIEF CHANGE OCCURS BEFORE ENDING...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOLLAND/WORCESTER COUNTIES E...AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE AND SE MA/COASTAL PLAIN WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM NEAR THE SFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Not even sure precip makes it that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 It won't. Said that this AM. Moosup east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 It won't. Said that this AM. Moosup east Precip extends all the way back into Bridgeport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 THE RISK FOR A VERY BRIEF CHANGE TO MIXED FROZEN PRECIP...MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AS PRECIP ENDS. TIMING IS CRUCIAL HERE...WHETHER THE COLD AIR ALOFT WINS OVER THE LOW LVL DRYING. FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD AT THE SFC DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND DWPTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. SO IN ANY CASE...IF THE BRIEF CHANGE OCCURS BEFORE ENDING...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOLLAND/WORCESTER COUNTIES E...AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE AND SE MA/COASTAL PLAIN WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM NEAR THE SFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Precip extends all the way back into Bridgeport.moving ENE. We miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 .4" on the day and coming down pretty good. Looks to continue well into the night too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 meh, bl just too warm for this thing. cold november rain for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Been raining pretty good in Marshfield for awhile. The drought worsens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 .4" on the day and coming down pretty good. Looks to continue well into the night too. Not a drop here, good mental preparation for the inevitable winter qpf woes W of ORH Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Not a drop here, good mental preparation for the inevitable winter qpf woes W of ORH Co. We are a snake bitten bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Not a drop here, good mental preparation for the inevitable winter qpf woes W of ORH Co. Mike, Is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Heavy pingers here in Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Heavy pingers here in Salem.was wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Gfs now only has Friday as a torch day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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