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Nippy Novie


40/70 Benchmark

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I think it's marvelously poetic/ironic that we're probably going to pull a +3 to +5 Novie just about everywhere, and can conjunct that same sentence (as I do right now...) with ANY chance of snow at all...   Nice! 

 

In a sort of back-ground obscurity there lurks a sentiment of, "...this is what you get for arrogantly bitching in solemnity that winter is no where to be seen" 

 

Dipschits... shows what we know. Haha - even in the warmest years .. if nothing else, even having the chance to discuss underscores that at our latitude a +3 winter can be overcome. 

 

Seriously, for a narrow band, and given some razor luck, this could be the season's first synoptic snow this evening/tonight.  Nothing major of course, but even measurable, counts.  

 

And, the upshot?  the final result come tomorrow morning squarely places Tolland CT safely but teasingly, tauntingly and quite deliberately (as in, on purpose...) outside the, 'na na, na-na na' boundary where the dystopic hell of winter's bereaved neglected, burn in effigy.

 

I suppose in an additional sort of poetic just deserts, Tolland's constant fanning of warm sensationalizing flames that have unrelentingly reminded us that 'no winter is our plight' as we head toward this ... as yet to be determined (mind you), infantile cold season, that Tolland is sent to the wrong address for tonight's party.  

 

Wah wah waaaah.  

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I think it's marvelously poetic/ironic that we're probably going to pull a +3 to +5 Novie just about everywhere, and can conjunct that same sentence (as I do right now...) with ANY chance of snow at all... Nice!

In a sort of back-ground obscurity there lurks a sentiment of, "...this is what you get for arrogantly bitching in solemnity that winter is no where to be seen"

Dipschits... shows what we know. Haha - even in the warmest years .. if nothing else, even having the chance to discuss underscores that at our latitude a +3 winter can be overcome.

Seriously, for a narrow band, and given some razor luck, this could be the season's first synoptic snow this evening/tonight. Nothing major of course, but even measurable, counts.

And, the upshot? the final result come tomorrow morning squarely places Tolland CT safely but teasingly, tauntingly and quite deliberately (as in, on purpose...) outside the, 'na na, na-na na' boundary where the dystopic hell of winter's bereaved neglected, burn in effigy.

I suppose in an additional sort of poetic just deserts, Tolland's constant fanning of warm sensationalizing flames that have unrelentingly reminded us that 'no winter is our plight' as we head toward this ... as yet to be determined (mind you), infantile cold season, that Tolland is sent to the wrong address for tonight's party.

Wah wah waaaah.

BAB952DF-F4A8-4066-BF05-22E3B9441791_zps
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Anway ... despite the recent NAM's .10" trend west across three consecutive runs, the 'correction vector' still points east.  Just bear that in mind.  Most ANA QPF shields tend to be too liberal along their western edges as a general rule across all guidance - certainly American versions.  

 

Nice to have something to follow in the near term, tho, indeed. 

 

Later on after our two-day obsession enabling cold, we'll have to deal with returning warm anomalies this week.  Hard to say how extreme that will be. Mean guidance has +10 C at 850 awashed over much of the area for a day and a half, may two. But it could be 'dirty warm sector' too.  Beyond that, things get interesting to me.

 

As I tried to point out yesterday, the PNA rising above 0 SD has very good continuity in GEFs at CDC, and as of last night, the CPC appeals incrementally better as well.  

 

Also, a side ... the AO has some spread beyond D7, but every member now setting back toward 0.   Here's the thing with the polarward indices:  The NAO is freak-show positive, but that doesn't matter (as much to chagrin of the local meme, is usually the case) when the natural progression of events is still west-to-east, and the NE Pac is cooperating.

 

In this case, the EPO has a demonstrative negative interval lasting a week or more; plenty of time to cold load into western Canada. Most operational guidance agrees with that anyway, but the GEFs notion of +PNA lagging by ~ 3 to 4 days then serves as a relay south of the border into the U.S.  Then, as +NAO -related zonal flow in the OV directs that cold toward regions along and N of the 40th parallel ... all hearkens to nothing usually warm to put it "mildly".  Duh duh dunnn, kind of like the entire month of February last year?  

 

Obviously, nothing even close that extreme, but that general layout should end TG week and beyond into more of a pond icing, ..possible better landscape of probabilities for the snow cocaine people are constantly trembling in withdraws over -

 

The other thing as we have this re-curving typhoon out there.  I am wondering that perhaps 2 or 3 days from now ...whether we might see a new negative trend in the EPO prognostics.  It would manifest as a toppling down of the positive in the deeper range, before eventually committing some 7 or 9 days out.  I don't think that the presence of that particular tropical forcing is effecting the westerlies just yet, and should a SPV fragment time with it's arriving out of the west Pac, it will all deepen and correct NE Pac heights upward.  That's basically how all that works...

 

Meanwhile, El Nino rages underneath.  Thing is, ..or crap, could go on forever, the nature of the entire Pacific Basin is warmer than normal, outside the excessive warmth of the ENSO signal.  That means, in my mind, that this El Nino is likely not going to integrate an influence on the hemisiphere the same way - or has a greater chance to effect it differently than the stand correlation.  What that is, we'll see, but the NE Pac warm node still correlates with the -EPO... Crazy 

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THE RISK FOR A VERY BRIEF CHANGE TO MIXED

FROZEN PRECIP...MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AS PRECIP

ENDS. TIMING IS CRUCIAL HERE...WHETHER THE COLD AIR ALOFT WINS

OVER THE LOW LVL DRYING. FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD AT THE SFC

DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND DWPTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW

40S. SO IN ANY CASE...IF THE BRIEF CHANGE OCCURS BEFORE

ENDING...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES WILL BE

TOLLAND/WORCESTER COUNTIES E...AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE AND SE

MA/COASTAL PLAIN WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM NEAR THE SFC.

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THE RISK FOR A VERY BRIEF CHANGE TO MIXED

FROZEN PRECIP...MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AS PRECIP

ENDS. TIMING IS CRUCIAL HERE...WHETHER THE COLD AIR ALOFT WINS

OVER THE LOW LVL DRYING. FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD AT THE SFC

DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND DWPTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW

40S. SO IN ANY CASE...IF THE BRIEF CHANGE OCCURS BEFORE

ENDING...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES WILL BE

TOLLAND/WORCESTER COUNTIES E...AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE AND SE

MA/COASTAL PLAIN WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM NEAR THE SFC.

:weenie:

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